PLAYER RATING · AF-PLAYER
AF-Player
COMPLETE RANKING
Every eligible player, in order
Showing the complete eligible population for 2025–26. Rank is within that season; no arbitrary row ceiling is applied. AF-Player is not a win probability. PH$ is not a salary, not a market value, not a contract figure, not a transfer suggestion. It carries no monetary value and is not redeemable or convertible.
PENDING SAMPLE
Pending is outside the ranking
Pending is not a low rating. A player ProbHoops has not observed enough of carries no AF-Player and no PH$ at all, and never receives an artificial last rank. Use the Sample control above to inspect pending rows separately.
METHOD
Why this formulation
Five formulations were declared in advance, fitted on 2019–2023 and gated before the 2024–2025 holdout was opened. The first selection rule picked the most stable candidate — and that rule turned out to be confounded, because scoring is the most persistent thing a player carries between seasons. A scoring-only index measured 0.8213 stable, higher than every composite: ranking by stability was, at the limit, ranking by points.
So stability became a floor and differentiation became the objective. The published formulation, efficiency_tilt_v1, correlates 0.5764 with a per-36 scoring ranking against 0.7924 for the runner-up.
Box defence carries the smallest weight in every candidate and is named Box Defensive Contribution, because a box score measures individual defence badly and the label should say so.
