Final audited reference season.
Indiana PacersEAST · CENTRAL
Indiana Pacers
Canonical ProbHoops team profile. Forecast and movement data are published only when the current release passes the operational governance gates.
out
30 NBA Cup-dependent regular-season matchups remain unassigned.
2026–27 · ASSIGNED SCHEDULE INTELLIGENCE
Forecast path ahead
Sum of governed win probabilities over 80 assigned games only — not an 82-game projection.
49.7% opponent expected-win rate · #1 is toughest.
Starts only after verified final detailed boxscores.
NEXT 5
Upcoming assigned games
2025–26 PERFORMANCE REFERENCE
AF-Score 29.2
Indiana Pacers finished the last completed season with an AF-Score of 29.2, ranked #27 of 30 in the full historical field. This describes observed team performance; it is not a 2026–27 forecast and not a win probability.
Scoring25.3
Defense27.2
Possession19.7
Creation59.7
Discipline29.4
SAME-GAMES-PLAYED EVOLUTION
How the 2025–26 profile developed
GAME 536.0
GAME 1036.0
GAME 2030.5
GAME 4127.8
GAME 6027.4
FINAL29.2
AF-SCORE HISTORY
Seven-season performance trail
2019–2058.7#10/30
2020–2150.5#14/30
2021–2239.7#23/30
2022–2340.0#25/30
2023–2456.4#15/30
2024–2561.1#9/30
2025–2629.2#27/30
All seven completed seasons now use complete 30-team, full-observed historical fields. Current 2026–27 AF-Score starts only after verified final team box scores arrive.
E67 · ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Depth, dependency and profile fit
Team Depth uses the current governed Expected Minutes allocation and the latest eligible AF-Player observations. Star Dependency combines AF-Player percentile with the player’s governed next-game What If impact percentile within this team. It is model dependency, not causal truth.
Expected-minute-weighted rated rotation.
Mechanical role split, not official bench.
Share of the governed 240-minute team accounting carrying eligible AF-Player.
Expected Minutes concentration only.
STAR DEPENDENCY
No governed next-game What If dependency sample is available for this roster.
PROFILE FIT · box defense
Statistical profile examples only. Not a trade recommendation.
Paul ReedDET · box defense80Mitchell RobinsonBOS · box defense79Ausar ThompsonDET · box defense75Robert Williams IIIPOR · box defense71Goga BitadzeORL · box defense70PLAYER ROLE & IMPACT · 2025–26
Who carried the largest pregame role?
These player rows summarize pregame-known role and workload from the last completed season. With/without values, when shown, are residualized historical diagnostics with sample-size gates — not causal injury estimates.
PLAYERPascal Siakam
EXPECTED MIN31.6
SCORING SHARE21.6%
CREATION SHARE16.2%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR84.3%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERJarace Walker
EXPECTED MIN24.3
SCORING SHARE9.6%
CREATION SHARE9.3%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR86.7%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERAndrew Nembhard
EXPECTED MIN24.3
SCORING SHARE13.1%
CREATION SHARE27.2%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR70.2%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERAaron Nesmith
EXPECTED MIN22.5
SCORING SHARE12.4%
CREATION SHARE6.4%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR68.1%
WITH/WITHOUT-0.30 residual pts
PLAYERJay Huff
EXPECTED MIN18.9
SCORING SHARE7.9%
CREATION SHARE4.3%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR86.7%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERBen Sheppard
EXPECTED MIN18.6
SCORING SHARE5.6%
CREATION SHARE7.9%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR77.3%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERT.J. McConnell
EXPECTED MIN16.5
SCORING SHARE8.0%
CREATION SHARE17.5%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR86.2%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERBennedict Mathurin
EXPECTED MIN15.4
SCORING SHARE18.6%
CREATION SHARE9.3%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR51.3%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
NBA OFFICIAL AVAILABILITY
Current player status
Checking the governed NBA Official availability state.
GAME DAY
Operational status
Checking today and upcoming NBA game state.
PLAYER MILESTONES
Conditional-on-active probabilities
Current rows stay withheld until deterministic NBA-official pre-tip availability is integrated.
MOVEMENT
Release-to-release change
Movement requires two eligible published probability releases from the same season.
Attribution rule
ProbHoops does not infer a cause from a probability delta. A movement driver can be canonical only when deterministic counterfactual provenance reproduces the observed change.