Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Jamal Shead
Toronto Raptors current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER30.02025–26
NBA RANK#378of 409
PH$7.4MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN29.0governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Chicago Bulls2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT+0.1 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN22.5
PTS6.6
REB1.8
AST5.3
STL0.9
BLK0.2
3PM1.0
FG%36.5%
3P%32.3%
FT%77.7%
+/-+2.4
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Toronto Raptors
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED26.74pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G4.6 PTS · 0.6 REB · 4.2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G5.8 PTS · 0.6 REB · 6.6 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G5.7 PTS · 0.6 REB · 5.8 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G4.7 PTS · 0.9 REB · 6.7 AST
creation→
efficiency↓
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring↓
COLD historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS38.6%373/966
2-POINT44.3%221/499
3-POINT32.6%152/467
FREE THROW77.1%131/170
EFFECTIVE FG%46.5%
TRUE SHOOTING%49.4%
AST / TO3.28
PTS PER 3611.7rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 74 | 21.12 | 7.28 | 1.64 | 4.89 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.18 |
| Away | 77 | 20.81 | 6.36 | 1.66 | 4.68 | 1.04 | 0.79 | 0.12 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.3 | +0.9 | -0.0 | +0.2 | -0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 3 | 5 | 6 | 4.78 | high |
| minutes | 17 | 21 | 25 | 20.96 | low |
| points | 3 | 6 | 10 | 6.81 | high |
| rebounds | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1.65 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES32.0% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS96.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | @ NYK | 27 | 26.72 | +1% | 5 | 2/7 | 1/4 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -9.0 | 36% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs MIA | 22 | 26.68 | -17.5% | 8 | 3/6 | 1/3 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +13.0 | 67% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs MIA | 24 | 26.91 | -10.8% | 3 | 1/4 | 0/1 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +27.0 | 38% |
| 2026-04-05 | @ BOS | 26 | 27.45 | -5.3% | 7 | 2/8 | 1/5 | 1/3 | 2/2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -7.0 | 39% |
| 2026-04-01 | vs SAC | 37 | 24.69 | +49.9% | 16 | 5/9 | 2/6 | 3/3 | 3/3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +17.0 | 78% |
| 2026-03-31 | @ DET | 29 | 23.21 | +25% | 6 | 2/7 | 1/3 | 1/4 | 1/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +5.0 | 38% |
| 2026-03-29 | vs ORL | 23 | 22.15 | +3.8% | 12 | 4/5 | 4/5 | 0/0 | 4/4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +34.0 | 89% |
| 2026-03-27 | vs NOP | 25 | 21.46 | +16.5% | 0 | 0/4 | 0/1 | 0/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +13.0 | 0% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ LAC | 31 | 21.17 | +46.4% | 8 | 3/9 | 1/4 | 2/5 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -9.0 | 44% |
| 2026-03-22 | @ PHX | 21 | 21.07 | -0.4% | 2 | 1/6 | 1/2 | 0/4 | 0/0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -22.0 | 17% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS1.3%1/78 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/78 games
5+ ASSISTS56.4%44/78 games
2+ THREES30.8%24/78 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | TOR | 85 | 30.0 | #378 / 409 | 7.4M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | TOR | 73 | 31.7 | #381 / 422 | 6.6M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER30.0descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#378of 409 ranked
PH$7.4MDepth
SAMPLE85observed games
Ball security33
Box defence33
Creation94
Efficiency10
Rebounding7
Scoring17
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-55.6 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-2.1 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+5.7 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY9+0.1 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
TOR
Toronto Raptors
EXPECTED MIN22.3
SCORING SHARE5.8%
CREATION SHARE17.9%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR87.4%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.