Clear probabilitiesPublished from the governed current-season runtime, with exact fail-closed fallback when player evidence is incomplete.
2026–27 · GAME FORECASTS ACTIVE
What we know before tip-off.
UP NEXT
Next scheduled NBA game
FORECAST STATUS
1,200 game forecasts are live
Assigned games1,200NBA Official schedule
Pregame forecasts1,200Game Win + projected score
NBA Cup pending30Not fabricated
Season/championship probabilities remain withheld until the remaining NBA Cup-dependent regular-season matchups are assigned. Individual game forecasts are already active.
Validated accuracyFormal temporal out-of-sample evaluation.
Measured performanceAF-Score describes what teams produced on court.
What-If readyDeterministic scenarios on governed NBA rules.
WHAT PROBHOOPS KNOWS NOW
Four signals already worth explaining
LAST SEASON PERFORMANCE
San Antonio SpursAF-Score 77.3
Boston Celtics+20.6
San Antonio Spurs#1 of all 30 NBA teams in the complete 2025–26 field. AF-Score is performance, not probability.
BIGGEST 2025–26 RISERBoston CelticsAF-Score from Game 10 to Final · #19 → #5 in the same 30-team full-observed field.
GAME-WIN MODEL EVIDENCE65.66%+39 calls vs Elo5,282 formal OOS games · lower Log Loss than Classic Elo in 4/4 seasons.
PLAYER MILESTONES · HISTORICAL84.45%1,527,999 OOS eventsConditional on the player being active. Separate from game-win accuracy and still withheld for current 2026–27.
MY TEAM
Your favorite team
Quick access to the canonical team profile. Your choice is stored only in this browser.
2025–26 FINAL PERFORMANCE
What the last completed season says
AF-Score is ProbHoops’ descriptive 0–100 performance index. It is era-adjusted, pace-aware and not a win probability. All seven historical seasons now use complete observed team boxes for all 30 teams.
Oklahoma City Thunder74.2
New York Knicks70.5Scoring leaderDenver Nuggets98.6Defense leaderOklahoma City Thunder94.0Possession leaderBoston Celtics87.1Historical archive7 seasons2019–2026
Full-observed rebuild: all 30 teams now have 100% observed regular-season detailed team-box coverage for every historical season. No normalization or imputation is used.
MODEL CORE
Adjusted Efficiency + Elo
The promoted game-win champion combines opponent-adjusted efficiency with Elo and propagates outcomes through audited NBA season and postseason rules.
75% Adjusted Efficiency · 25% Elo
2026–27 FORECAST
LIVE
1,200 pregame forecasts are active
Current forecasts are published only when roster, schedule and operational data satisfy the production contract.
Seven seasons of canonical historical NBA data.
Team performance reconstructed after every accepted regular-season game.
2022–2025 held out for game-win champion governance.
THE SYSTEM
Prediction and performance stay separate
Game modelPregame win probability and score projection.
AF-ScoreDescriptive 0–100 performance index; never a probability.
Season engineOfficial standings, Play-In, bracket and series rules.
Monte CarloFull-season propagation only after forecasts are eligible.
METHOD
How the model works
From canonical NBA data to temporal validation, league simulation and publication gates.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
NBA history
A concise timeline of league and rule changes that matter to basketball — and to season-aware modeling.
TRANSPARENCY
Trust without a score
Model accuracy, data integrity and publication readiness are reported separately.