CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE

Bam Adebayo

Miami Heat current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.

Miami Heat · current teamC-FUSAKentucky

AF-PLAYER53.92025–26

NBA RANK#66of 409

PH$23MCore · fictional game currency

STATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status

EXPECTED MIN14.1governed role

NEXT GAMEvs Minnesota Timberwolves2026-10-21 WHAT IF IMPACT-0.5 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual

REGULAR-SEASON GAMES483

Player-safe accepted corpus.

CAREER PPG · CORPUS18.8

2019–20 through 2025–26 window.

CAREER RPG · CORPUS9.8

Historical window, not full NBA career.

CAREER APG · CORPUS4.1

Historical window, not full NBA career.

LATEST COMPLETED SEASON

2025–26

69 games

MIN32.3

PTS20.1

REB10.1

AST3.1

STL1.1

BLK0.7

3PM1.7

FG%44.2%

3P%31.7%

FT%77.1%

+/-+4.3

NEXT GAME

Current context

2026–27 · Miami Heat

Assigned schedule

NBA Official roster

2026-10-21 · HOMEvs Minnesota Timberwolves56.4% winProjected 113–116

2026-10-23 · HOMEvs Detroit Pistons50.9% winProjected 113–114

2026-10-24 · AWAY@ Charlotte Hornets38.9% winProjected 113–117

2026-10-26 · HOMEvs Dallas Mavericks66.8% winProjected 113–117

2026-10-28 · AWAY@ Atlanta Hawks38.8% winProjected 114–116

E66 · PLAYER PROJECTION

Loading next-game projection…

PTS / REB / AST / 3PM use a separately validated player-stat model. Game Win, projected team score, Form and milestones keep their own authorities.

Current team Open Player What If

MINUTES + FORM

Role-adjusted performance

CURRENT FORM · 2026–27

Waiting for completed player boxscores

PRESEASON / NO SAMPLE

ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.

LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26

Historical Minutes Intelligence

DESCRIPTIVE · NOT CURRENT

Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.

LATEST ACTUAL29minutes

EXPECTED36.83pregame reference

DEVIATION-21.3%role consistent

LAST 5

ALL OBSERVED5 G14 PTS · 7.8 REB · 4.2 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G20 PTS · 10.4 REB · 3.8 AST

LAST 10

ALL OBSERVED10 G16.8 PTS · 10.3 REB · 4.2 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G19.7 PTS · 9.8 REB · 3.6 AST

creation↑

efficiency→

minutes→

rebounding→

scoring→

MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.

SPLITS + EFFICIENCY

How the production is built

EFFICIENCY

Shooting, derived from the box score

CAREER · 483 GAMES

2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.

FIELD GOALS52.0%3434/6608

2-POINT54.2%3220/5937

3-POINT31.9%214/671

FREE THROW76.3%1978/2591

EFFECTIVE FG%53.6%

TRUE SHOOTING%58.5%

AST / TO1.71

PTS PER 3620.07rate, not projection

HOME / AWAY

Where the games were played

246 HOME · 237 AWAY

Split	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	STL	BLK
Home	246	33	18.81	9.5	4.11	0.44	1.1	0.91
Away	237	34.31	18.7	10.07	4	0.45	1.31	0.86
Home − Away	—	-1.3	+0.1	-0.6	+0.1	-0.0	-0.2	+0.1

Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.

CONSISTENCY

What the average hides

483 GAMES

Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.

Category	Floor	Median	Ceiling	Mean	Volatility
assists	2	4	6	4.06	high
minutes	30.1	34	37	33.64	low
points	14	18	23	18.76	medium
rebounds	7	10	13	9.78	medium

Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.

DOUBLE-DOUBLES

Observed frequency across the corpus

483 GAMES

DOUBLE-DOUBLES24450.5% of games

TRIPLE-DOUBLES81.7% of games

10+ ASSISTS183.7%

10+ BLOCKS00.0%

Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.

