CURRENT GOVERNED FORECAST
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PLAYER WHAT IF · PRE-GAME COUNTERFACTUAL
What changes if a player is OUT?
2026–27 GAME
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Only games using the promoted player-aware overlay can run a What If scenario. Exact incumbent-fallback games remain available as forecasts but their counterfactual is withheld.
WHAT IF SCENARIO
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PROBABILITY IMPACT
0.00 pp
Difference from the exact current governed Game Win forecast.
ROTATION SCENARIO
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Select a player below; the scenario recalculates automatically.
AWAY
0 / 3 OUT—
HOME
0 / 3 OUT—
MODEL SENSITIVITY
Most impactful players for this game
This ranking is the promoted model's counterfactual response to removing one player and safely reallocating the rotation. It is not a causal estimate of that player's real-world value.
Choose a game to load eligible impacts.
E66 · WHO ABSORBS THE MINUTES?
Rotation + player projection changes
Run a valid OUT scenario to see who receives the reallocated minutes and how PTS / REB / AST / 3PM projections change under the same player-stat projection model.
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FAIL-CLOSED METHOD
What this simulator will not do
Cold starts, unsupported roles and zero-minute players never receive new minutes merely to make a scenario work.
Historical residualized with/without evidence remains descriptive context. It is never multiplied into the current win probability.
The score authority remains adjusted_efficiency_score_v1. What If changes only the promoted Game Win overlay.
If the remaining supported rotation cannot close exactly 240 minutes under the 42-minute cap, the scenario is withheld.