CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Oklahoma City Thunder current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.

Oklahoma City Thunder · current teamGCanadaKentucky

AF-PLAYER71.32025–26

NBA RANK#3of 409

PH$29MHigh Value · fictional game currency

STATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status

EXPECTED MIN42.0governed role

NEXT GAME@ San Antonio Spurs2026-10-20 WHAT IF IMPACT-1.3 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual

REGULAR-SEASON GAMES445

Player-safe accepted corpus.

CAREER PPG · CORPUS28.0

2019–20 through 2025–26 window.

CAREER RPG · CORPUS5.1

Historical window, not full NBA career.

CAREER APG · CORPUS5.7

Historical window, not full NBA career.

LATEST COMPLETED SEASON

2025–26

66 games

MIN33.4

PTS31.4

REB4.3

AST6.6

STL1.4

BLK0.7

3PM1.7

FG%55.5%

3P%39.9%

FT%88.3%

+/-+11.4

NEXT GAME

Current context

2026–27 · Oklahoma City Thunder

Assigned schedule

NBA Official roster

2026-10-20 · AWAY@ San Antonio Spurs45.5% winProjected 112–114

2026-10-22 · HOMEvs Denver Nuggets67.0% winProjected 112–117

2026-10-25 · HOMEvs LA Clippers68.6% winProjected 110–116

2026-10-26 · HOMEvs Phoenix Suns68.3% winProjected 110–116

2026-10-28 · AWAY@ Dallas Mavericks66.2% winProjected 115–112

E66 · PLAYER PROJECTION

Loading next-game projection…

PTS / REB / AST / 3PM use a separately validated player-stat model. Game Win, projected team score, Form and milestones keep their own authorities.

Current team Open Player What If

MINUTES + FORM

Role-adjusted performance

CURRENT FORM · 2026–27

Waiting for completed player boxscores

PRESEASON / NO SAMPLE

ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.

LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26

Historical Minutes Intelligence

DESCRIPTIVE · NOT CURRENT

Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.

LATEST ACTUAL0minutes

EXPECTED30.51pregame reference

DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown

LAST 5

ALL OBSERVED5 G13 PTS · 1.2 REB · 5.2 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G30 PTS · 3.4 REB · 6.6 AST

LAST 10

ALL OBSERVED10 G20.3 PTS · 2.3 REB · 4.8 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G30.5 PTS · 3.5 REB · 6.5 AST

creation→

efficiency→

minutes→

rebounding↓

scoring→

MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.

SPLITS + EFFICIENCY

How the production is built

EFFICIENCY

Shooting, derived from the box score

CAREER · 445 GAMES

2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.

FIELD GOALS51.2%4314/8432

2-POINT55.5%3637/6557

3-POINT36.1%677/1875

FREE THROW86.8%3161/3641

EFFECTIVE FG%55.2%

TRUE SHOOTING%62.1%

AST / TO2.35

PTS PER 3629.34rate, not projection

HOME / AWAY

Where the games were played

226 HOME · 219 AWAY

Split	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	STL	BLK
Home	226	34.27	28.5	5.28	5.83	1.55	1.5	0.89
Away	219	34.49	27.52	4.87	5.53	1.49	1.48	0.79
Home − Away	—	-0.2	+1.0	+0.4	+0.3	+0.1	+0.0	+0.1

Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.

CONSISTENCY

What the average hides

445 GAMES

Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.

Category	Floor	Median	Ceiling	Mean	Volatility
assists	4	6	8	5.68	medium
minutes	30.7	35	37.2	34.37	low
points	20.8	29	35	28.01	medium
rebounds	3	5	7	5.08	high

Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.

DOUBLE-DOUBLES

Observed frequency across the corpus

445 GAMES

DOUBLE-DOUBLES439.7% of games

TRIPLE-DOUBLES20.4% of games

10+ ASSISTS245.4%

10+ BLOCKS00.0%

Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.

