Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Gradey Dick
Toronto Raptors current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER30.82025–26
NBA RANK#371of 409
PH$6.1MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN0.0governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Chicago Bulls2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN14.0
PTS5.9
REB1.9
AST0.6
STL0.6
BLK0.1
3PM0.8
FG%41.8%
3P%31.1%
FT%87.9%
+/-+1.7
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Toronto Raptors
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED4.88pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G2.2 PTS · 0.2 REB · 0.2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G6.6 PTS · 2.4 REB · 0.4 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G2.2 PTS · 0.4 REB · 0.2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G6.8 PTS · 2 REB · 0.6 AST
creation↓
efficiency↓
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS41.6%599/1440
2-POINT49.1%343/699
3-POINT34.5%256/741
FREE THROW86.5%250/289
EFFECTIVE FG%50.5%
TRUE SHOOTING%54.4%
AST / TO1.21
PTS PER 3615.91rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 94 | 21.4 | 9.34 | 2.57 | 1.01 | 1.43 | 0.63 | 0.1 |
| Away | 91 | 20.26 | 9.08 | 2.4 | 1.26 | 1.34 | 0.68 | 0.1 |
| Home − Away | — | +1.1 | +0.3 | +0.2 | -0.3 | +0.1 | -0.1 | 0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.14 | high |
| minutes | 12 | 21 | 31 | 20.84 | medium |
| points | 2 | 8 | 15 | 9.21 | high |
| rebounds | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2.49 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES10.5% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | @ NYK | 12 | 3.46 | +247% | 7 | 3/4 | 2/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -2.0 | 88% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs MIA | 3 | 6.21 | -51.7% | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -11.0 | — |
| 2026-04-07 | vs MIA | 3 | 6.05 | -50.4% | 4 | 1/2 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1.0 | 69% |
| 2026-04-05 | @ BOS | 1 | 6.44 | -84.5% | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.0 | — |
| 2026-03-31 | @ DET | 4 | 8.12 | -50.8% | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.0 | — |
| 2026-03-29 | vs ORL | 23 | 6.1 | +276.8% | 11 | 5/11 | 4/9 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +21.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-27 | vs NOP | 2 | 5.86 | -65.9% | 0 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -7.0 | 0% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ LAC | 4 | 5.44 | -26.4% | 0 | 0/4 | 0/3 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.0 | 0% |
| 2026-03-22 | @ PHX | 15 | 4.02 | +272.8% | 10 | 2/4 | 0/1 | 2/3 | 4/4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +8.0 | 87% |
| 2026-03-18 | @ CHI | 10 | 5.24 | +90.8% | 7 | 3/7 | 2/3 | 1/4 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -6.0 | 50% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS2.8%2/72 games
10+ REBOUNDS1.4%1/72 games
5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/72 games
2+ THREES25.0%18/72 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | TOR | 75 | 30.8 | #371 / 409 | 6.1M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | TOR | 54 | 34.4 | #350 / 422 | 7.6M | Depth |
| 2023–24 | TOR | 59 | 30.5 | #374 / 409 | 6.4M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER30.8descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#371of 409 ranked
PH$6.1MDepth
SAMPLE75observed games
Ball security68
Box defence31
Creation9
Efficiency32
Rebounding24
Scoring38
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role
AF MOVEMENT-7.8 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-13.5 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
TOR
Toronto Raptors
EXPECTED MIN12.5
SCORING SHARE5.2%
CREATION SHARE2.0%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR80.9%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.