Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Andrew Nembhard
Indiana Pacers current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER47.42025–26
NBA RANK#139of 409
PH$15.1MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN29.3governed role
NEXT GAME@ New Orleans Pelicans2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN31.8
PTS16.4
REB2.9
AST8.0
STL0.8
BLK0.2
3PM1.7
FG%43.9%
3P%34.6%
FT%82.0%
+/--6.6
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Indiana Pacers
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED31.92pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G16 PTS · 2.8 REB · 12 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G4.2 PTS · 0.6 REB · 3.9 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G15.2 PTS · 3 REB · 10.2 AST
creation↑
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS45.9%1021/2225
2-POINT52.7%749/1421
3-POINT33.8%272/804
FREE THROW80.5%338/420
EFFECTIVE FG%52.0%
TRUE SHOOTING%55.0%
AST / TO2.93
PTS PER 3613.83rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 123 | 28.53 | 10.59 | 2.76 | 5.12 | 1.13 | 1 | 0.15 |
| Away | 122 | 27.81 | 11.07 | 2.7 | 5.17 | 1.09 | 1 | 0.16 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.7 | -0.5 | +0.1 | -0.1 | +0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 2 | 5 | 7.2 | 5.15 | high |
| minutes | 23 | 30 | 33 | 28.17 | low |
| points | 5 | 10 | 15.2 | 10.82 | high |
| rebounds | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2.73 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES187.3% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS229.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | vs MIA | 36 | 31.36 | +14.8% | 15 | 6/12 | 4/6 | 2/6 | 1/1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +11.0 | 60% |
| 2026-03-27 | vs LAC | 32 | 31.28 | +2.3% | 13 | 4/13 | 2/6 | 2/7 | 3/3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | +8.0 | 45% |
| 2026-03-25 | vs LAL | 34 | 30.6 | +11.1% | 14 | 3/9 | 1/3 | 2/6 | 6/6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +4.0 | 60% |
| 2026-03-23 | @ ORL | 35 | 28.77 | +21.7% | 13 | 5/9 | 4/6 | 1/3 | 2/2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | +4.0 | 66% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ SAS | 28 | 29.19 | -4.1% | 25 | 8/13 | 6/9 | 2/4 | 7/9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -16.0 | 74% |
| 2026-03-13 | vs NYK | 32 | 31.59 | +1.3% | 8 | 3/14 | 3/11 | 0/3 | 2/2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -14.0 | 27% |
| 2026-03-08 | @ POR | 28 | 32.67 | -14.3% | 14 | 5/11 | 3/7 | 2/4 | 2/4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -22.0 | 55% |
| 2026-03-06 | @ LAL | 31 | 32.31 | -4% | 17 | 7/14 | 6/8 | 1/6 | 2/2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -14.0 | 57% |
| 2026-03-04 | @ LAC | 24 | 33.02 | -27.3% | 5 | 1/5 | 1/2 | 0/3 | 3/5 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -15.0 | 35% |
| 2026-02-02 | vs HOU | 32 | — | — | 7 | 2/5 | 1/3 | 1/2 | 2/3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -9.0 | 55% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS30.9%13/42 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/42 games
5+ ASSISTS90.5%38/42 games
2+ THREES54.8%23/42 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | IND | 42 | 47.4 | #139 / 409 | 15.1M | Core |
| 2024–25 | IND | 84 | 40.0 | #271 / 422 | 12M | Rotation |
| 2023–24 | IND | 85 | 43.7 | #193 / 409 | 14.4M | Rotation |
| 2022–23 | IND | 75 | 32.7 | #347 / 408 | 7.8M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER47.4descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#139of 409 ranked
PH$15.1MCore
SAMPLE42observed games
Ball security55
Box defence20
Creation89
Efficiency41
Rebounding12
Scoring57
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+1.6 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+30.3 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGESTABLE-2.5 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
IND
Indiana Pacers
EXPECTED MIN24.3
SCORING SHARE13.1%
CREATION SHARE27.2%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR70.2%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.