CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE

A.J. Lawson

Toronto Raptors current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.

Toronto Raptors · current teamGCanadaSouth Carolina

AF-PLAYER38.62024–25

NBA RANK#294of 422

PH$6.8MDepth · fictional game currency

STATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status

EXPECTED MIN12.9governed role

NEXT GAMEvs Chicago Bulls2026-10-21 WHAT IF IMPACT-0.4 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual

REGULAR-SEASON GAMES98

Player-safe accepted corpus.

CAREER PPG · CORPUS4.7

2019–20 through 2025–26 window.

CAREER RPG · CORPUS1.8

Historical window, not full NBA career.

CAREER APG · CORPUS0.5

Historical window, not full NBA career.

LATEST COMPLETED SEASON

2025–26

20 games

MIN10.0

PTS4.2

REB1.9

AST0.3

STL0.5

BLK0.1

3PM0.8

FG%40.9%

3P%41.0%

FT%81.3%

+/--0.6

NEXT GAME

Current context

2026–27 · Toronto Raptors

Assigned schedule

NBA Official roster

2026-10-21 · HOMEvs Chicago Bulls66.2% winProjected 112–116

2026-10-23 · AWAY@ Washington Wizards53.7% winProjected 115–114

2026-10-25 · AWAY@ Minnesota Timberwolves40.9% winProjected 112–114

2026-10-28 · HOMEvs Orlando Magic60.2% winProjected 111–114

2026-10-30 · HOMEvs Orlando Magic60.2% winProjected 111–114

E66 · PLAYER PROJECTION

Loading next-game projection…

PTS / REB / AST / 3PM use a separately validated player-stat model. Game Win, projected team score, Form and milestones keep their own authorities.

Current team Open Player What If

MINUTES + FORM

Role-adjusted performance

CURRENT FORM · 2026–27

Waiting for completed player boxscores

PRESEASON / NO SAMPLE

ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.

LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26

Historical Minutes Intelligence

DESCRIPTIVE · NOT CURRENT

Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.

LATEST ACTUAL0minutes

EXPECTED9.78pregame reference

DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown

LAST 5

ALL OBSERVED5 G1 PTS · 1.8 REB · 0.2 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT1 G6 PTS · 1 REB · 0 AST

LAST 10

ALL OBSERVED10 G3.4 PTS · 1.7 REB · 0.4 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT1 G6 PTS · 1 REB · 0 AST

creation—

efficiency—

minutes—

rebounding—

scoring—

Form label withheld: insufficient role-consistent sample. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.

SPLITS + EFFICIENCY

How the production is built

EFFICIENCY

Shooting, derived from the box score

CAREER · 98 GAMES

2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.

FIELD GOALS43.4%169/389

2-POINT54.4%106/195

3-POINT32.5%63/194

FREE THROW67.4%64/95

EFFECTIVE FG%51.5%

TRUE SHOOTING%54.0%

AST / TO1.47

PTS PER 3616.07rate, not projection

HOME / AWAY

Where the games were played

46 HOME · 52 AWAY

Split	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	STL	BLK
Home	46	10.46	4.7	1.72	0.7	0.72	0.39	0.17
Away	52	10.79	4.79	1.85	0.4	0.58	0.29	0.08
Home − Away	—	-0.3	-0.1	-0.1	+0.3	+0.1	+0.1	+0.1

Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.

CONSISTENCY

What the average hides

98 GAMES

Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.

Category	Floor	Median	Ceiling	Mean	Volatility
assists	0	0	1	0.54	high
minutes	2	6	20.2	10.63	high
points	0	3	9.6	4.74	high
rebounds	0	1	3	1.79	high

Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.

DOUBLE-DOUBLES

Observed frequency across the corpus

98 GAMES

DOUBLE-DOUBLES11.0% of games

TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games

10+ ASSISTS00.0%

10+ BLOCKS00.0%

Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.

GAME LOG · 2025–26

One log, the window you choose

10 games

Date	Opp	MIN	EXP MIN	MIN Δ	PTS	FG	2P	3P	FT	OR	DR	REB	AST	STL	TOV	PF	+/-	TS%
2026-04-10	@ NYK	22	8.61	+155.4%	5	1/5	0/1	1/4	2/2	2	4	6	1	1	0	1	+3.0	43%
2026-04-09	vs MIA	3	10.56	-71.6%	0	0/2	0/1	0/1	0/2	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	-11.0	0%
2026-04-07	vs MIA	3	10.84	-72.3%	0	0/2	0/2	0/0	0/0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	+1.0	0%
2026-04-05	@ BOS	6	9.96	-39.8%	0	0/1	0/0	0/1	0/0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0.0	0%
2026-04-01	vs SAC	16	7.39	+116.5%	2	1/3	1/1	0/2	0/0	0	1	1	1	0	0	2	-13.0	33%
2026-03-31	@ DET	19	4.29	+342.5%	13	4/5	1/2	3/3	2/3	0	3	3	0	1	1	0	+16.0	103%
2026-03-29	vs ORL	19	1.01	+1784.8%	14	5/7	1/1	4/6	0/0	0	2	2	2	3	0	4	+31.0	100%
2026-03-27	vs NOP	5	—	—	0	0/0	0/0	0/0	0/0	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	-8.0	—
2026-03-03	vs NYK	1	—	—	0	0/0	0/0	0/0	0/0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0	—
2026-01-21	@ SAC	3	10.87	-72.4%	0	0/0	0/0	0/0	0/0	1	0	1	0	0	1	1	-4.0	—

All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.

HISTORY

Season and milestone evidence

DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26

How often did the threshold occur?

historical frequency

These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.

20+ POINTS0.0%0/20 games

10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/20 games

5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/20 games

2+ THREES20.0%4/20 games

SEASON HISTORY

Regular-season production

accepted player-safe games

Season	Team(s)	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%
2025–26	TOR	20	10.0	4.2	1.9	0.3	40.9%	41.0%	81.3%
2024–25	TOR	23	18.2	8.3	2.8	1.0	41.8%	30.0%	70.8%
2023–24	DAL	40	7.8	3.4	1.3	0.5	44.6%	26.0%	65.2%
2022–23	DAL MIN	15	7.3	3.7	1.4	0.1	50.0%	40.0%	25.0%

AF-PLAYER HISTORY

Season by season

Season	Team	G	AF-Player	Rank	PH$	Band
2024–25	TOR	23	38.6	#294 / 422	6.8M	Depth
2023–24	DAL	52	34.3	#344 / 409	5.8M	Depth

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.

CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY

Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.

governed identity

Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.

Open team profile

IMPACT

Rating and role context

AF-PLAYER

Measured production, 2024–25

#294 OF 422

AF-PLAYER38.6descriptive index, not a win probability

NBA RANK#294of 422 ranked

PH$6.8MDepth

SAMPLE23observed games

Ball security

Box defence

Creation

Efficiency

Rebounding

Scoring

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.

E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE

Distinct signals, side by side

descriptive · current role + historical rating

Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.

VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role

AF MOVEMENT—two eligible completed seasons required

ROLE CHANGEUNAVAILABLEcomparison unavailable

STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable

Player movement Opportunities Compare players

Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.

PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26

Pregame role and with/without context

descriptive · not causal

Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.

TOR

Toronto Raptors

EXPECTED MIN5.4

SCORING SHARE4.0%

CREATION SHARE0.8%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR51.5%

With/without sample did not qualify for publication.