Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Aaron Nesmith
Indiana Pacers current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER34.02025–26
NBA RANK#337of 409
PH$6.8MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN0.0governed role
NEXT GAME@ New Orleans Pelicans2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN30.7
PTS13.8
REB4.3
AST2.1
STL0.7
BLK0.4
3PM2.3
FG%39.8%
3P%35.9%
FT%79.5%
+/--4.7
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Indiana Pacers
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED23.88pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G14.4 PTS · 3.4 REB · 1.2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G4 PTS · 1 REB · 0.3 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G15.3 PTS · 3.1 REB · 1.9 AST
creation↓
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS45.1%1057/2345
2-POINT53.6%575/1073
3-POINT37.9%482/1272
FREE THROW82.3%404/491
EFFECTIVE FG%55.4%
TRUE SHOOTING%58.6%
AST / TO1.35
PTS PER 3615.08rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 162 | 23.04 | 9.91 | 3.62 | 1.11 | 1.58 | 0.69 | 0.41 |
| Away | 157 | 21.86 | 8.89 | 3.17 | 1.22 | 1.44 | 0.64 | 0.39 |
| Home − Away | — | +1.2 | +1.0 | +0.5 | -0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.17 | high |
| minutes | 13.7 | 24 | 31 | 22.46 | medium |
| points | 3 | 9 | 15 | 9.4 | high |
| rebounds | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3.39 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES20.6% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | vs LAC | 35 | 29.97 | +16.8% | 26 | 10/14 | 6/9 | 4/5 | 2/2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -11.0 | 87% |
| 2026-03-25 | vs LAL | 32 | 28.58 | +12% | 14 | 6/13 | 4/5 | 2/8 | 0/2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | +11.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-23 | @ ORL | 35 | 26.29 | +33.2% | 19 | 6/11 | 1/3 | 5/8 | 2/2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +6.0 | 80% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ SAS | 25 | 27.15 | -7.9% | 5 | 2/7 | 1/4 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -22.0 | 36% |
| 2026-03-18 | vs POR | 26 | 26.88 | -3.3% | 15 | 6/13 | 5/8 | 1/5 | 2/2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -16.0 | 54% |
| 2026-03-13 | vs NYK | 34 | 29.15 | +16.6% | 12 | 5/13 | 4/8 | 1/5 | 1/1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -17.0 | 45% |
| 2026-03-08 | @ POR | 25 | 30.74 | -18.7% | 9 | 4/6 | 3/3 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4.0 | 75% |
| 2026-03-06 | @ LAL | 23 | 31.58 | -27.2% | 7 | 3/10 | 2/4 | 1/6 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4.0 | 35% |
| 2026-03-04 | @ LAC | 20 | 32.93 | -39.3% | 2 | 1/8 | 1/4 | 0/4 | 0/1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -19.0 | 12% |
| 2026-02-02 | vs HOU | 33 | — | — | 17 | 6/13 | 3/6 | 3/7 | 2/3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -6.0 | 59% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS14.7%5/34 games
10+ REBOUNDS5.9%2/34 games
5+ ASSISTS8.8%3/34 games
2+ THREES64.7%22/34 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | IND | 34 | 34.0 | #337 / 409 | 6.8M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | IND | 65 | 48.9 | #139 / 422 | 16M | Core |
| 2023–24 | IND | 90 | 42.9 | #203 / 409 | 14.6M | Rotation |
| 2022–23 | IND | 73 | 35.1 | #314 / 408 | 8.3M | Depth |
| 2021–22 | BOS | 91 | 21.8 | #420 / 423 | 5.4M | Depth |
| 2020–21 | BOS | 77 | 30.4 | #365 / 410 | 5.9M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER34.0descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#337of 409 ranked
PH$6.8MDepth
SAMPLE34observed games
Ball security63
Box defence25
Creation26
Efficiency31
Rebounding28
Scoring46
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role
AF MOVEMENT-49.6 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-30.7 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
IND
Indiana Pacers
EXPECTED MIN22.5
SCORING SHARE12.4%
CREATION SHARE6.4%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR68.1%
-0.30 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 18 normal-load / 3 nonparticipation games.