Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Ja'Kobe Walter
Toronto Raptors current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER40.52025–26
NBA RANK#239of 409
PH$11.3MRotation · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN30.6governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Chicago Bulls2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-0.3 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN20.1
PTS7.3
REB2.5
AST1.2
STL1.0
BLK0.2
3PM1.5
FG%44.5%
3P%39.6%
FT%77.4%
+/--1.3
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Toronto Raptors
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED28.23pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G9.4 PTS · 2.8 REB · 1.4 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G10 PTS · 3.6 REB · 2.2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G8.7 PTS · 2.9 REB · 1.8 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G9 PTS · 2.7 REB · 1.5 AST
creation↑
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding→
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS42.4%320/755
2-POINT49.1%159/324
3-POINT37.4%161/431
FREE THROW77.9%127/163
EFFECTIVE FG%53.0%
TRUE SHOOTING%56.1%
AST / TO1.85
PTS PER 3613.72rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 64 | 20.78 | 8.16 | 2.83 | 1.38 | 1.39 | 0.91 | 0.06 |
| Away | 55 | 20.09 | 7.38 | 2.53 | 1.25 | 1.31 | 0.89 | 0.29 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.7 | +0.8 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.0 | -0.2 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.32 | high |
| minutes | 15 | 21 | 27 | 20.46 | medium |
| points | 3 | 7 | 13 | 7.8 | high |
| rebounds | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2.69 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES10.8% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | @ NYK | 29 | 27.71 | +4.6% | 15 | 5/9 | 1/2 | 4/7 | 1/2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -20.0 | 76% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs MIA | 25 | 27.91 | -10.4% | 7 | 2/5 | 0/0 | 2/5 | 1/2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +18.0 | 60% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs MIA | 27 | 28.35 | -4.8% | 9 | 3/8 | 0/0 | 3/8 | 0/0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +18.0 | 56% |
| 2026-04-05 | @ BOS | 32 | 25.92 | +23.4% | 16 | 6/9 | 2/4 | 4/5 | 0/3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5.0 | 78% |
| 2026-04-01 | vs SAC | 32 | 24.26 | +31.9% | 8 | 3/4 | 1/1 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -8.0 | 100% |
| 2026-03-31 | @ DET | 27 | 23.42 | +15.3% | 3 | 1/6 | 0/1 | 1/5 | 0/0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -1.0 | 25% |
| 2026-03-29 | vs ORL | 28 | 22.37 | +25.1% | 11 | 4/8 | 1/3 | 3/5 | 0/0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +31.0 | 69% |
| 2026-03-27 | vs NOP | 34 | 18.81 | +80.7% | 18 | 6/14 | 2/4 | 4/10 | 2/4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +22.0 | 57% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ LAC | 15 | 20.81 | -27.9% | 5 | 2/3 | 1/1 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -17.0 | 83% |
| 2026-03-22 | @ PHX | 26 | 18.85 | +38% | 13 | 5/7 | 2/4 | 3/3 | 0/0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -9.0 | 93% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS0.0%0/68 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/68 games
5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/68 games
2+ THREES38.2%26/68 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | TOR | 75 | 40.5 | #239 / 409 | 11.3M | Rotation |
| 2024–25 | TOR | 51 | 32.1 | #377 / 422 | 6.3M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER40.5descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#239of 409 ranked
PH$11.3MRotation
SAMPLE75observed games
Ball security76
Box defence43
Creation29
Efficiency56
Rebounding19
Scoring25
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-27.7 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+31.0 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+9.4 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY31-0.3 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
TOR
Toronto Raptors
EXPECTED MIN18.1
SCORING SHARE6.2%
CREATION SHARE4.1%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR80.7%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.