Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Jaylen Brown
Philadelphia 76ers current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER51.72025–26
NBA RANK#88of 409
PH$22MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN34.2governed role
NEXT GAME@ New York Knicks2026-10-20WHAT IF IMPACT-0.5 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN34.6
PTS28.7
REB7.0
AST5.2
STL0.9
BLK0.4
3PM1.9
FG%47.4%
3P%33.6%
FT%79.4%
+/-+3.8
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Philadelphia 76ers
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED27.91pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G16.8 PTS · 3.6 REB · 1.4 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G29 PTS · 6 REB · 4.8 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G15.6 PTS · 3.1 REB · 2.3 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G25.6 PTS · 6.6 REB · 4 AST
creation→
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS48.1%4053/8425
2-POINT54.6%3042/5575
3-POINT35.5%1011/2850
FREE THROW75.8%1724/2275
EFFECTIVE FG%54.1%
TRUE SHOOTING%57.5%
AST / TO1.34
PTS PER 3625.43rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 232 | 34.24 | 24.66 | 6.26 | 3.74 | 2.3 | 1.16 | 0.36 |
| Away | 215 | 34.42 | 23.81 | 6.21 | 3.63 | 2.22 | 1.07 | 0.42 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.2 | +0.8 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | -0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3.69 | high |
| minutes | 30 | 35 | 38 | 34.33 | low |
| points | 18 | 24 | 30 | 24.25 | medium |
| rebounds | 4 | 6 | 9 | 6.23 | medium |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES6614.8% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES61.3% of games
10+ ASSISTS81.8%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | vs NOP | 29 | 29.78 | -2.6% | 23 | 8/13 | 6/10 | 2/3 | 5/7 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +24.0 | 72% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs CHA | 43 | 25.34 | +69.7% | 35 | 13/29 | 10/19 | 3/10 | 6/7 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +9.0 | 55% |
| 2026-04-05 | vs TOR | 35 | 25.71 | +36.2% | 26 | 11/20 | 10/17 | 1/3 | 3/5 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +13.0 | 59% |
| 2026-04-01 | @ MIA | 37 | 25.53 | +44.9% | 43 | 17/29 | 13/19 | 4/10 | 5/7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +9.0 | 67% |
| 2026-03-30 | @ ATL | 40 | 24.37 | +64.1% | 29 | 9/29 | 6/20 | 3/9 | 8/14 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | -5.0 | 41% |
| 2026-03-25 | vs OKC | 39 | 34.73 | +12.3% | 31 | 9/17 | 8/14 | 1/3 | 12/14 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | +7.0 | 67% |
| 2026-03-22 | vs MIN | 35 | 34.19 | +2.4% | 29 | 9/26 | 7/20 | 2/6 | 9/11 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -8.0 | 47% |
| 2026-03-20 | @ MEM | 38 | 31.15 | +22% | 30 | 10/23 | 8/18 | 2/5 | 8/8 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +9.0 | 57% |
| 2026-03-18 | vs GSW | 35 | 31.55 | +10.9% | 32 | 11/20 | 10/16 | 1/4 | 9/9 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +23.0 | 67% |
| 2026-03-16 | vs PHX | 40 | 29.27 | +36.6% | 41 | 10/20 | 8/15 | 2/5 | 19/21 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +9.0 | 70% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS89.5%60/67 games
10+ REBOUNDS19.4%13/67 games
5+ ASSISTS50.7%34/67 games
2+ THREES56.7%38/67 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | BOS | 67 | 34.6 | 28.7 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 47.4% | 33.6% | 79.4% |
| 2024–25 | BOS | 63 | 34.3 | 22.2 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 46.3% | 32.4% | 76.4% |
| 2023–24 | BOS | 69 | 33.4 | 23.0 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 49.9% | 35.6% | 70.3% |
| 2022–23 | BOS | 67 | 36.0 | 26.6 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 49.1% | 33.5% | 76.4% |
| 2021–22 | BOS | 66 | 33.6 | 23.6 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 47.3% | 35.8% | 75.8% |
| 2020–21 | BOS | 58 | 34.5 | 24.7 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 48.5% | 39.7% | 76.4% |
| 2019–20 | BOS | 57 | 33.9 | 20.3 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 48.1% | 38.2% | 72.4% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | BOS | 74 | 51.7 | #88 / 409 | 22M | Core |
| 2024–25 | BOS | 74 | 48.4 | #144 / 422 | 18.5M | Core |
| 2023–24 | BOS | 88 | 52.2 | #89 / 409 | 22.6M | Core |
| 2022–23 | BOS | 87 | 50.2 | #96 / 408 | 22.3M | Core |
| 2021–22 | BOS | 89 | 52.3 | #85 / 423 | 23.3M | Core |
| 2020–21 | BOS | 58 | 54.2 | #67 / 410 | 22.3M | Core |
| 2019–20 | BOS | 74 | 47.1 | #126 / 385 | 19.4M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER51.7descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#88of 409 ranked
PH$22MCore
SAMPLE74observed games
Ball security56
Box defence27
Creation46
Efficiency45
Rebounding35
Scoring93
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+3.4 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+12.7 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGESTABLE-0.5 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY51-0.5 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
BOS
Boston Celtics
EXPECTED MIN29.9
SCORING SHARE25.2%
CREATION SHARE21.6%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR77.7%
-6.51 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 37 normal-load / 7 nonparticipation games.