Final audited reference season.
Oklahoma City ThunderWEST · NORTHWEST
Oklahoma City Thunder
Canonical ProbHoops team profile. Forecast and movement data are published only when the current release passes the operational governance gates.
playoff direct
30 NBA Cup-dependent regular-season matchups remain unassigned.
2026–27 · ASSIGNED SCHEDULE INTELLIGENCE
Forecast path ahead
Sum of governed win probabilities over 80 assigned games only — not an 82-game projection.
49.0% opponent expected-win rate · #1 is toughest.
Starts only after verified final detailed boxscores.
NEXT 5
Upcoming assigned games
2025–26 PERFORMANCE REFERENCE
AF-Score 74.2
Oklahoma City Thunder finished the last completed season with an AF-Score of 74.2, ranked #2 of 30 in the full historical field. This describes observed team performance; it is not a 2026–27 forecast and not a win probability.
Scoring75.7
Defense94.0
Possession61.6
Creation46.2
Discipline67.7
SAME-GAMES-PLAYED EVOLUTION
How the 2025–26 profile developed
GAME 556.0
GAME 1071.8
GAME 2077.1
GAME 4175.4
GAME 6074.0
FINAL74.2
AF-SCORE HISTORY
Seven-season performance trail
2019–2053.8#13/30
2020–2122.2#30/30
2021–2227.7#26/30
2022–2348.9#18/30
2023–2469.0#2/30
2024–2574.5#3/30
2025–2674.2#2/30
All seven completed seasons now use complete 30-team, full-observed historical fields. Current 2026–27 AF-Score starts only after verified final team box scores arrive.
E67 · ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Depth, dependency and profile fit
Team Depth uses the current governed Expected Minutes allocation and the latest eligible AF-Player observations. Star Dependency combines AF-Player percentile with the player’s governed next-game What If impact percentile within this team. It is model dependency, not causal truth.
Expected-minute-weighted rated rotation.
Mechanical role split, not official bench.
Share of the governed 240-minute team accounting carrying eligible AF-Player.
Expected Minutes concentration only.
STAR DEPENDENCY
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander1 governed next-game sample100dependency-1.3 pp if OUTChet Holmgren1 governed next-game sample84dependency-0.6 pp if OUTKenrich Williams1 governed next-game sample68dependency-1.0 pp if OUTIsaiah Hartenstein1 governed next-game sample55dependency-0.1 pp if OUTJaylin Williams1 governed next-game sample48dependency+0.4 pp if OUTPROFILE FIT · rebounding
Statistical profile examples only. Not a trade recommendation.
Rudy GobertMIN · rebounding94Mitchell RobinsonBOS · rebounding93Donovan ClinganPOR · rebounding93Jalen DurenDET · rebounding93Kel'el WareMIL · rebounding93PLAYER ROLE & IMPACT · 2025–26
Who carried the largest pregame role?
These player rows summarize pregame-known role and workload from the last completed season. With/without values, when shown, are residualized historical diagnostics with sample-size gates — not causal injury estimates.
PLAYERShai Gilgeous-Alexander
EXPECTED MIN28.7
SCORING SHARE26.3%
CREATION SHARE26.5%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR77.4%
WITH/WITHOUT+3.45 residual pts
PLAYERChet Holmgren
EXPECTED MIN25.6
SCORING SHARE14.9%
CREATION SHARE6.7%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR78.8%
WITH/WITHOUT+3.60 residual pts
PLAYERCason Wallace
EXPECTED MIN24.6
SCORING SHARE7.0%
CREATION SHARE10.2%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR84.5%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERLuguentz Dort
EXPECTED MIN22.9
SCORING SHARE6.9%
CREATION SHARE5.5%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR77.3%
WITH/WITHOUT-0.98 residual pts
PLAYERAjay Mitchell
EXPECTED MIN21.5
SCORING SHARE11.8%
CREATION SHARE14.6%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR75.5%
WITH/WITHOUT+15.41 residual pts
PLAYERIsaiah Joe
EXPECTED MIN18.5
SCORING SHARE9.1%
CREATION SHARE4.8%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR82.5%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERIsaiah Hartenstein
EXPECTED MIN16.9
SCORING SHARE7.9%
CREATION SHARE12.8%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR64.5%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERJalen Williams
EXPECTED MIN16.2
SCORING SHARE14.2%
CREATION SHARE21.2%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR57.0%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
NBA OFFICIAL AVAILABILITY
Current player status
Checking the governed NBA Official availability state.
GAME DAY
Operational status
Checking today and upcoming NBA game state.
PLAYER MILESTONES
Conditional-on-active probabilities
Current rows stay withheld until deterministic NBA-official pre-tip availability is integrated.
MOVEMENT
Release-to-release change
Movement requires two eligible published probability releases from the same season.
Attribution rule
ProbHoops does not infer a cause from a probability delta. A movement driver can be canonical only when deterministic counterfactual provenance reproduces the observed change.