Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
RJ Barrett
Toronto Raptors current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER48.82025–26
NBA RANK#125of 409
PH$17.8MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN33.8governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Chicago Bulls2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-0.9 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN30.4
PTS18.9
REB5.4
AST3.3
STL0.8
BLK0.3
3PM1.6
FG%48.5%
3P%32.1%
FT%73.0%
+/-+1.3
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Toronto Raptors
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED27.57pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G10.6 PTS · 3.8 REB · 1.8 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G19.4 PTS · 6 REB · 3.4 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G13.9 PTS · 3.9 REB · 2.4 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G19.2 PTS · 5.4 REB · 3.2 AST
creation→
efficiency↓
minutes→
rebounding→
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS44.6%2984/6693
2-POINT49.3%2267/4601
3-POINT34.3%717/2092
FREE THROW70.5%1521/2157
EFFECTIVE FG%49.9%
TRUE SHOOTING%53.7%
AST / TO1.49
PTS PER 3620.68rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 212 | 33.1 | 19.54 | 5.64 | 3.23 | 1.67 | 0.67 | 0.3 |
| Away | 223 | 32.6 | 18.22 | 5.39 | 3.31 | 1.63 | 0.7 | 0.27 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.5 | +1.3 | +0.3 | -0.1 | +0.0 | -0.0 | +0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3.27 | high |
| minutes | 28 | 33 | 38 | 32.85 | low |
| points | 13 | 19 | 24 | 18.86 | medium |
| rebounds | 3 | 6 | 7 | 5.51 | medium |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES245.5% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES20.5% of games
10+ ASSISTS71.6%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | vs MIA | 35 | 31.04 | +12.8% | 22 | 6/15 | 5/10 | 1/5 | 9/10 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +14.0 | 57% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs MIA | 31 | 31.46 | -1.5% | 16 | 7/16 | 7/13 | 0/3 | 2/3 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +16.0 | 46% |
| 2026-04-05 | @ BOS | 35 | 31.04 | +12.8% | 15 | 6/17 | 5/13 | 1/4 | 2/2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -15.0 | 42% |
| 2026-04-01 | vs SAC | 36 | 28.95 | +24.3% | 20 | 8/19 | 7/14 | 1/5 | 3/5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +2.0 | 47% |
| 2026-03-31 | @ DET | 31 | 29.21 | +6.1% | 24 | 7/12 | 5/8 | 2/4 | 8/10 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -21.0 | 73% |
| 2026-03-29 | vs ORL | 26 | 29.47 | -11.8% | 24 | 8/14 | 8/10 | 0/4 | 8/8 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | +22.0 | 69% |
| 2026-03-27 | vs NOP | 31 | 30.03 | +3.2% | 18 | 7/14 | 5/8 | 2/6 | 2/2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | +26.0 | 61% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ LAC | 32 | 31.6 | +1.3% | 12 | 5/19 | 5/12 | 0/7 | 2/5 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -23.0 | 28% |
| 2026-03-22 | @ PHX | 23 | 32.59 | -29.4% | 13 | 5/8 | 4/5 | 1/3 | 2/4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -21.0 | 67% |
| 2026-03-20 | @ DEN | 34 | 32.29 | +5.3% | 18 | 6/14 | 5/9 | 1/5 | 5/5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4.0 | 56% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS49.1%26/53 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/53 games
5+ ASSISTS15.1%8/53 games
2+ THREES49.1%26/53 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | TOR | 53 | 30.4 | 18.9 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 48.5% | 32.1% | 73.0% |
| 2024–25 | TOR | 55 | 32.7 | 21.2 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 47.0% | 34.6% | 64.2% |
| 2023–24 | NYKTOR | 57 | 31.7 | 20.3 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 49.7% | 35.8% | 72.0% |
| 2022–23 | NYK | 73 | 34.0 | 19.6 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 43.4% | 31.0% | 74.0% |
| 2021–22 | NYK | 70 | 34.5 | 20.0 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 40.8% | 34.2% | 71.4% |
| 2020–21 | NYK | 72 | 34.9 | 17.6 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 44.1% | 40.1% | 74.6% |
| 2019–20 | NYK | 55 | 30.3 | 14.3 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 40.1% | 32.3% | 62.1% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | TOR | 60 | 48.8 | #125 / 409 | 17.8M | Core |
| 2024–25 | TOR | 55 | 51.4 | #108 / 422 | 18.1M | Core |
| 2023–24 | NYK | 57 | 49.8 | #118 / 409 | 17.1M | Core |
| 2022–23 | NYK | 84 | 36.8 | #294 / 408 | 11M | Rotation |
| 2021–22 | NYK | 70 | 40.4 | #253 / 423 | 12.5M | Rotation |
| 2020–21 | NYK | 77 | 39.0 | #283 / 410 | 11.6M | Rotation |
| 2019–20 | NYK | 55 | 32.5 | #311 / 385 | 8.1M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER48.8descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#125of 409 ranked
PH$17.8MCore
SAMPLE60observed games
Ball security66
Box defence25
Creation39
Efficiency51
Rebounding31
Scoring75
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-4.6 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-5.0 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGESTABLE+2.5 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY60-0.9 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
TOR
Toronto Raptors
EXPECTED MIN23.2
SCORING SHARE16.4%
CREATION SHARE11.4%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR68.9%
+3.37 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 40 normal-load / 3 nonparticipation games.