PROBHOOPS · NBA ANALYTICS · TEAMS · PLAYERS · PROBABILITIES
ProbHoops
FIND ANYTHING

Teams & players

Start typing to search the ProbHoops directory.

Tip: press / anywhere to search.

PLAYER + TEAM MOVEMENT · PRESEASON

Movement

PLAYER MOVEMENT · E67

AF-Player and PH$ movers

2024-25 to 2025-26

This is observed consecutive-season movement among current-roster players with eligible AF-Player in both completed seasons. Current 2026–27 AF-Player movement remains pending until current-season AF-Player exists. PH$ movement remains fictional game-currency movement, never money.

AF-PLAYER RISERS

1
Jordan MillerLAC · #+285 rank places
+67.0 pp2
Alex SarrWAS · #+240 rank places
+56.4 pp3
Tidjane SalaünCHA · #+238 rank places
+55.2 pp4
GG JacksonMEM · #+229 rank places
+53.3 pp5
Kyshawn GeorgeWAS · #+228 rank places
+52.8 pp6
Isaiah CollierUTA · #+226 rank places
+52.5 pp7
Keyonte GeorgeUTA · #+200 rank places
+47.2 pp8
Pelle LarssonMIA · #+203 rank places
+47.0 pp9
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL · #+199 rank places
+46.4 pp10
Kyle KuzmaMIL · #+194 rank places
+44.6 pp

AF-PLAYER FALLERS

1
Larry Nance Jr.IND · -319 rank places
-78.7 pp2
Khris MiddletonWAS · -253 rank places
-62.7 pp3
Jaylen ClarkMIN · -241 rank places
-60.2 pp4
Tyus JonesDEN · -230 rank places
-57.6 pp5
Caris LeVertMIL · -208 rank places
-52.1 pp6
Christian KolokoNOP · -203 rank places
-51.1 pp7
Keon EllisBKN · -199 rank places
-49.9 pp8
Aaron NesmithIND · -198 rank places
-49.6 pp9
Jordan PooleNOP · -188 rank places
-46.9 pp10
Jordan ClarksonNYK · -182 rank places
-46.0 pp
PH$ GAINERJordan Miller+11.2M
PH$ FALLERChristian Braun-12.6M
CURRENT MOVEMENTPendingrequires 2026–27 AF-Player

2025–26 · FROM GAME 10 TO FINAL

The biggest performance swings

30/30 full observed

The comparison field contains all 30 teams, observed at both endpoints. Game 10 is compared with the final regular-season state, so every starting point represents the same number of games played. AF-Score points are descriptive index points — never win probability.

BIGGEST AF-SCORE RISERBoston Celtics
+20.6AF-Score points
Game 10 49.0 · #19→Final 69.6 · #5

Largest positive move in the complete 2025–26 comparison field.

BIGGEST AF-SCORE FALLERMilwaukee Bucks
−20.4AF-Score points
Game 10 49.8 · #16→Final 29.4 · #26

Largest negative move in the same complete 30-team comparison field.

BIGGEST RANK GAINBoston Celtics+14 places#19 → #5
BIGGEST RANK LOSSChicago Bulls-12 places#9 → #21
COMPARISON FIELD30/30 teams100% observedsame 30-team set at both endpoints

WHAT DROVE THE MOVE?

Arithmetic decomposition, not a causal story

fixed AF-Score weights

Every overall change is reconstructed from the five AF-Score dimensions. A contribution of +7.4 means that dimension added 7.4 index points to the observed AF-Score change. It does not claim that the dimension caused wins, losses or future outcomes.

Boston Celtics+20.6
Scoring+8.8
Defense+5.9
Possession+2.2
Creation−0.2
Discipline+4.0

Largest contribution: Scoring +8.8 AF-Score points.

Milwaukee Bucks−20.4
Scoring−7.7
Defense−5.5
Possession−6.0
Creation−1.8
Discipline+0.6

Largest contribution: Scoring −7.7 AF-Score points.

2025–26 LEADERBOARD MOVEMENT

Top risers and fallers

Game 10 → Final

RISERS

1
Boston Celtics#19 → #5 · +14 places
+20.62
Charlotte Hornets#20 → #11 · +9 places
+12.83
San Antonio Spurs#5 → #1 · +4 places
+11.54
Detroit Pistons#7 → #3 · +4 places
+10.95
Toronto Raptors#14 → #8 · +6 places
+10.2

FALLERS

1
Milwaukee Bucks#16 → #26 · -10 places
−20.42
Chicago Bulls#9 → #21 · -12 places
−16.73
Memphis Grizzlies#22 → #25 · -3 places
−12.94
Sacramento Kings#25 → #28 · -3 places
−11.85
Denver Nuggets#1 → #6 · -5 places
−9.7

SEVEN-SEASON MOVEMENT ARCHIVE

Largest Game 10 → Final swing each year

2019–20 → 2025–26

Full-observed comparison: every season uses all 30 teams at Game 10 and final. Historical missing boxes were recovered before this rebuild; no normalization or imputation is used.

2026–27 PERFORMANCE MOVEMENT · CONTINUITY READY

No 2026–27 performance movement yet

The season has not started. Current AF-Score is persisted only from verified final detailed team box scores. Every snapshot is revision-aware and incorporates the immutable final-box SHA, so an official correction creates a new auditable revision instead of rewriting history.

FORECAST MOVEMENT · SEPARATE SYSTEM

What changed in probabilities?

governed release diff

Performance Movement above describes what teams produced on court. Forecast Movement below answers a different question: how public probabilities changed between two eligible releases. It remains gated until two current 2026–27 releases exist.

FORECAST STATUS

Checking eligible release history…

Reading the active movement contract.

No deterministic operational probability movement is published yet.