Final audited reference season.
Miami HeatEAST · SOUTHEAST
Miami Heat
Canonical ProbHoops team profile. Forecast and movement data are published only when the current release passes the operational governance gates.
play in
30 NBA Cup-dependent regular-season matchups remain unassigned.
2026–27 · ASSIGNED SCHEDULE INTELLIGENCE
Forecast path ahead
Sum of governed win probabilities over 80 assigned games only — not an 82-game projection.
49.6% opponent expected-win rate · #1 is toughest.
Starts only after verified final detailed boxscores.
NEXT 5
Upcoming assigned games
2025–26 PERFORMANCE REFERENCE
AF-Score 63.0
Miami Heat finished the last completed season with an AF-Score of 63.0, ranked #9 of 30 in the full historical field. This describes observed team performance; it is not a 2026–27 forecast and not a win probability.
Scoring55.0
Defense60.9
Possession62.4
Creation76.3
Discipline82.7
SAME-GAMES-PLAYED EVOLUTION
How the 2025–26 profile developed
GAME 563.2
GAME 1062.9
GAME 2064.2
GAME 4157.4
GAME 6062.5
FINAL63.0
AF-SCORE HISTORY
Seven-season performance trail
2019–2063.7#5/30
2020–2155.2#12/30
2021–2262.5#6/30
2022–2351.5#16/30
2023–2459.3#8/30
2024–2554.9#14/30
2025–2663.0#9/30
All seven completed seasons now use complete 30-team, full-observed historical fields. Current 2026–27 AF-Score starts only after verified final team box scores arrive.
E67 · ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Depth, dependency and profile fit
Team Depth uses the current governed Expected Minutes allocation and the latest eligible AF-Player observations. Star Dependency combines AF-Player percentile with the player’s governed next-game What If impact percentile within this team. It is model dependency, not causal truth.
Expected-minute-weighted rated rotation.
Mechanical role split, not official bench.
Share of the governed 240-minute team accounting carrying eligible AF-Player.
Expected Minutes concentration only.
STAR DEPENDENCY
Giannis Antetokounmpo1 governed next-game sample100dependency-2.9 pp if OUTBam Adebayo1 governed next-game sample63dependency-0.5 pp if OUTSimone Fontecchio1 governed next-game sample60dependency-0.7 pp if OUTPelle Larsson1 governed next-game sample58dependency+0.5 pp if OUTNikola Jović1 governed next-game sample50dependency+1.8 pp if OUTPROFILE FIT · box defense
Statistical profile examples only. Not a trade recommendation.
Paul ReedDET · box defense80Mitchell RobinsonBOS · box defense79Ausar ThompsonDET · box defense75Robert Williams IIIPOR · box defense71Goga BitadzeORL · box defense70PLAYER ROLE & IMPACT · 2025–26
Who carried the largest pregame role?
These player rows summarize pregame-known role and workload from the last completed season. With/without values, when shown, are residualized historical diagnostics with sample-size gates — not causal injury estimates.
PLAYERBam Adebayo
EXPECTED MIN28.7
SCORING SHARE16.8%
CREATION SHARE10.1%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR79.1%
WITH/WITHOUT-0.53 residual pts
PLAYERJamie Jr. Jaquez
EXPECTED MIN25.5
SCORING SHARE12.3%
CREATION SHARE16.6%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR80.1%
WITH/WITHOUT+3.37 residual pts
PLAYERAndrew Wiggins
EXPECTED MIN25.3
SCORING SHARE13.1%
CREATION SHARE9.2%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR74.0%
WITH/WITHOUT-2.46 residual pts
PLAYERDavion Mitchell
EXPECTED MIN24.9
SCORING SHARE7.9%
CREATION SHARE24.3%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR77.0%
WITH/WITHOUT+2.82 residual pts
PLAYERNorman Powell
EXPECTED MIN22.3
SCORING SHARE18.4%
CREATION SHARE9.0%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR67.8%
WITH/WITHOUT-0.63 residual pts
PLAYERPelle Larsson
EXPECTED MIN21.5
SCORING SHARE8.6%
CREATION SHARE11.0%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR75.9%
WITH/WITHOUT-1.34 residual pts
PLAYERKel'el Ware
EXPECTED MIN20.1
SCORING SHARE9.0%
CREATION SHARE2.3%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR82.2%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERTyler Herro
EXPECTED MIN17.7
SCORING SHARE19.1%
CREATION SHARE11.2%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR53.3%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
NBA OFFICIAL AVAILABILITY
Current player status
Checking the governed NBA Official availability state.
GAME DAY
Operational status
Checking today and upcoming NBA game state.
PLAYER MILESTONES
Conditional-on-active probabilities
Current rows stay withheld until deterministic NBA-official pre-tip availability is integrated.
MOVEMENT
Release-to-release change
Movement requires two eligible published probability releases from the same season.
Attribution rule
ProbHoops does not infer a cause from a probability delta. A movement driver can be canonical only when deterministic counterfactual provenance reproduces the observed change.