Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Jaylin Williams
Oklahoma City Thunder current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER44.12025–26
NBA RANK#191of 409
PH$13.1MRotation · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN28.4governed role
NEXT GAME@ San Antonio Spurs2026-10-20WHAT IF IMPACT+0.4 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN19.8
PTS7.2
REB5.4
AST2.5
STL0.5
BLK0.6
3PM1.5
FG%41.6%
3P%37.6%
FT%78.9%
+/-+4.4
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Oklahoma City Thunder
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED16.38pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G2.2 PTS · 2.4 REB · 1.4 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G7.6 PTS · 5.8 REB · 2.4 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G2.8 PTS · 3.5 REB · 1.4 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G6.5 PTS · 5.4 REB · 2.1 AST
creation↑
efficiency↑
minutes↓
rebounding↑
scoring↑
HOT historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS42.3%430/1017
2-POINT49.5%179/362
3-POINT38.3%251/655
FREE THROW76.5%163/213
EFFECTIVE FG%54.6%
TRUE SHOOTING%57.4%
AST / TO2.65
PTS PER 3612.05rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 113 | 17 | 5.73 | 4.83 | 2.05 | 1.14 | 0.49 | 0.55 |
| Away | 114 | 16.54 | 5.5 | 4.54 | 1.92 | 1.07 | 0.44 | 0.4 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.5 | +0.2 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1.99 | high |
| minutes | 11 | 16 | 22 | 16.77 | medium |
| points | 2 | 5 | 9 | 5.61 | high |
| rebounds | 2 | 4 | 7 | 4.68 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES83.5% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES20.9% of games
10+ ASSISTS31.3%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | @ LAC | 14 | 16.31 | -14.1% | 5 | 2/4 | 1/1 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 2026-04-07 | @ LAL | 14 | 16.51 | -15.2% | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +14.0 | — |
| 2026-04-05 | vs UTA | 12 | 18.31 | -34.4% | 6 | 2/5 | 0/1 | 2/4 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +10.0 | 60% |
| 2026-04-02 | vs LAL | 14 | 18.38 | -23.8% | 7 | 1/3 | 0/2 | 1/1 | 4/5 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +15.0 | 67% |
| 2026-03-30 | vs DET | 32 | 16.81 | +90.4% | 3 | 1/6 | 0/1 | 1/5 | 0/0 | 0 | 13 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | +11.0 | 25% |
| 2026-03-29 | vs NYK | 12 | 18.41 | -34.8% | 3 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ BOS | 14 | 19.26 | -27.3% | 4 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 1/2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5.0 | 69% |
| 2026-03-23 | @ PHI | 19 | 22.12 | -14.1% | 18 | 6/8 | 1/1 | 5/7 | 1/1 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +15.0 | 107% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ WAS | 9 | 26.17 | -65.6% | 0 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +8.0 | 0% |
| 2026-03-17 | @ ORL | 21 | 25.48 | -17.6% | 8 | 2/7 | 0/1 | 2/6 | 2/2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +11.0 | 51% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS4.8%3/63 games
10+ REBOUNDS12.7%8/63 games
5+ ASSISTS11.1%7/63 games
2+ THREES38.1%24/63 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | OKC | 77 | 44.1 | #191 / 409 | 13.1M | Rotation |
| 2024–25 | OKC | 63 | 50.0 | #124 / 422 | 14.1M | Rotation |
| 2023–24 | OKC | 79 | 45.0 | #173 / 409 | 12.1M | Rotation |
| 2022–23 | OKC | 51 | 39.2 | #262 / 408 | 8.4M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER44.1descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#191of 409 ranked
PH$13.1MRotation
SAMPLE77observed games
Ball security41
Box defence41
Creation52
Efficiency51
Rebounding47
Scoring25
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-7.8 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-17.4 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+9.3 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY48+0.4 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
OKC
Oklahoma City Thunder
EXPECTED MIN15.9
SCORING SHARE5.5%
CREATION SHARE8.9%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR77.7%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.