Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Jarace Walker
Indiana Pacers current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER37.02025–26
NBA RANK#304of 409
PH$8.2MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN0.0governed role
NEXT GAME@ New Orleans Pelicans2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN25.1
PTS11.0
REB4.6
AST2.2
STL0.7
BLK0.3
3PM1.8
FG%42.0%
3P%38.7%
FT%79.0%
+/--4.8
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Indiana Pacers
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED20.62pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G3.4 PTS · 0.8 REB · 0.4 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G16 PTS · 5 REB · 2.6 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G3.7 PTS · 1.1 REB · 0.7 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G14.6 PTS · 5.3 REB · 2.8 AST
creation→
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring↑
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS43.8%397/906
2-POINT48.3%217/449
3-POINT39.4%180/457
FREE THROW74.9%137/183
EFFECTIVE FG%53.8%
TRUE SHOOTING%56.3%
AST / TO1.53
PTS PER 3614.58rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 82 | 16.65 | 7.16 | 3.16 | 1.48 | 1.21 | 0.51 | 0.29 |
| Away | 74 | 18.64 | 7.08 | 3.43 | 1.77 | 1.09 | 0.81 | 0.39 |
| Home − Away | — | -2.0 | +0.1 | -0.3 | -0.3 | +0.1 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1.62 | high |
| minutes | 7 | 18 | 27 | 17.59 | high |
| points | 2 | 6 | 12 | 7.12 | high |
| rebounds | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3.29 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES10.6% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | vs PHI | 29 | 20.59 | +40.8% | 17 | 6/13 | 2/6 | 4/7 | 1/2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +3.0 | 61% |
| 2026-03-27 | vs LAC | 4 | 32.02 | -87.5% | 5 | 2/3 | 1/2 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +6.0 | 83% |
| 2026-03-25 | vs LAL | 30 | 31.48 | -4.7% | 15 | 5/9 | 1/1 | 4/8 | 1/2 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -9.0 | 76% |
| 2026-03-23 | @ ORL | 33 | 30.63 | +7.7% | 20 | 7/13 | 5/8 | 2/5 | 4/5 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2.0 | 66% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ SAS | 35 | 28.69 | +22% | 21 | 8/10 | 3/3 | 5/7 | 0/0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -10.0 | 105% |
| 2026-03-18 | vs POR | 33 | 28.41 | +16.2% | 10 | 4/11 | 2/7 | 2/4 | 0/0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -10.0 | 46% |
| 2026-03-13 | vs NYK | 38 | 28.7 | +32.4% | 18 | 6/14 | 3/5 | 3/9 | 3/4 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 2026-03-08 | @ POR | 31 | 27.21 | +13.9% | 14 | 5/8 | 3/4 | 2/4 | 2/2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -10.0 | 79% |
| 2026-03-06 | @ LAL | 27 | 27.03 | -0.1% | 10 | 4/9 | 3/6 | 1/3 | 1/2 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +9.0 | 51% |
| 2026-03-04 | @ LAC | 31 | 25.85 | +19.9% | 17 | 6/12 | 5/8 | 1/4 | 4/4 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +2.0 | 62% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS9.6%5/52 games
10+ REBOUNDS1.9%1/52 games
5+ ASSISTS11.5%6/52 games
2+ THREES51.9%27/52 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | IND | 52 | 37.0 | #304 / 409 | 8.2M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | IND | 84 | 39.8 | #277 / 422 | 8.8M | Depth |
| 2023–24 | IND | 43 | 34.6 | #338 / 409 | 6M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER37.0descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#304of 409 ranked
PH$8.2MDepth
SAMPLE52observed games
Ball security58
Box defence30
Creation31
Efficiency38
Rebounding28
Scoring43
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role
AF MOVEMENT-8.7 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-25.1 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
IND
Indiana Pacers
EXPECTED MIN24.3
SCORING SHARE9.6%
CREATION SHARE9.3%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR86.7%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.