Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Kel'el Ware
Milwaukee Bucks current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER56.02025–26
NBA RANK#46of 409
PH$22.2MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN42.0governed role
NEXT GAME@ Washington Wizards2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-2.3 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN22.0
PTS11.1
REB9.1
AST0.7
STL0.7
BLK1.1
3PM1.2
FG%52.3%
3P%40.0%
FT%74.0%
+/--1.2
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Milwaukee Bucks
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL29minutes
EXPECTED14.48pregame reference
DEVIATION+100.3%expanded minutes
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G10.4 PTS · 7.6 REB · 1.2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G8.4 PTS · 7.2 REB · 2.2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G9.7 PTS · 6.8 REB · 1.5 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G9.7 PTS · 7.8 REB · 1.5 AST
creation↑
efficiency→
minutes↓
rebounding→
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS53.4%560/1048
2-POINT60.8%438/720
3-POINT37.2%122/328
FREE THROW71.7%114/159
EFFECTIVE FG%59.3%
TRUE SHOOTING%60.7%
AST / TO0.98
PTS PER 3616.73rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 65 | 23.06 | 10.42 | 8.66 | 0.74 | 0.95 | 0.68 | 1.2 |
| Away | 68 | 20.87 | 9.99 | 7.72 | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.63 | 1.04 |
| Home − Away | — | +2.2 | +0.4 | +0.9 | -0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.2 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.81 | high |
| minutes | 14 | 22 | 29.6 | 21.94 | medium |
| points | 5 | 9 | 16 | 10.2 | high |
| rebounds | 4 | 8 | 12 | 8.18 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES3627.1% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | vs ATL | 29 | 14.48 | +100.3% | 16 | 6/9 | 2/4 | 4/5 | 0/2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +6.0 | 81% |
| 2026-04-09 | @ TOR | 11 | 16.3 | -32.5% | 7 | 3/7 | 2/4 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -19.0 | 50% |
| 2026-04-07 | @ TOR | 17 | 17.24 | -1.4% | 5 | 2/6 | 1/4 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -9.0 | 42% |
| 2026-04-04 | vs WAS | 36 | 17.07 | +110.9% | 24 | 10/15 | 7/9 | 3/6 | 1/2 | 5 | 14 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 4 | +7.0 | 76% |
| 2026-04-01 | vs BOS | 13 | 18.66 | -30.4% | 8 | 2/3 | 0/1 | 2/2 | 2/2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5.0 | 103% |
| 2026-03-30 | vs PHI | 13 | 17.26 | -24.7% | 5 | 2/7 | 1/4 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -14.0 | 36% |
| 2026-03-29 | @ IND | 15 | 18.57 | -19.2% | 5 | 2/5 | 1/2 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-27 | @ CLE | 21 | 19.77 | +6.2% | 14 | 5/10 | 3/6 | 2/4 | 2/2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6.0 | 64% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ CLE | 20 | 20.97 | -4.6% | 13 | 5/5 | 2/2 | 3/3 | 0/1 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +32.0 | 120% |
| 2026-03-23 | vs SAS | 22 | 21.42 | +2.7% | 7 | 3/10 | 2/4 | 1/6 | 0/0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -3.0 | 35% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS11.1%8/72 games
10+ REBOUNDS40.3%29/72 games
5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/72 games
2+ THREES26.4%19/72 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | MIA | 73 | 56.0 | #46 / 409 | 22.2M | Core |
| 2024–25 | MIA | 67 | 49.2 | #136 / 422 | 15.3M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER56.0descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#46of 409 ranked
PH$22.2MCore
SAMPLE73observed games
Ball security86
Box defence63
Creation8
Efficiency61
Rebounding93
Scoring50
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-6.2 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+21.0 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+19.7 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY94-2.3 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
MIA
Miami Heat
EXPECTED MIN20.1
SCORING SHARE9.0%
CREATION SHARE2.3%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR82.2%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.