Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Jared McCain
Oklahoma City Thunder current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER35.32025–26
NBA RANK#324of 409
PH$7.6MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN25.1governed role
NEXT GAME@ San Antonio Spurs2026-10-20WHAT IF IMPACT+0.0 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN17.0
PTS8.1
REB2.0
AST1.3
STL0.5
BLK0.1
3PM1.4
FG%42.4%
3P%38.9%
FT%88.7%
+/-+2.2
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Oklahoma City Thunder
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED12.92pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G4.4 PTS · 0.6 REB · 0.6 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G10.6 PTS · 1.2 REB · 0.8 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G4.3 PTS · 1 REB · 0.5 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G10 PTS · 1.4 REB · 1.1 AST
creation↓
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring↑
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS43.8%311/710
2-POINT49.3%169/343
3-POINT38.7%142/367
FREE THROW88.1%96/109
EFFECTIVE FG%53.8%
TRUE SHOOTING%56.7%
AST / TO1.59
PTS PER 3618.59rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 45 | 20.11 | 10.64 | 2.13 | 1.78 | 1.69 | 0.49 | 0 |
| Away | 41 | 18.54 | 9.29 | 2.15 | 1.54 | 1.61 | 0.66 | 0.07 |
| Home − Away | — | +1.6 | +1.4 | -0.0 | +0.2 | +0.1 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1.66 | high |
| minutes | 12 | 17.5 | 28 | 19.36 | medium |
| points | 3 | 8 | 17 | 10 | high |
| rebounds | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2.14 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES11.2% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS11.2%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | @ LAC | 4 | 14.23 | -71.9% | 4 | 2/3 | 2/2 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3.0 | 67% |
| 2026-04-07 | @ LAL | 16 | 13.71 | +16.7% | 15 | 5/8 | 2/4 | 3/4 | 2/2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +7.0 | 85% |
| 2026-04-05 | vs UTA | 15 | 15.13 | -0.9% | 3 | 1/4 | 0/0 | 1/4 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1.0 | 38% |
| 2026-04-02 | vs LAL | 12 | 17.11 | -29.9% | 8 | 4/6 | 4/4 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +6.0 | 67% |
| 2026-03-30 | vs DET | 14 | 17.19 | -18.6% | 7 | 3/5 | 3/3 | 0/2 | 1/1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1.0 | 64% |
| 2026-03-29 | vs NYK | 11 | 18.42 | -40.3% | 0 | 0/3 | 0/1 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +4.0 | 0% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ BOS | 13 | 18.62 | -30.2% | 6 | 3/6 | 3/4 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -17.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-23 | @ PHI | 25 | 18.03 | +38.7% | 13 | 5/11 | 2/4 | 3/7 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +19.0 | 59% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ WAS | 28 | 16.32 | +71.5% | 18 | 6/15 | 2/5 | 4/10 | 2/3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +15.0 | 55% |
| 2026-03-17 | @ ORL | 12 | 16.54 | -27.4% | 6 | 3/6 | 3/5 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +9.0 | 50% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS6.3%4/63 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/63 games
5+ ASSISTS4.8%3/63 games
2+ THREES41.3%26/63 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | OKC | 78 | 35.3 | #324 / 409 | 7.6M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | PHI | 23 | 46.4 | #173 / 422 | 10.9M | Rotation |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER35.3descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#324of 409 ranked
PH$7.6MDepth
SAMPLE78observed games
Ball security75
Box defence20
Creation26
Efficiency34
Rebounding15
Scoring52
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-30.8 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-38.3 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+8.5 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY10+0.0 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
PHI
Philadelphia 76ers
EXPECTED MIN12.2
SCORING SHARE5.1%
CREATION SHARE6.6%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR69.6%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.
OKC
Oklahoma City Thunder
EXPECTED MIN15.1
SCORING SHARE8.2%
CREATION SHARE2.9%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR82.1%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.