Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
T.J. McConnell
Indiana Pacers current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER53.42025–26
NBA RANK#70of 409
PH$15.9MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN14.6governed role
NEXT GAME@ New Orleans Pelicans2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN17.2
PTS9.1
REB2.4
AST5.0
STL1.1
BLK0.2
3PM0.3
FG%53.1%
3P%31.6%
FT%86.7%
+/--1.9
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Indiana Pacers
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED16.37pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G11.2 PTS · 2.2 REB · 7.2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G3.4 PTS · 0.7 REB · 1.5 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G9.3 PTS · 2.2 REB · 5.6 AST
creation↑
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring↑
HOT historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS53.5%1679/3138
2-POINT55.4%1578/2851
3-POINT35.2%101/287
FREE THROW79.0%263/333
EFFECTIVE FG%55.1%
TRUE SHOOTING%56.7%
AST / TO3.48
PTS PER 3615.57rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 218 | 19.59 | 8.52 | 2.89 | 5.23 | 0.24 | 1.16 | 0.23 |
| Away | 209 | 20.75 | 8.92 | 2.87 | 5.35 | 0.23 | 1.16 | 0.2 |
| Home − Away | — | -1.2 | -0.4 | +0.0 | -0.1 | +0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 3 | 5 | 7.8 | 5.29 | high |
| minutes | 15.2 | 19.1 | 24.5 | 20.16 | medium |
| points | 4 | 8 | 13 | 8.72 | high |
| rebounds | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2.88 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES194.5% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES20.5% of games
10+ ASSISTS286.6%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | vs MIA | 18 | 16.59 | +8.5% | 15 | 6/8 | 4/5 | 2/3 | 1/1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +15.0 | 89% |
| 2026-03-27 | vs LAC | 13 | 17.39 | -25.3% | 2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.0 | 100% |
| 2026-03-25 | vs LAL | 14 | 17.95 | -22% | 17 | 8/10 | 8/10 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -11.0 | 81% |
| 2026-03-23 | @ ORL | 20 | 17.12 | +16.8% | 13 | 6/6 | 5/5 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.0 | 108% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ SAS | 17 | 16.75 | +1.5% | 4 | 2/8 | 2/6 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -10.0 | 25% |
| 2026-03-18 | vs POR | 20 | 16.58 | +20.6% | 7 | 3/5 | 3/5 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -17.0 | 60% |
| 2026-03-13 | vs NYK | 20 | 17.27 | +15.8% | 10 | 5/9 | 5/9 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1.0 | 56% |
| 2026-03-08 | @ POR | 17 | 17.16 | -0.9% | 6 | 2/7 | 2/7 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.0 | 38% |
| 2026-03-06 | @ LAL | 18 | 17.13 | +5.1% | 10 | 5/10 | 5/10 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -9.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-04 | @ LAC | 16 | 16.87 | -5.1% | 6 | 3/6 | 3/6 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -8.0 | 50% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS2.4%1/42 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/42 games
5+ ASSISTS54.8%23/42 games
2+ THREES7.1%3/42 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | IND | 42 | 17.2 | 9.1 | 2.4 | 5.0 | 53.1% | 31.6% | 86.7% |
| 2024–25 | IND | 74 | 18.0 | 9.2 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 51.6% | 30.6% | 74.7% |
| 2023–24 | IND | 71 | 18.2 | 10.2 | 2.7 | 5.5 | 55.6% | 40.9% | 79.0% |
| 2022–23 | IND | 75 | 20.4 | 8.7 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 54.3% | 44.1% | 85.3% |
| 2021–22 | IND | 27 | 24.1 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 48.1% | 30.3% | 82.6% |
| 2020–21 | IND | 69 | 26.0 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 55.9% | 31.3% | 68.8% |
| 2019–20 | IND | 69 | 18.6 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 5.0 | 52.3% | 31.3% | 83.3% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | IND | 42 | 53.4 | #70 / 409 | 15.9M | Core |
| 2024–25 | IND | 98 | 52.1 | #94 / 422 | 18.8M | Core |
| 2023–24 | IND | 89 | 55.7 | #57 / 409 | 20.5M | Core |
| 2022–23 | IND | 75 | 50.0 | #99 / 408 | 17.1M | Core |
| 2021–22 | IND | 28 | 45.3 | #172 / 423 | 11.5M | Rotation |
| 2020–21 | IND | 74 | 49.6 | #115 / 410 | 18.5M | Core |
| 2019–20 | IND | 73 | 43.4 | #175 / 385 | 12.5M | Rotation |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER53.4descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#70of 409 ranked
PH$15.9MCore
SAMPLE42observed games
Ball security69
Box defence54
Creation89
Efficiency40
Rebounding23
Scoring58
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+54.9 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+5.2 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGESTABLE-2.5 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
IND
Indiana Pacers
EXPECTED MIN16.5
SCORING SHARE8.0%
CREATION SHARE17.5%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR86.2%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.