Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Norman Powell
Chicago Bulls current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER52.62025–26
NBA RANK#79of 409
PH$20.2MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN20.4governed role
NEXT GAME@ Toronto Raptors2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-0.0 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN29.8
PTS22.0
REB3.5
AST2.5
STL1.1
BLK0.2
3PM2.8
FG%47.7%
3P%38.5%
FT%82.5%
+/-+1.0
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Chicago Bulls
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL23minutes
EXPECTED11.68pregame reference
DEVIATION+96.9%expanded minutes
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G9.2 PTS · 1 REB · 0.4 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G17.4 PTS · 3.8 REB · 2.2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G8 PTS · 1.2 REB · 0.6 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G20.3 PTS · 3.1 REB · 2.4 AST
creation↓
efficiency↓
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring↓
COLD historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS48.0%2591/5395
2-POINT53.8%1592/2960
3-POINT41.0%999/2435
FREE THROW82.8%1389/1677
EFFECTIVE FG%57.3%
TRUE SHOOTING%61.7%
AST / TO1.2
PTS PER 3622.16rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 201 | 29.58 | 18.36 | 3.01 | 1.94 | 2.35 | 1 | 0.3 |
| Away | 216 | 29.4 | 17.96 | 3.23 | 1.78 | 2.44 | 0.95 | 0.28 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.2 | +0.4 | -0.2 | +0.2 | -0.1 | +0.1 | +0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1.85 | high |
| minutes | 24.5 | 29.6 | 35 | 29.49 | low |
| points | 12 | 18 | 25 | 18.15 | medium |
| rebounds | 1.2 | 3 | 5 | 3.12 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES20.5% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | vs ATL | 23 | 11.68 | +96.9% | 25 | 8/17 | 5/10 | 3/7 | 6/6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +8.0 | 64% |
| 2026-04-09 | @ TOR | 17 | 13.19 | +28.9% | 7 | 2/5 | 2/2 | 0/3 | 3/5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -23.0 | 49% |
| 2026-04-07 | @ TOR | 24 | 13.06 | +83.8% | 14 | 4/12 | 2/5 | 2/7 | 4/4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -19.0 | 51% |
| 2026-03-27 | @ CLE | 25 | 22.36 | +11.8% | 15 | 5/10 | 3/5 | 2/5 | 3/3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -12.0 | 66% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ CLE | 34 | 20.89 | +62.8% | 19 | 7/12 | 4/5 | 3/7 | 2/2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6.0 | 74% |
| 2026-03-23 | vs SAS | 30 | 16.37 | +83.2% | 21 | 7/18 | 3/7 | 4/11 | 3/4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -17.0 | 53% |
| 2026-03-19 | vs LAL | 33 | 13.03 | +153.3% | 20 | 7/13 | 6/8 | 1/5 | 5/5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | +6.0 | 66% |
| 2026-03-17 | @ CHA | 31 | 8.12 | +282% | 17 | 7/17 | 6/13 | 1/4 | 2/6 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -23.0 | 43% |
| 2026-03-14 | vs ORL | 31 | 2.33 | +1230.8% | 20 | 7/15 | 6/10 | 1/5 | 5/5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +3.0 | 58% |
| 2026-02-26 | @ PHI | 10 | 15.91 | -37.1% | 3 | 1/5 | 0/1 | 1/4 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -9.0 | 30% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS67.9%38/56 games
10+ REBOUNDS1.8%1/56 games
5+ ASSISTS8.9%5/56 games
2+ THREES75.0%42/56 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | MIA | 56 | 29.8 | 22.0 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 47.7% | 38.5% | 82.5% |
| 2024–25 | LAC | 59 | 32.7 | 22.0 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 48.6% | 42.1% | 81.0% |
| 2023–24 | LAC | 76 | 26.2 | 13.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 48.6% | 43.5% | 83.1% |
| 2022–23 | LAC | 60 | 26.1 | 17.0 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 47.9% | 39.9% | 81.2% |
| 2021–22 | PORLAC | 45 | 32.4 | 19.0 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 46.1% | 41.9% | 81.1% |
| 2020–21 | TORPOR | 69 | 32.0 | 18.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 47.7% | 41.1% | 87.1% |
| 2019–20 | TOR | 52 | 28.4 | 16.0 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 49.5% | 39.9% | 84.3% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | MIA | 57 | 52.6 | #79 / 409 | 20.2M | Core |
| 2024–25 | LAC | 66 | 49.9 | #125 / 422 | 18.6M | Core |
| 2023–24 | LAC | 82 | 42.9 | #204 / 409 | 13.6M | Rotation |
| 2022–23 | LAC | 65 | 48.7 | #114 / 408 | 16.9M | Core |
| 2021–22 | LAC | 47 | 48.2 | #125 / 423 | 16.5M | Core |
| 2020–21 | POR | 76 | 47.7 | #136 / 410 | 19M | Core |
| 2019–20 | TOR | 63 | 49.1 | #104 / 385 | 18.2M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER52.6descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#79of 409 ranked
PH$20.2MCore
SAMPLE57observed games
Ball security73
Box defence30
Creation27
Efficiency65
Rebounding14
Scoring89
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+41.1 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+10.3 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-9.3 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY40-0.0 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
MIA
Miami Heat
EXPECTED MIN22.3
SCORING SHARE18.4%
CREATION SHARE9.0%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR67.8%
-0.63 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 23 normal-load / 6 nonparticipation games.