CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE

Jalen Duren

Detroit Pistons current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.

Detroit Pistons · current teamC

AF-PLAYER65.92025–26

NBA RANK#6of 409

PH$27.3MHigh Value · fictional game currency

STATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status

EXPECTED MIN26.3governed role

NEXT GAMEvs Boston Celtics2026-10-20 WHAT IF IMPACT+0.5 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual

REGULAR-SEASON GAMES266

Player-safe accepted corpus.

CAREER PPG · CORPUS13.3

2019–20 through 2025–26 window.

CAREER RPG · CORPUS10.4

Historical window, not full NBA career.

CAREER APG · CORPUS2.0

Historical window, not full NBA career.

LATEST COMPLETED SEASON

2025–26

61 games

MIN28.2

PTS19.1

REB10.6

AST1.9

STL0.8

BLK0.8

3PM0.0

FG%64.1%

3P%—

FT%75.1%

+/-+6.8

NEXT GAME

Current context

2026–27 · Detroit Pistons

Assigned schedule

NBA Official roster

2026-10-20 · HOMEvs Boston Celtics54.7% winProjected 111–113

2026-10-23 · AWAY@ Miami Heat49.1% winProjected 113–114

2026-10-25 · AWAY@ Philadelphia 76ers49.0% winProjected 112–112

2026-10-27 · AWAY@ New York Knicks34.2% winProjected 110–114

2026-10-28 · HOMEvs Charlotte Hornets59.7% winProjected 111–114

E66 · PLAYER PROJECTION

Loading next-game projection…

PTS / REB / AST / 3PM use a separately validated player-stat model. Game Win, projected team score, Form and milestones keep their own authorities.

Current team Open Player What If

MINUTES + FORM

Role-adjusted performance

CURRENT FORM · 2026–27

Waiting for completed player boxscores

PRESEASON / NO SAMPLE

ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.

LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26

Historical Minutes Intelligence

DESCRIPTIVE · NOT CURRENT

Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.

LATEST ACTUAL0minutes

EXPECTED29.3pregame reference

DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown

LAST 5

ALL OBSERVED5 G10.8 PTS · 5 REB · 2.2 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G17.4 PTS · 8.8 REB · 3.4 AST

LAST 10

ALL OBSERVED10 G11.7 PTS · 6.1 REB · 2.3 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G21.4 PTS · 9.9 REB · 2.4 AST

creation↑

efficiency→

minutes→

rebounding→

scoring→

MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.

SPLITS + EFFICIENCY

How the production is built

EFFICIENCY

Shooting, derived from the box score

CAREER · 266 GAMES

2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.

FIELD GOALS64.9%1432/2205

2-POINT65.1%1432/2199

3-POINT—0/6

FREE THROW71.4%670/938

EFFECTIVE FG%64.9%

TRUE SHOOTING%67.5%

AST / TO1.17

PTS PER 3617.67rate, not projection

HOME / AWAY

Where the games were played

130 HOME · 136 AWAY

Split	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	STL	BLK
Home	130	27.19	14.18	10.98	2.06	0	0.62	0.99
Away	136	26.95	12.43	9.78	2.03	0	0.71	0.86
Home − Away	—	+0.2	+1.8	+1.2	+0.0	0.0	-0.1	+0.1

Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.

CONSISTENCY

What the average hides

266 GAMES

Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.

Category	Floor	Median	Ceiling	Mean	Volatility
assists	0	2	3	2.05	high
minutes	22	28	32	27.07	low
points	8	13	18	13.29	high
rebounds	7	10	14	10.37	medium

Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.

DOUBLE-DOUBLES

Observed frequency across the corpus

266 GAMES

DOUBLE-DOUBLES14052.6% of games

TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games

10+ ASSISTS00.0%

10+ BLOCKS00.0%

Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.