GAME LOG · 2025–26

One log, the window you choose

10 games

Date	Opp	MIN	EXP MIN	MIN Δ	PTS	FG	2P	3P	FT	OR	DR	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	+/-	TS%
2026-04-08	@ LAC	30	31.45	-4.6%	20	9/17	7/11	2/6	0/1	0	1	1	11	1	1	3	1	+10.0	57%
2026-04-07	@ LAL	28	32.92	-14.9%	25	10/15	8/13	2/2	3/3	1	0	1	8	2	0	3	2	+32.0	77%
2026-04-05	vs UTA	24	33.94	-29.3%	20	7/10	5/7	2/3	4/5	0	4	4	7	1	0	3	0	+26.0	82%
2026-04-02	vs LAL	30	34.36	-12.7%	28	12/25	11/21	1/4	3/3	2	5	7	7	0	0	1	2	+35.0	53%
2026-03-30	vs DET	41	34.1	+20.2%	47	12/19	10/16	2/3	21/25	2	3	5	3	2	0	4	4	+8.0	78%
2026-03-29	vs NYK	37	32.36	+14.3%	30	8/18	7/15	1/3	13/16	1	2	3	4	1	0	4	2	+13.0	60%
2026-03-25	@ BOS	37	32.46	+14%	33	10/12	7/8	3/4	10/12	0	2	2	8	2	0	2	3	+1.0	96%
2026-03-23	@ PHI	29	33.88	-14.4%	22	9/13	8/9	1/4	3/3	0	5	5	5	1	2	5	2	+13.0	77%
2026-03-21	@ WAS	32	33.42	-4.2%	40	17/27	16/25	1/2	5/8	1	2	3	7	1	0	3	3	+11.0	66%
2026-03-17	@ ORL	36	31.98	+12.6%	40	14/27	11/22	3/5	9/11	0	5	5	2	4	0	3	2	-4.0	63%

All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.

HISTORY

Season and milestone evidence

DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26

How often did the threshold occur?

historical frequency

These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.

20+ POINTS100.0%66/66 games

10+ REBOUNDS1.5%1/66 games

5+ ASSISTS78.8%52/66 games

2+ THREES51.5%34/66 games

SEASON HISTORY

Regular-season production

accepted player-safe games

Season	Team(s)	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%
2025–26	OKC	66	33.4	31.4	4.3	6.6	55.5%	39.9%	88.3%
2024–25	OKC	76	34.2	32.7	5.0	6.4	51.9%	37.5%	89.8%
2023–24	OKC	75	34.0	30.1	5.5	6.2	53.5%	35.3%	87.4%
2022–23	OKC	68	35.5	31.4	4.8	5.5	51.0%	34.5%	90.5%
2021–22	OKC	56	34.7	24.5	5.0	5.9	45.3%	30.0%	81.0%
2020–21	OKC	35	33.7	23.7	4.8	5.9	50.8%	41.8%	80.8%
2019–20	OKC	69	34.8	19.1	5.9	3.4	47.4%	34.7%	80.5%

AF-PLAYER HISTORY

Season by season

Season	Team	G	AF-Player	Rank	PH$	Band
2025–26	OKC	80	71.3	#3 / 409	29M	High Value
2024–25	OKC	100	69.2	#3 / 422	29.8M	High Value
2023–24	OKC	85	71.1	#3 / 409	29.2M	High Value
2022–23	OKC	70	62.3	#14 / 408	27.1M	High Value
2021–22	OKC	56	56.1	#46 / 423	23M	Core
2020–21	OKC	36	60.8	#23 / 410	21.2M	Core
2019–20	OKC	76	47.6	#117 / 385	20.2M	Core

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.

CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY

Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.

governed identity

Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.

Open team profile

IMPACT

Rating and role context

AF-PLAYER

Measured production, 2025–26

#3 OF 409

AF-PLAYER71.3descriptive index, not a win probability

NBA RANK#3of 409 ranked

PH$29MHigh Value

SAMPLE80observed games

Ball security

Box defence

Creation

Efficiency

Rebounding

Scoring

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.

E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE

Distinct signals, side by side

descriptive · current role + historical rating

Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.

VALUE OVER ROLE+4.3 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct

AF MOVEMENT-0.0 pp2024–25 → 2025–26

ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+8.1 min vs latest observed MPG

STAR DEPENDENCY100-1.3 pp next-game What If impact

Player movement Opportunities Compare players

Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.

PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26

Pregame role and with/without context

descriptive · not causal

Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.

OKC

Oklahoma City Thunder

EXPECTED MIN28.7

SCORING SHARE26.3%

CREATION SHARE26.5%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR77.4%

+3.45 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 67 normal-load / 4 nonparticipation games.