Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Ausar Thompson
Detroit Pistons current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER44.22025–26
NBA RANK#189of 409
PH$15MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN29.4governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Boston Celtics2026-10-20WHAT IF IMPACT+0.4 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN26.2
PTS10.0
REB5.8
AST3.2
STL1.9
BLK0.9
3PM0.1
FG%52.3%
3P%27.3%
FT%57.2%
+/-+4.9
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Detroit Pistons
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED27.29pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G6.8 PTS · 2.6 REB · 2.8 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G9.2 PTS · 5.8 REB · 5.6 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G6 PTS · 4.2 REB · 3.3 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G9.6 PTS · 6.3 REB · 4.9 AST
creation↑
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding→
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS51.4%755/1470
2-POINT55.8%717/1286
3-POINT20.6%38/184
FREE THROW60.1%261/434
EFFECTIVE FG%52.6%
TRUE SHOOTING%54.5%
AST / TO1.75
PTS PER 3614.02rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 93 | 24.77 | 10.1 | 5.84 | 2.44 | 0.26 | 1.68 | 0.94 |
| Away | 95 | 24.64 | 9.16 | 5.73 | 2.53 | 0.15 | 1.42 | 0.78 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.1 | +0.9 | +0.1 | -0.1 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.2 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2.48 | high |
| minutes | 19 | 25 | 31 | 24.71 | low |
| points | 6 | 9 | 14 | 9.62 | high |
| rebounds | 3 | 6 | 8 | 5.78 | medium |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES84.3% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | @ CHA | 25 | 27.27 | -8.3% | 12 | 5/8 | 5/8 | 0/0 | 2/3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | +3.0 | 64% |
| 2026-04-06 | @ ORL | 31 | 26.31 | +17.8% | 8 | 4/5 | 4/5 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -18.0 | 80% |
| 2026-04-04 | @ PHI | 25 | 27.38 | -8.7% | 14 | 7/11 | 7/11 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +27.0 | 64% |
| 2026-04-02 | vs MIN | 31 | 27.01 | +14.8% | 7 | 3/6 | 3/6 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +15.0 | 51% |
| 2026-03-31 | vs TOR | 26 | 26.12 | -0.5% | 5 | 2/6 | 2/6 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +15.0 | 36% |
| 2026-03-30 | @ OKC | 26 | 25.51 | +1.9% | 8 | 3/5 | 3/5 | 0/0 | 2/6 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | +19.0 | 52% |
| 2026-03-28 | @ MIN | 24 | 25.19 | -4.7% | 6 | 3/6 | 3/6 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +10.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-25 | vs ATL | 37 | 23.6 | +56.8% | 18 | 9/11 | 9/11 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | +10.0 | 82% |
| 2026-03-23 | vs LAL | 36 | 18.49 | +94.7% | 6 | 3/11 | 3/11 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +1.0 | 26% |
| 2026-03-20 | vs GSW | 25 | 15.7 | +59.2% | 8 | 4/10 | 4/9 | 0/1 | 0/2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +17.0 | 37% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS1.5%1/66 games
10+ REBOUNDS6.1%4/66 games
5+ ASSISTS25.8%17/66 games
2+ THREES0.0%0/66 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | DET | 80 | 44.2 | #189 / 409 | 15M | Core |
| 2024–25 | DET | 65 | 49.4 | #134 / 422 | 15.5M | Core |
| 2023–24 | DET | 63 | 38.1 | #285 / 409 | 9M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER44.2descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#189of 409 ranked
PH$15MCore
SAMPLE80observed games
Ball security37
Box defence75
Creation47
Efficiency38
Rebounding57
Scoring28
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-11.6 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-14.5 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGESTABLE+2.4 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY47+0.4 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
DET
Detroit Pistons
EXPECTED MIN25.3
SCORING SHARE8.8%
CREATION SHARE12.6%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR83.6%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.