Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Paul Reed
Detroit Pistons current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER62.32025–26
NBA RANK#11of 409
PH$20.2MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN8.1governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Boston Celtics2026-10-20WHAT IF IMPACT-1.3 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN13.7
PTS7.2
REB4.3
AST1.2
STL0.7
BLK0.9
3PM0.2
FG%57.9%
3P%28.6%
FT%66.3%
+/-+0.5
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Detroit Pistons
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED15.7pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G4.6 PTS · 4 REB · 0.4 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G8.2 PTS · 4.8 REB · 1.4 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G7 PTS · 4.3 REB · 1.3 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G9 PTS · 5.2 REB · 0.8 AST
creation↑
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS55.4%704/1272
2-POINT58.5%662/1132
3-POINT30.0%42/140
FREE THROW69.2%198/286
EFFECTIVE FG%57.0%
TRUE SHOOTING%59.0%
AST / TO1.31
PTS PER 3614.94rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 153 | 12.15 | 4.96 | 3.92 | 0.83 | 0.1 | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| Away | 159 | 13.28 | 5.59 | 4.06 | 0.87 | 0.17 | 0.78 | 0.79 |
| Home − Away | — | -1.1 | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.85 | high |
| minutes | 5 | 12 | 20 | 12.73 | high |
| points | 2 | 4 | 9 | 5.28 | high |
| rebounds | 1 | 4 | 7 | 3.99 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES165.1% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | @ CHA | 10 | 18.97 | -47.3% | 4 | 2/4 | 2/3 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +6.0 | 50% |
| 2026-04-06 | @ ORL | 19 | 18.54 | +2.5% | 9 | 4/7 | 3/5 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -24.0 | 64% |
| 2026-04-04 | @ PHI | 18 | 17.2 | +4.7% | 10 | 4/5 | 4/4 | 0/1 | 2/4 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +8.0 | 74% |
| 2026-04-02 | vs MIN | 16 | 16.93 | -5.5% | 4 | 2/4 | 2/4 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-31 | vs TOR | 13 | 17.98 | -27.7% | 10 | 5/6 | 5/6 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +4.0 | 83% |
| 2026-03-30 | @ OKC | 34 | 15.53 | +119% | 21 | 7/13 | 6/11 | 1/2 | 6/8 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | -5.0 | 64% |
| 2026-03-28 | @ MIN | 17 | 14.83 | +14.6% | 12 | 4/7 | 4/7 | 0/0 | 4/4 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +13.0 | 69% |
| 2026-03-25 | vs ATL | 11 | 14.65 | -24.9% | 6 | 3/7 | 3/6 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -15.0 | 43% |
| 2026-03-23 | vs LAL | 15 | 14.22 | +5.5% | 8 | 4/7 | 4/7 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3.0 | 57% |
| 2026-03-20 | vs GSW | 23 | 11.82 | +94.6% | 15 | 6/12 | 6/9 | 0/3 | 3/6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +6.0 | 51% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS3.7%2/54 games
10+ REBOUNDS5.6%3/54 games
5+ ASSISTS3.7%2/54 games
2+ THREES0.0%0/54 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | DET | 63 | 62.3 | #11 / 409 | 20.2M | Core |
| 2024–25 | DET | 49 | 49.5 | #130 / 422 | 12.2M | Rotation |
| 2023–24 | PHI | 89 | 49.0 | #125 / 409 | 16.2M | Core |
| 2022–23 | PHI | 80 | 51.1 | #85 / 408 | 15.6M | Core |
| 2021–22 | PHI | 72 | 48.9 | #118 / 423 | 13.1M | Rotation |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER62.3descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#11of 409 ranked
PH$20.2MCore
SAMPLE63observed games
Ball security41
Box defence80
Creation26
Efficiency72
Rebounding88
Scoring60
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+84.6 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+28.2 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-5.0 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY89-1.3 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
DET
Detroit Pistons
EXPECTED MIN9.5
SCORING SHARE5.9%
CREATION SHARE3.8%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR68.1%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.