Final audited reference season.
Toronto RaptorsEAST · ATLANTIC
Toronto Raptors
Canonical ProbHoops team profile. Forecast and movement data are published only when the current release passes the operational governance gates.
playoff direct
30 NBA Cup-dependent regular-season matchups remain unassigned.
2026–27 · ASSIGNED SCHEDULE INTELLIGENCE
Forecast path ahead
Sum of governed win probabilities over 80 assigned games only — not an 82-game projection.
50.0% opponent expected-win rate · #1 is toughest.
Starts only after verified final detailed boxscores.
NEXT 5
Upcoming assigned games
2025–26 PERFORMANCE REFERENCE
AF-Score 63.0
Toronto Raptors finished the last completed season with an AF-Score of 63.0, ranked #8 of 30 in the full historical field. This describes observed team performance; it is not a 2026–27 forecast and not a win probability.
Scoring54.5
Defense69.7
Possession61.6
Creation98.0
Discipline21.4
SAME-GAMES-PLAYED EVOLUTION
How the 2025–26 profile developed
GAME 542.2
GAME 1052.9
GAME 2067.3
GAME 4158.0
GAME 6059.7
FINAL63.0
AF-SCORE HISTORY
Seven-season performance trail
2019–2065.3#3/30
2020–2145.1#22/30
2021–2253.0#16/30
2022–2352.9#14/30
2023–2436.8#24/30
2024–2538.5#23/30
2025–2663.0#8/30
All seven completed seasons now use complete 30-team, full-observed historical fields. Current 2026–27 AF-Score starts only after verified final team box scores arrive.
E67 · ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Depth, dependency and profile fit
Team Depth uses the current governed Expected Minutes allocation and the latest eligible AF-Player observations. Star Dependency combines AF-Player percentile with the player’s governed next-game What If impact percentile within this team. It is model dependency, not causal truth.
Expected-minute-weighted rated rotation.
Mechanical role split, not official bench.
Share of the governed 240-minute team accounting carrying eligible AF-Player.
Expected Minutes concentration only.
STAR DEPENDENCY
Scottie Barnes1 governed next-game sample94dependency-1.7 pp if OUTJakob Poeltl1 governed next-game sample75dependency-0.9 pp if OUTJamison Battle1 governed next-game sample64dependency-0.9 pp if OUTRJ Barrett1 governed next-game sample60dependency-0.9 pp if OUTKyle Anderson1 governed next-game sample43dependency-0.8 pp if OUTPROFILE FIT · rebounding
Statistical profile examples only. Not a trade recommendation.
Rudy GobertMIN · rebounding94Mitchell RobinsonBOS · rebounding93Donovan ClinganPOR · rebounding93Jalen DurenDET · rebounding93Kel'el WareMIL · rebounding93PLAYER ROLE & IMPACT · 2025–26
Who carried the largest pregame role?
These player rows summarize pregame-known role and workload from the last completed season. With/without values, when shown, are residualized historical diagnostics with sample-size gates — not causal injury estimates.
PLAYERScottie Barnes
EXPECTED MIN32.6
SCORING SHARE16.1%
CREATION SHARE19.9%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR85.6%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERBrandon Ingram
EXPECTED MIN31.7
SCORING SHARE18.8%
CREATION SHARE12.6%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR83.7%
WITH/WITHOUT-1.70 residual pts
PLAYERImmanuel Quickley
EXPECTED MIN26.7
SCORING SHARE14.4%
CREATION SHARE21.0%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR76.6%
WITH/WITHOUT+2.55 residual pts
PLAYERRJ Barrett
EXPECTED MIN23.2
SCORING SHARE16.4%
CREATION SHARE11.4%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR68.9%
WITH/WITHOUT+3.37 residual pts
PLAYERJamal Shead
EXPECTED MIN22.3
SCORING SHARE5.8%
CREATION SHARE17.9%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR87.4%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERSandro Mamukelashvili
EXPECTED MIN20.6
SCORING SHARE9.3%
CREATION SHARE6.4%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR85.6%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERJa'Kobe Walter
EXPECTED MIN18.1
SCORING SHARE6.3%
CREATION SHARE4.1%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR80.7%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERJakob Poeltl
EXPECTED MIN17.5
SCORING SHARE8.5%
CREATION SHARE7.1%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR64.9%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
NBA OFFICIAL AVAILABILITY
Current player status
Checking the governed NBA Official availability state.
GAME DAY
Operational status
Checking today and upcoming NBA game state.
PLAYER MILESTONES
Conditional-on-active probabilities
Current rows stay withheld until deterministic NBA-official pre-tip availability is integrated.
MOVEMENT
Release-to-release change
Movement requires two eligible published probability releases from the same season.
Attribution rule
ProbHoops does not infer a cause from a probability delta. A movement driver can be canonical only when deterministic counterfactual provenance reproduces the observed change.