Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Larry Nance Jr.
Indiana Pacers current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER28.02025–26
NBA RANK#391of 409
PH$5.3MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN17.1governed role
NEXT GAME@ New Orleans Pelicans2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN11.9
PTS3.3
REB2.5
AST0.9
STL0.6
BLK0.1
3PM0.6
FG%39.6%
3P%34.0%
FT%57.1%
+/--0.8
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Indiana Pacers
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED5.46pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0.8 PTS · 0.2 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G2.6 PTS · 2 REB · 0.6 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G1 PTS · 0.6 REB · 0.2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT9 G3.78 PTS · 2.44 REB · 0.89 AST
creation→
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS53.0%914/1724
2-POINT61.1%708/1159
3-POINT36.5%206/565
FREE THROW69.0%232/336
EFFECTIVE FG%59.0%
TRUE SHOOTING%60.5%
AST / TO2.21
PTS PER 3611.78rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 160 | 22.95 | 7.78 | 5.62 | 1.95 | 0.69 | 0.98 | 0.43 |
| Away | 153 | 21.25 | 6.68 | 5.29 | 1.9 | 0.63 | 1 | 0.39 |
| Home − Away | — | +1.7 | +1.1 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.1 | -0.0 | +0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1.93 | high |
| minutes | 16 | 21.7 | 28.2 | 22.12 | medium |
| points | 2 | 6 | 12 | 7.24 | high |
| rebounds | 3 | 5 | 8 | 5.46 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES258.0% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | @ ATL | 16 | 2.81 | +469.4% | 4 | 2/2 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -17.0 | 100% |
| 2026-03-31 | @ LAL | 12 | 1.19 | +907.1% | 2 | 1/4 | 1/2 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +13.0 | 25% |
| 2026-03-27 | vs MIA | 4 | 0.48 | +729.3% | 4 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 1/2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -7.0 | 106% |
| 2026-03-13 | @ DAL | 7 | 1.62 | +332.8% | 6 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +5.0 | 150% |
| 2026-03-09 | vs PHI | 4 | 1.84 | +117.9% | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -8.0 | — |
| 2026-02-25 | @ MIL | 8 | 3.86 | +107.4% | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.0 | — |
| 2026-02-19 | vs BKN | 12 | 4.79 | +150.3% | 0 | 0/3 | 0/1 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -7.0 | 0% |
| 2026-02-11 | vs WAS | 5 | 5.34 | -6.4% | 3 | 1/2 | 0/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +6.0 | 75% |
| 2026-02-04 | @ LAC | 8 | — | — | 8 | 3/4 | 1/1 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +5.0 | 100% |
| 2026-02-01 | @ POR | 9 | — | — | 0 | 0/2 | 0/1 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -5.0 | 0% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS0.0%0/31 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/31 games
5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/31 games
2+ THREES12.9%4/31 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | CLE | 31 | 11.9 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 39.6% | 34.0% | 57.1% |
| 2024–25 | ATL | 24 | 19.3 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 51.6% | 44.7% | 69.2% |
| 2023–24 | NOP | 60 | 19.9 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 57.6% | 41.3% | 77.0% |
| 2022–23 | NOP | 65 | 21.3 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 61.0% | 33.3% | 69.6% |
| 2021–22 | NOPPOR | 46 | 22.6 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 52.2% | 32.9% | 70.2% |
| 2020–21 | CLE | 34 | 31.3 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 47.0% | 35.4% | 61.7% |
| 2019–20 | CLE | 53 | 26.6 | 10.1 | 7.4 | 2.3 | 52.7% | 34.4% | 66.7% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | CLE | 33 | 28.0 | #391 / 409 | 5.3M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | ATL | 24 | 54.3 | #72 / 422 | 14.9M | Rotation |
| 2023–24 | NOP | 66 | 54.0 | #77 / 409 | 18.2M | Core |
| 2022–23 | NOP | 65 | 55.8 | #47 / 408 | 19.8M | Core |
| 2021–22 | NOP | 54 | 48.5 | #123 / 423 | 15.5M | Core |
| 2020–21 | CLE | 34 | 42.1 | #220 / 410 | 10.3M | Rotation |
| 2019–20 | CLE | 53 | 51.3 | #79 / 385 | 18.3M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER28.0descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#391of 409 ranked
PH$5.3MDepth
SAMPLE33observed games
Ball security38
Box defence42
Creation29
Efficiency17
Rebounding48
Scoring18
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-26.4 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-78.7 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+5.8 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
CLE
Cleveland Cavaliers
EXPECTED MIN5.7
SCORING SHARE2.8%
CREATION SHARE3.1%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR50.0%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.