Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Chet Holmgren
Oklahoma City Thunder current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER61.12025–26
NBA RANK#16of 409
PH$27.4MHigh Value · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN36.0governed role
NEXT GAME@ San Antonio Spurs2026-10-20WHAT IF IMPACT-0.6 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN29.1
PTS17.2
REB9.0
AST1.7
STL0.6
BLK1.9
3PM1.3
FG%55.9%
3P%36.5%
FT%79.0%
+/-+9.7
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Oklahoma City Thunder
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED24.94pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G13.2 PTS · 6.2 REB · 1.2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G19 PTS · 9.8 REB · 1.8 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G11.2 PTS · 5.8 REB · 0.9 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G16 PTS · 9.2 REB · 2 AST
creation→
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring↑
HOT historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS53.4%1098/2056
2-POINT62.0%839/1354
3-POINT36.9%259/702
FREE THROW78.3%532/679
EFFECTIVE FG%59.7%
TRUE SHOOTING%63.4%
AST / TO1.29
PTS PER 3620.51rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 91 | 28.53 | 16.21 | 8.21 | 1.99 | 1.38 | 0.64 | 2.21 |
| Away | 90 | 29.42 | 16.8 | 8.49 | 2.17 | 1.48 | 0.67 | 2.11 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.9 | -0.6 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.0 | +0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2.08 | high |
| minutes | 25 | 30 | 33 | 28.97 | low |
| points | 11 | 16 | 22 | 16.5 | medium |
| rebounds | 5 | 8 | 11 | 8.35 | medium |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES5932.6% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | @ LAC | 31 | 25.2 | +23% | 30 | 10/13 | 7/9 | 3/4 | 7/10 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +19.0 | 86% |
| 2026-04-07 | @ LAL | 22 | 25.89 | -15% | 15 | 6/10 | 5/7 | 1/3 | 2/3 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +30.0 | 66% |
| 2026-04-05 | vs UTA | 22 | 26.11 | -15.7% | 21 | 8/11 | 4/6 | 4/5 | 1/2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +30.0 | 88% |
| 2026-04-02 | vs LAL | 18 | 26.7 | -32.6% | 7 | 3/7 | 2/3 | 1/4 | 0/0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +13.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-30 | vs DET | 30 | 27.59 | +8.7% | 13 | 6/11 | 5/8 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | +1.0 | 59% |
| 2026-03-29 | vs NYK | 33 | 27.16 | +21.5% | 16 | 5/10 | 5/7 | 0/3 | 6/7 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +16.0 | 61% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ BOS | 26 | 27.48 | -5.4% | 10 | 3/7 | 2/5 | 1/2 | 3/4 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5.0 | 57% |
| 2026-03-23 | @ PHI | 30 | 24.07 | +24.6% | 17 | 6/11 | 3/7 | 3/4 | 2/2 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +10.0 | 72% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ WAS | 27 | 19.99 | +35.1% | 18 | 6/9 | 6/8 | 0/1 | 6/6 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +24.0 | 77% |
| 2026-03-17 | @ ORL | 33 | 19.64 | +68% | 20 | 8/14 | 8/12 | 0/2 | 4/5 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +10.0 | 62% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS33.8%23/68 games
10+ REBOUNDS38.2%26/68 games
5+ ASSISTS1.5%1/68 games
2+ THREES32.4%22/68 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | OKC | 82 | 61.1 | #16 / 409 | 27.4M | High Value |
| 2024–25 | OKC | 54 | 50.6 | #117 / 422 | 16.8M | Core |
| 2023–24 | OKC | 92 | 57.5 | #40 / 409 | 25.8M | High Value |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER61.1descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#16of 409 ranked
PH$27.4MHigh Value
SAMPLE82observed games
Ball security70
Box defence61
Creation13
Efficiency84
Rebounding65
Scoring62
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+15.2 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+23.9 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+6.7 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY84-0.6 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
OKC
Oklahoma City Thunder
EXPECTED MIN25.6
SCORING SHARE14.9%
CREATION SHARE6.7%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR78.8%
+3.60 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 59 normal-load / 6 nonparticipation games.