Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Jakob Poeltl
Toronto Raptors current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER56.42025–26
NBA RANK#44of 409
PH$20.1MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN17.7governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Chicago Bulls2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-0.9 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN25.2
PTS10.8
REB7.1
AST2.0
STL0.8
BLK0.7
3PM0.0
FG%69.6%
3P%—
FT%62.4%
+/-+0.4
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Toronto Raptors
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED22.09pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G8.2 PTS · 2.6 REB · 1 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G13.2 PTS · 4 REB · 1.2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G10.1 PTS · 4 REB · 1.3 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G12.8 PTS · 5.8 REB · 1.6 AST
creation↓
efficiency↑
minutes↓
rebounding↓
scoring↑
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS63.4%2046/3226
2-POINT63.5%2044/3221
3-POINT—2/5
FREE THROW56.1%528/941
EFFECTIVE FG%63.4%
TRUE SHOOTING%63.5%
AST / TO1.64
PTS PER 3615.15rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 210 | 26.23 | 11.11 | 8.43 | 2.5 | 0 | 0.69 | 1.6 |
| Away | 215 | 25.46 | 10.64 | 7.99 | 2.23 | 0.01 | 0.87 | 1.21 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.8 | +0.5 | +0.4 | +0.3 | -0.0 | -0.2 | +0.4 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2.37 | high |
| minutes | 20 | 26.2 | 32 | 25.84 | low |
| points | 6 | 10 | 16 | 10.88 | high |
| rebounds | 5 | 8 | 11 | 8.21 | medium |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES11627.3% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | @ NYK | 19 | 23.14 | -17.9% | 4 | 2/3 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -14.0 | 67% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs MIA | 17 | 24.26 | -29.9% | 6 | 3/4 | 3/4 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +4.0 | 75% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs MIA | 26 | 25.23 | +3% | 17 | 8/13 | 8/13 | 0/0 | 1/3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +4.0 | 59% |
| 2026-04-05 | @ BOS | 20 | 25.48 | -21.5% | 14 | 7/9 | 7/9 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -16.0 | 78% |
| 2026-04-01 | vs SAC | 28 | 24.04 | +16.5% | 18 | 6/8 | 6/8 | 0/0 | 6/8 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -9.0 | 78% |
| 2026-03-31 | @ DET | 23 | 24.68 | -6.8% | 13 | 6/9 | 6/9 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -16.0 | 66% |
| 2026-03-29 | vs ORL | 25 | 24.25 | +3.1% | 11 | 5/7 | 5/7 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +29.0 | 70% |
| 2026-03-27 | vs NOP | 30 | 24.63 | +21.8% | 18 | 9/11 | 9/11 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +15.0 | 82% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ LAC | 22 | 25.64 | -14.2% | 10 | 5/9 | 5/9 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -11.0 | 51% |
| 2026-03-22 | @ PHX | 17 | 27.59 | -38.4% | 0 | 0/1 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -13.0 | 0% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS9.1%4/44 games
10+ REBOUNDS20.4%9/44 games
5+ ASSISTS4.5%2/44 games
2+ THREES0.0%0/44 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | TOR | 44 | 25.2 | 10.8 | 7.1 | 2.0 | 69.6% | — | 62.4% |
| 2024–25 | TOR | 57 | 29.6 | 14.5 | 9.6 | 2.8 | 62.7% | 33.3% | 67.4% |
| 2023–24 | TOR | 49 | 26.4 | 11.2 | 8.6 | 2.5 | 66.0% | — | 55.3% |
| 2022–23 | SASTOR | 72 | 26.5 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 2.7 | 62.9% | 0.0% | 59.2% |
| 2021–22 | SAS | 68 | 28.9 | 13.5 | 9.3 | 2.8 | 61.8% | 100.0% | 49.5% |
| 2020–21 | SAS | 69 | 26.7 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 1.9 | 61.6% | — | 50.8% |
| 2019–20 | SAS | 66 | 17.7 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 62.4% | — | 46.5% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | TOR | 51 | 56.4 | #44 / 409 | 20.1M | Core |
| 2024–25 | TOR | 57 | 62.0 | #19 / 422 | 23.5M | Core |
| 2023–24 | TOR | 49 | 60.4 | #24 / 409 | 21.6M | Core |
| 2022–23 | TOR | 73 | 61.7 | #16 / 408 | 24.1M | Core |
| 2021–22 | SAS | 69 | 60.8 | #20 / 423 | 25.2M | High Value |
| 2020–21 | SAS | 70 | 53.5 | #76 / 410 | 21.1M | Core |
| 2019–20 | SAS | 66 | 57.2 | #36 / 385 | 20M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER56.4descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#44of 409 ranked
PH$20.1MCore
SAMPLE51observed games
Ball security37
Box defence47
Creation29
Efficiency86
Rebounding71
Scoring35
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+58.0 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-6.3 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-6.6 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY75-0.9 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
TOR
Toronto Raptors
EXPECTED MIN17.5
SCORING SHARE8.5%
CREATION SHARE7.1%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR64.9%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.