Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Cason Wallace
Oklahoma City Thunder current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER36.22025–26
NBA RANK#313of 409
PH$9.8MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN39.3governed role
NEXT GAME@ San Antonio Spurs2026-10-20WHAT IF IMPACT-0.5 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN26.5
PTS8.4
REB3.1
AST2.6
STL1.9
BLK0.3
3PM1.3
FG%42.5%
3P%34.3%
FT%80.9%
+/-+6.4
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Oklahoma City Thunder
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED21.7pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G4.8 PTS · 1.8 REB · 1 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G7.8 PTS · 3.6 REB · 1.4 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G5.3 PTS · 1.9 REB · 0.9 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G7 PTS · 3 REB · 2.3 AST
creation↓
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring↑
HOT historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS46.1%690/1498
2-POINT54.4%422/776
3-POINT37.1%268/722
FREE THROW80.3%114/142
EFFECTIVE FG%55.0%
TRUE SHOOTING%56.5%
AST / TO2.77
PTS PER 3611.41rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 115 | 24.89 | 7.7 | 2.91 | 2.22 | 1.15 | 1.55 | 0.44 |
| Away | 110 | 24.54 | 7.96 | 2.83 | 2.12 | 1.24 | 1.47 | 0.42 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.3 | -0.3 | +0.1 | +0.1 | -0.1 | +0.1 | +0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2.17 | high |
| minutes | 19 | 25 | 30 | 24.72 | low |
| points | 4 | 7 | 12 | 7.83 | high |
| rebounds | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2.87 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES10.4% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS10.4%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | @ LAC | 21 | 21.09 | -0.4% | 3 | 1/6 | 0/1 | 1/5 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2.0 | 25% |
| 2026-04-07 | @ LAL | 23 | 21.48 | +7.1% | 5 | 1/4 | 0/2 | 1/2 | 2/2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +27.0 | 51% |
| 2026-04-05 | vs UTA | 22 | 21.22 | +3.7% | 16 | 6/10 | 2/5 | 4/5 | 0/0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +20.0 | 80% |
| 2026-04-02 | vs LAL | 21 | 20.85 | +0.7% | 8 | 3/7 | 1/2 | 2/5 | 0/0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +28.0 | 57% |
| 2026-03-30 | vs DET | 27 | 20.77 | +30% | 9 | 4/9 | 3/4 | 1/5 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-29 | vs NYK | 15 | 22.49 | -33.3% | 5 | 2/4 | 2/3 | 0/1 | 1/2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +4.0 | 51% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ BOS | 24 | 23.57 | +1.8% | 7 | 2/5 | 1/1 | 1/4 | 2/2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1.0 | 60% |
| 2026-03-23 | @ PHI | 22 | 23.47 | -6.2% | 5 | 2/5 | 1/3 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +4.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ WAS | 15 | 26.12 | -42.6% | 4 | 1/2 | 1/1 | 0/1 | 2/2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1.0 | 69% |
| 2026-03-17 | @ ORL | 23 | 27.17 | -15.3% | 9 | 3/6 | 2/4 | 1/2 | 2/2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +8.0 | 65% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS6.7%5/75 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/75 games
5+ ASSISTS17.3%13/75 games
2+ THREES32.0%24/75 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | OKC | 89 | 36.2 | #313 / 409 | 9.8M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | OKC | 92 | 37.4 | #306 / 422 | 10.3M | Rotation |
| 2023–24 | OKC | 92 | 41.1 | #235 / 409 | 11.4M | Rotation |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER36.2descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#313of 409 ranked
PH$9.8MDepth
SAMPLE89observed games
Ball security68
Box defence53
Creation48
Efficiency34
Rebounding19
Scoring19
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-62.6 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-4.0 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+13.1 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY40-0.5 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
OKC
Oklahoma City Thunder
EXPECTED MIN24.7
SCORING SHARE7.0%
CREATION SHARE10.2%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR84.5%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.