GAME LOG · 2025–26

One log, the window you choose

10 games

Date	Opp	MIN	EXP MIN	MIN Δ	PTS	FG	2P	3P	FT	OR	DR	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	+/-	TS%
2026-04-12	vs ATL	29	36.83	-21.3%	25	11/18	10/14	1/4	2/4	2	8	10	3	3	2	0	0	+16.0	63%
2026-04-09	@ TOR	37	34.75	+6.5%	24	9/14	7/10	2/4	4/5	4	7	11	8	1	1	1	4	-10.0	74%
2026-04-07	@ TOR	37	34.71	+6.6%	7	2/13	1/6	1/7	2/2	1	8	9	3	1	0	0	0	-13.0	25%
2026-04-04	vs WAS	24	34.36	-30.1%	14	3/6	1/2	2/4	6/7	0	9	9	7	1	0	2	1	+25.0	77%
2026-04-01	vs BOS	38	32.97	+15.3%	29	10/21	5/11	5/10	4/8	4	6	10	2	2	0	3	2	-23.0	59%
2026-03-30	vs PHI	42	33.29	+26.2%	23	5/11	4/7	1/4	12/13	4	12	16	6	1	0	2	2	+27.0	69%
2026-03-29	@ IND	33	34.07	-3.1%	15	6/16	6/13	0/3	3/4	0	12	12	3	0	1	1	1	-9.0	42%
2026-03-27	@ CLE	31	29.89	+3.7%	14	3/14	2/6	1/8	7/8	1	15	16	3	1	1	2	0	-18.0	40%
2026-03-25	@ CLE	33	30.58	+7.9%	17	6/19	5/10	1/9	4/5	1	9	10	7	2	0	1	1	-1.0	40%
2026-03-23	vs SAS	29	31.7	-8.5%	18	5/17	3/7	2/10	6/6	0	3	3	4	1	0	0	0	-26.0	46%

All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.

HISTORY

Season and milestone evidence

DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26

How often did the threshold occur?

historical frequency

These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.

20+ POINTS52.2%36/69 games

10+ REBOUNDS56.5%39/69 games

5+ ASSISTS18.8%13/69 games

2+ THREES44.9%31/69 games

SEASON HISTORY

Regular-season production

accepted player-safe games

Season	Team(s)	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%
2025–26	MIA	69	32.3	20.1	10.1	3.1	44.2%	31.7%	77.1%
2024–25	MIA	76	34.5	18.0	9.6	4.3	48.5%	35.0%	76.8%
2023–24	MIA	71	34.0	19.3	10.4	3.9	52.1%	35.7%	75.4%
2022–23	MIA	75	34.6	20.4	9.2	3.2	54.0%	8.3%	80.6%
2021–22	MIA	56	32.6	19.1	10.1	3.4	55.7%	0.0%	75.3%
2020–21	MIA	64	33.5	18.7	8.9	5.4	57.0%	25.0%	79.9%
2019–20	MIA	72	33.6	15.9	10.2	5.1	55.7%	14.3%	69.1%

AF-PLAYER HISTORY

Season by season

Season	Team	G	AF-Player	Rank	PH$	Band
2025–26	MIA	70	53.9	#66 / 409	23M	Core
2024–25	MIA	82	51.5	#103 / 422	21.6M	Core
2023–24	MIA	78	55.2	#61 / 409	23.9M	Core
2022–23	MIA	100	50.1	#97 / 408	22.3M	Core
2021–22	MIA	72	59.1	#27 / 423	26M	High Value
2020–21	MIA	71	63.9	#14 / 410	27.6M	High Value
2019–20	MIA	91	59.3	#26 / 385	27.7M	High Value

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.

CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY

Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.

governed identity

Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.

Open team profile

IMPACT

Rating and role context

AF-PLAYER

Measured production, 2025–26

#66 OF 409

AF-PLAYER53.9descriptive index, not a win probability

NBA RANK#66of 409 ranked

PH$23MCore

SAMPLE70observed games

Ball security

Box defence

Creation

Efficiency

Rebounding

Scoring

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.

E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE

Distinct signals, side by side

descriptive · current role + historical rating

Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.

VALUE OVER ROLE+57.3 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct

AF MOVEMENT+8.3 pp2024–25 → 2025–26

ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-17.9 min vs latest observed MPG

STAR DEPENDENCY63-0.5 pp next-game What If impact

UNDERUSED

Player movement Opportunities Compare players

Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.

PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26

Pregame role and with/without context

descriptive · not causal

Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.

MIA

Miami Heat

EXPECTED MIN28.7

SCORING SHARE16.8%

CREATION SHARE10.1%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR79.1%

-0.53 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 53 normal-load / 4 nonparticipation games.