Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Alex Caruso
Oklahoma City Thunder current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER40.32025–26
NBA RANK#247of 409
PH$10.2MRotation · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN42.0governed role
NEXT GAME@ San Antonio Spurs2026-10-20WHAT IF IMPACT-0.2 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN18.6
PTS6.3
REB2.7
AST2.0
STL1.3
BLK0.3
3PM1.0
FG%42.4%
3P%29.8%
FT%81.3%
+/-+6.8
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Oklahoma City Thunder
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED13.68pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G2.6 PTS · 1.8 REB · 0.4 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G5.2 PTS · 3.2 REB · 1.2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G3.1 PTS · 1.6 REB · 1 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G5.5 PTS · 2.4 REB · 1.7 AST
creation↓
efficiency↓
minutes↓
rebounding↑
scoring↓
COLD historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS43.8%1003/2289
2-POINT52.4%562/1073
3-POINT36.3%441/1216
FREE THROW76.1%389/511
EFFECTIVE FG%53.4%
TRUE SHOOTING%56.4%
AST / TO2.53
PTS PER 3611.1rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 207 | 21.85 | 7.31 | 2.84 | 2.76 | 1.15 | 1.43 | 0.49 |
| Away | 201 | 23.24 | 6.58 | 3.13 | 2.8 | 1 | 1.42 | 0.55 |
| Home − Away | — | -1.4 | +0.7 | -0.3 | -0.0 | +0.1 | +0.0 | -0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2.78 | high |
| minutes | 17 | 22.5 | 28.9 | 22.53 | medium |
| points | 3 | 7 | 11 | 6.95 | high |
| rebounds | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2.98 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES30.7% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS20.5%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | @ LAC | 13 | 14.61 | -11% | 2 | 1/3 | 1/1 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +5.0 | 33% |
| 2026-04-07 | @ LAL | 10 | 16.42 | -39.1% | 6 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 100% |
| 2026-04-05 | vs UTA | 13 | 16.36 | -20.6% | 5 | 2/4 | 1/1 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +7.0 | 63% |
| 2026-03-30 | vs DET | 27 | 18.18 | +48.5% | 3 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +12.0 | 75% |
| 2026-03-29 | vs NYK | 18 | 18.68 | -3.6% | 6 | 2/5 | 0/1 | 2/4 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +7.0 | 60% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ BOS | 21 | 18.97 | +10.7% | 9 | 3/11 | 2/3 | 1/8 | 2/2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -12.0 | 38% |
| 2026-03-23 | @ PHI | 16 | 17.44 | -8.2% | 4 | 1/2 | 1/1 | 0/1 | 2/2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +12.0 | 69% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ WAS | 20 | 14.4 | +38.9% | 4 | 2/4 | 2/2 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +19.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-17 | @ ORL | 24 | 12.8 | +87.4% | 2 | 1/3 | 1/2 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +19.0 | 33% |
| 2026-03-15 | vs MIN | 22 | 11.73 | +87.5% | 17 | 6/10 | 5/7 | 1/3 | 4/4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.0 | 72% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS0.0%0/54 games
10+ REBOUNDS1.8%1/54 games
5+ ASSISTS5.6%3/54 games
2+ THREES31.5%17/54 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | OKC | 54 | 18.6 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 42.4% | 29.8% | 81.3% |
| 2024–25 | OKC | 53 | 19.6 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 44.6% | 35.3% | 82.3% |
| 2023–24 | CHI | 71 | 28.7 | 10.1 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 46.8% | 40.8% | 76.0% |
| 2022–23 | CHI | 67 | 23.5 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 45.5% | 36.4% | 80.8% |
| 2021–22 | CHI | 41 | 28.0 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 39.7% | 33.1% | 79.5% |
| 2020–21 | LAL | 58 | 21.0 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 43.6% | 40.2% | 64.5% |
| 2019–20 | LAL | 64 | 18.4 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 41.2% | 33.3% | 73.4% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | OKC | 68 | 40.3 | #247 / 409 | 10.2M | Rotation |
| 2024–25 | OKC | 78 | 46.7 | #170 / 422 | 14.3M | Rotation |
| 2023–24 | CHI | 73 | 47.2 | #147 / 409 | 16.5M | Core |
| 2022–23 | CHI | 69 | 39.0 | #266 / 408 | 9.6M | Depth |
| 2021–22 | CHI | 45 | 37.5 | #305 / 423 | 8.4M | Depth |
| 2020–21 | LAL | 68 | 35.3 | #325 / 410 | 7.7M | Depth |
| 2019–20 | LAL | 85 | 33.0 | #310 / 385 | 8.2M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER40.3descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#247of 409 ranked
PH$10.2MRotation
SAMPLE68observed games
Ball security63
Box defence58
Creation43
Efficiency42
Rebounding22
Scoring28
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-55.5 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-20.1 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+22.5 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY34-0.2 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
OKC
Oklahoma City Thunder
EXPECTED MIN13.8
SCORING SHARE5.6%
CREATION SHARE8.0%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR66.3%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.