Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Pelle Larsson
Miami Heat current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER45.62025–26
NBA RANK#167of 409
PH$15.1MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN28.2governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Minnesota Timberwolves2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT+0.5 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN26.6
PTS11.4
REB3.5
AST3.3
STL0.7
BLK0.2
3PM0.9
FG%49.8%
3P%32.4%
FT%80.0%
+/-+0.7
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Miami Heat
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED32.68pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G6.6 PTS · 2.8 REB · 1.4 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G14 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G11 PTS · 4 REB · 2.6 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G13.8 PTS · 4.2 REB · 3 AST
creation↓
efficiency↓
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS47.9%333/695
2-POINT57.6%246/427
3-POINT32.5%87/268
FREE THROW77.8%200/257
EFFECTIVE FG%54.2%
TRUE SHOOTING%59.0%
AST / TO2.29
PTS PER 3614.13rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 59 | 21.73 | 8.97 | 2.47 | 2.41 | 0.81 | 0.78 | 0.17 |
| Away | 57 | 20.11 | 7.44 | 2.81 | 2.21 | 0.68 | 0.46 | 0.14 |
| Home − Away | — | +1.6 | +1.5 | -0.3 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2.31 | high |
| minutes | 10 | 24 | 30 | 20.93 | high |
| points | 2 | 7 | 15 | 8.22 | high |
| rebounds | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2.64 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES10.9% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | @ TOR | 32 | 31.66 | +1.1% | 10 | 4/10 | 2/5 | 2/5 | 0/0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -21.0 | 50% |
| 2026-04-07 | @ TOR | 26 | 33.38 | -22.1% | 7 | 2/9 | 1/5 | 1/4 | 2/2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -13.0 | 35% |
| 2026-04-04 | vs WAS | 24 | 33.05 | -27.4% | 16 | 6/10 | 6/8 | 0/2 | 4/6 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +27.0 | 63% |
| 2026-04-01 | vs BOS | 38 | 31.03 | +22.4% | 18 | 7/13 | 5/9 | 2/4 | 2/4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +7.0 | 61% |
| 2026-03-30 | vs PHI | 36 | 29.92 | +20.3% | 20 | 8/13 | 8/9 | 0/4 | 4/6 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +18.0 | 64% |
| 2026-03-29 | @ IND | 36 | 29.24 | +23.1% | 15 | 7/11 | 7/10 | 0/1 | 1/3 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6.0 | 61% |
| 2026-03-27 | @ CLE | 26 | 29.52 | -11.9% | 10 | 2/4 | 2/2 | 0/2 | 6/6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -10.0 | 75% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ CLE | 34 | 29.68 | +14.6% | 14 | 3/5 | 2/3 | 1/2 | 7/7 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | +14.0 | 87% |
| 2026-03-23 | vs SAS | 23 | 32.02 | -28.2% | 7 | 2/6 | 2/5 | 0/1 | 3/3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -23.0 | 48% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ HOU | 31 | 31.46 | -1.5% | 19 | 7/12 | 5/9 | 2/3 | 3/5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | +2.0 | 67% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS10.8%7/65 games
10+ REBOUNDS1.5%1/65 games
5+ ASSISTS26.2%17/65 games
2+ THREES27.7%18/65 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | MIA | 66 | 45.6 | #167 / 409 | 15.1M | Core |
| 2024–25 | MIA | 56 | 32.7 | #370 / 422 | 6M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER45.6descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#167of 409 ranked
PH$15.1MCore
SAMPLE66observed games
Ball security52
Box defence22
Creation51
Efficiency63
Rebounding23
Scoring38
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-1.3 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+47.0 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGESTABLE+1.6 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY58+0.5 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
MIA
Miami Heat
EXPECTED MIN21.5
SCORING SHARE8.6%
CREATION SHARE11.0%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR75.9%
-1.34 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 32 normal-load / 4 nonparticipation games.