Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Aaron Wiggins
Atlanta Hawks current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER32.52025–26
NBA RANK#356of 409
PH$7.1MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN0.0governed role
NEXT GAME@ Orlando Magic2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN21.6
PTS9.3
REB3.0
AST1.6
STL0.9
BLK0.4
3PM1.5
FG%43.2%
3P%35.3%
FT%73.5%
+/-+3.1
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Atlanta Hawks
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED11.35pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G2.4 PTS · 0.6 REB · 0.2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G4.2 PTS · 1 REB · 0.4 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G2.9 PTS · 0.5 REB · 0.3 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G6 PTS · 2 REB · 1.1 AST
creation↓
efficiency↓
minutes↓
rebounding↓
scoring↓
COLD historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS48.8%1114/2285
2-POINT56.7%747/1318
3-POINT38.0%367/967
FREE THROW78.5%299/381
EFFECTIVE FG%56.8%
TRUE SHOOTING%59.0%
AST / TO1.49
PTS PER 3615.39rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 170 | 20.08 | 8.42 | 3.14 | 1.39 | 1.07 | 0.66 | 0.31 |
| Away | 164 | 20.48 | 8.92 | 3.15 | 1.36 | 1.13 | 0.77 | 0.23 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.0 | +0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | +0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.38 | high |
| minutes | 12.6 | 20 | 27 | 20.27 | medium |
| points | 3 | 7 | 13 | 8.66 | high |
| rebounds | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3.14 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES30.9% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | @ LAC | 4 | 10.92 | -63.4% | 2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3.0 | 100% |
| 2026-04-07 | @ LAL | 20 | 8.27 | +141.7% | 10 | 4/7 | 2/3 | 2/4 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +4.0 | 71% |
| 2026-04-05 | vs UTA | 8 | 8.98 | -10.9% | 0 | 0/3 | 0/1 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4.0 | 0% |
| 2026-04-02 | vs LAL | 13 | 10.55 | +23.2% | 7 | 3/6 | 2/2 | 1/4 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2.0 | 58% |
| 2026-03-30 | vs DET | 17 | 9.4 | +80.9% | 10 | 4/8 | 2/3 | 2/5 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4.0 | 63% |
| 2026-03-23 | @ PHI | 11 | 14.39 | -23.5% | 5 | 2/4 | 1/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +6.0 | 63% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ WAS | 21 | 15.97 | +31.5% | 5 | 2/5 | 1/4 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +1.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-17 | @ ORL | 6 | 17.77 | -66.2% | 2 | 1/3 | 1/2 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1.0 | 33% |
| 2026-03-15 | vs MIN | 6 | 21.83 | -72.5% | 0 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -11.0 | 0% |
| 2026-03-12 | vs BOS | 15 | 22.35 | -32.9% | 9 | 4/6 | 4/4 | 0/2 | 1/2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -8.0 | 65% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS6.6%4/61 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/61 games
5+ ASSISTS6.6%4/61 games
2+ THREES37.7%23/61 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | OKC | 73 | 32.5 | #356 / 409 | 7.1M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | OKC | 98 | 45.4 | #184 / 422 | 14.9M | Rotation |
| 2023–24 | OKC | 88 | 51.4 | #97 / 409 | 17.2M | Core |
| 2022–23 | OKC | 72 | 40.6 | #234 / 408 | 10.1M | Rotation |
| 2021–22 | OKC | 59 | 33.7 | #356 / 423 | 7M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER32.5descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#356of 409 ranked
PH$7.1MDepth
SAMPLE73observed games
Ball security63
Box defence42
Creation22
Efficiency29
Rebounding21
Scoring40
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role
AF MOVEMENT-43.5 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-19.1 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
OKC
Oklahoma City Thunder
EXPECTED MIN15.8
SCORING SHARE7.9%
CREATION SHARE6.0%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR72.8%
-1.77 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 15 normal-load / 4 nonparticipation games.