Final audited reference season.
Atlanta HawksEAST · SOUTHEAST
Atlanta Hawks
Canonical ProbHoops team profile. Forecast and movement data are published only when the current release passes the operational governance gates.
playoff direct
30 NBA Cup-dependent regular-season matchups remain unassigned.
2026–27 · ASSIGNED SCHEDULE INTELLIGENCE
Forecast path ahead
Sum of governed win probabilities over 80 assigned games only — not an 82-game projection.
49.8% opponent expected-win rate · #1 is toughest.
Starts only after verified final detailed boxscores.
NEXT 5
Upcoming assigned games
2025–26 PERFORMANCE REFERENCE
AF-Score 61.7
Atlanta Hawks finished the last completed season with an AF-Score of 61.7, ranked #10 of 30 in the full historical field. This describes observed team performance; it is not a 2026–27 forecast and not a win probability.
Scoring53.0
Defense63.0
Possession53.5
Creation96.6
Discipline57.4
SAME-GAMES-PLAYED EVOLUTION
How the 2025–26 profile developed
GAME 546.6
GAME 1053.0
GAME 2058.8
GAME 4154.7
GAME 6052.4
FINAL61.7
AF-SCORE HISTORY
Seven-season performance trail
2019–2022.0#30/30
2020–2157.4#11/30
2021–2258.2#10/30
2022–2352.3#15/30
2023–2445.8#21/30
2024–2553.3#15/30
2025–2661.7#10/30
All seven completed seasons now use complete 30-team, full-observed historical fields. Current 2026–27 AF-Score starts only after verified final team box scores arrive.
E67 · ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Depth, dependency and profile fit
Team Depth uses the current governed Expected Minutes allocation and the latest eligible AF-Player observations. Star Dependency combines AF-Player percentile with the player’s governed next-game What If impact percentile within this team. It is model dependency, not causal truth.
Expected-minute-weighted rated rotation.
Mechanical role split, not official bench.
Share of the governed 240-minute team accounting carrying eligible AF-Player.
Expected Minutes concentration only.
STAR DEPENDENCY
Jalen Johnson1 governed next-game sample90dependency-1.5 pp if OUTDyson Daniels1 governed next-game sample78dependency-1.6 pp if OUTDevin Carter1 governed next-game sample67dependency-1.8 pp if OUTTony Bradley1 governed next-game sample62dependency-1.4 pp if OUTNickeil Alexander-Walker1 governed next-game sample57dependency-1.2 pp if OUTPROFILE FIT · rebounding
Statistical profile examples only. Not a trade recommendation.
Rudy GobertMIN · rebounding94Mitchell RobinsonBOS · rebounding93Donovan ClinganPOR · rebounding93Jalen DurenDET · rebounding93Kel'el WareMIL · rebounding93PLAYER ROLE & IMPACT · 2025–26
Who carried the largest pregame role?
These player rows summarize pregame-known role and workload from the last completed season. With/without values, when shown, are residualized historical diagnostics with sample-size gates — not causal injury estimates.
PLAYERNickeil Alexander-Walker
EXPECTED MIN31.0
SCORING SHARE17.3%
CREATION SHARE12.7%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR84.2%
WITH/WITHOUT-1.40 residual pts
PLAYERJalen Johnson
EXPECTED MIN30.4
SCORING SHARE18.9%
CREATION SHARE25.6%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR78.5%
WITH/WITHOUT-3.37 residual pts
PLAYERDyson Daniels
EXPECTED MIN30.0
SCORING SHARE9.7%
CREATION SHARE19.0%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR82.5%
WITH/WITHOUT+8.55 residual pts
PLAYEROnyeka Okongwu
EXPECTED MIN27.7
SCORING SHARE13.0%
CREATION SHARE10.3%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR80.7%
WITH/WITHOUT+3.69 residual pts
PLAYERCJ McCollum
EXPECTED MIN27.2
SCORING SHARE16.0%
CREATION SHARE13.5%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR85.6%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERZaccharie Risacher
EXPECTED MIN17.9
SCORING SHARE8.5%
CREATION SHARE3.5%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR74.2%
WITH/WITHOUT-4.59 residual pts
PLAYERVit Krejci
EXPECTED MIN17.9
SCORING SHARE7.4%
CREATION SHARE4.6%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR76.0%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERJonathan Kuminga
EXPECTED MIN16.5
SCORING SHARE11.9%
CREATION SHARE8.0%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR64.9%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
NBA OFFICIAL AVAILABILITY
Current player status
Checking the governed NBA Official availability state.
GAME DAY
Operational status
Checking today and upcoming NBA game state.
PLAYER MILESTONES
Conditional-on-active probabilities
Current rows stay withheld until deterministic NBA-official pre-tip availability is integrated.
MOVEMENT
Release-to-release change
Movement requires two eligible published probability releases from the same season.
Attribution rule
ProbHoops does not infer a cause from a probability delta. A movement driver can be canonical only when deterministic counterfactual provenance reproduces the observed change.