GAME LOG · 2025–26

One log, the window you choose

10 games

Date	Opp	MIN	EXP MIN	MIN Δ	PTS	FG	2P	3P	FT	OR	DR	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	+/-	TS%
2026-04-10	@ CHA	22	26.61	-17.3%	20	8/11	8/11	0/0	4/4	3	6	9	4	0	0	2	5	+3.0	78%
2026-04-06	@ ORL	32	26.25	+21.9%	18	7/9	7/9	0/0	4/7	1	8	9	4	1	0	4	3	-18.0	75%
2026-04-04	@ PHI	30	27.61	+8.7%	16	5/8	5/8	0/0	6/7	2	5	7	3	0	0	1	1	+15.0	72%
2026-04-02	vs MIN	36	26.48	+35.9%	22	8/15	8/15	0/0	6/10	5	9	14	4	1	2	5	3	+6.0	57%
2026-03-31	vs TOR	35	24.39	+43.5%	31	12/13	12/13	0/0	7/7	2	7	9	3	0	1	3	5	+7.0	96%
2026-03-28	@ MIN	29	28.71	+1%	10	4/7	4/7	0/0	2/2	2	11	13	5	0	1	3	5	+8.0	64%
2026-03-25	vs ATL	42	27.84	+50.9%	26	9/15	9/15	0/0	8/9	7	7	14	3	0	2	4	1	+14.0	69%
2026-03-23	vs LAL	33	25.59	+29%	20	5/9	5/9	0/0	10/10	4	7	11	3	0	0	3	3	+6.0	75%
2026-03-20	vs GSW	21	26.46	-20.6%	23	8/12	8/12	0/0	7/9	2	4	6	1	1	0	2	5	+14.0	72%
2026-03-19	@ WAS	25	27.55	-9.3%	24	9/15	9/15	0/0	6/8	6	5	11	0	2	0	1	0	+15.0	65%

All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.

HISTORY

Season and milestone evidence

DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26

How often did the threshold occur?

historical frequency

These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.

20+ POINTS45.9%28/61 games

10+ REBOUNDS59.0%36/61 games

5+ ASSISTS3.3%2/61 games

2+ THREES0.0%0/61 games

SEASON HISTORY

Regular-season production

accepted player-safe games

Season	Team(s)	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%
2025–26	DET	61	28.2	19.1	10.6	1.9	64.1%	—	75.1%
2024–25	DET	77	26.4	11.9	10.5	2.7	69.2%	—	66.9%
2023–24	DET	61	29.1	13.8	11.6	2.4	61.9%	0.0%	79.0%
2022–23	DET	67	25.0	9.1	8.9	1.1	64.8%	0.0%	61.2%

AF-PLAYER HISTORY

Season by season

Season	Team	G	AF-Player	Rank	PH$	Band
2025–26	DET	75	65.9	#6 / 409	27.3M	High Value
2024–25	DET	83	63.2	#15 / 422	26.6M	High Value
2023–24	DET	61	57.4	#41 / 409	22M	Core
2022–23	DET	67	54.5	#55 / 408	20.4M	Core

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.

CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY

Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.

governed identity

Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.

Open team profile

IMPACT

Rating and role context

AF-PLAYER

Measured production, 2025–26

#6 OF 409

AF-PLAYER65.9descriptive index, not a win probability

NBA RANK#6of 409 ranked

PH$27.3MHigh Value

SAMPLE75observed games

Ball security

Box defence

Creation

Efficiency

Rebounding

Scoring

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.

E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE

Distinct signals, side by side

descriptive · current role + historical rating

Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.

VALUE OVER ROLE+43.5 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct

AF MOVEMENT+2.1 pp2024–25 → 2025–26

ROLE CHANGESTABLE-2.2 min vs latest observed MPG

STAR DEPENDENCY74+0.5 pp next-game What If impact

UNDERUSED

Player movement Opportunities Compare players

Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.

PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26

Pregame role and with/without context

descriptive · not causal

Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.

DET

Detroit Pistons

EXPECTED MIN24.8

SCORING SHARE15.4%

CREATION SHARE7.0%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR79.0%

-7.09 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 49 normal-load / 5 nonparticipation games.