CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE

Tyler Herro

Milwaukee Bucks current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.

Milwaukee Bucks · current teamGUSAKentucky

AF-PLAYER52.12025–26

NBA RANK#86of 409

PH$16.2MCore · fictional game currency

STATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status

EXPECTED MIN34.5governed role

NEXT GAME@ Washington Wizards2026-10-21 WHAT IF IMPACT-2.0 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual

REGULAR-SEASON GAMES386

Player-safe accepted corpus.

CAREER PPG · CORPUS19.4

2019–20 through 2025–26 window.

CAREER RPG · CORPUS5.0

Historical window, not full NBA career.

CAREER APG · CORPUS4.1

Historical window, not full NBA career.

LATEST COMPLETED SEASON

2025–26

30 games

MIN31.3

PTS20.3

REB4.7

AST4.2

STL0.7

BLK0.3

3PM2.6

FG%48.0%

3P%38.6%

FT%91.4%

+/--1.7

NEXT GAME

Current context

2026–27 · Milwaukee Bucks

Assigned schedule

NBA Official roster

2026-10-21 · AWAY@ Washington Wizards45.0% winProjected 114–115

2026-10-23 · HOMEvs Chicago Bulls57.9% winProjected 113–115

2026-10-24 · AWAY@ Philadelphia 76ers33.3% winProjected 112–116

2026-10-26 · HOMEvs Indiana Pacers49.6% winProjected 113–115

2026-10-28 · HOMEvs Houston Rockets41.1% winProjected 113–113

E66 · PLAYER PROJECTION

Loading next-game projection…

PTS / REB / AST / 3PM use a separately validated player-stat model. Game Win, projected team score, Form and milestones keep their own authorities.

Current team Open Player What If

MINUTES + FORM

Role-adjusted performance

CURRENT FORM · 2026–27

Waiting for completed player boxscores

PRESEASON / NO SAMPLE

ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.

LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26

Historical Minutes Intelligence

DESCRIPTIVE · NOT CURRENT

Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.

LATEST ACTUAL22minutes

EXPECTED34.42pregame reference

DEVIATION-36.1%low minutes deviation

LAST 5

ALL OBSERVED5 G6.8 PTS · 3.8 REB · 3.6 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G17.8 PTS · 3.4 REB · 4.6 AST

LAST 10

ALL OBSERVED10 G14.2 PTS · 3.4 REB · 4.1 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT9 G19.22 PTS · 3.67 REB · 3.22 AST

creation↑

efficiency→

minutes→

rebounding→

scoring→

MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.

SPLITS + EFFICIENCY

How the production is built

EFFICIENCY

Shooting, derived from the box score

CAREER · 386 GAMES

2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.

FIELD GOALS45.0%2728/6069

2-POINT50.5%1676/3320

3-POINT38.3%1052/2749

FREE THROW87.7%986/1124

EFFECTIVE FG%53.6%

TRUE SHOOTING%57.1%

AST / TO1.84

PTS PER 3621.51rate, not projection

HOME / AWAY

Where the games were played

191 HOME · 195 AWAY

Split	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	STL	BLK
Home	191	32.5	19.41	4.87	4.16	2.76	0.75	0.25
Away	195	32.5	19.42	5.13	3.96	2.69	0.68	0.16
Home − Away	—	0.0	-0.0	-0.3	+0.2	+0.1	+0.1	+0.1

Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.

CONSISTENCY

What the average hides

386 GAMES

Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.

Category	Floor	Median	Ceiling	Mean	Volatility
assists	2	4	6	4.06	high
minutes	28.4	33.6	38	32.5	low
points	13	19	26	19.41	medium
rebounds	3	5	7	5	high

Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.

DOUBLE-DOUBLES

Observed frequency across the corpus

386 GAMES

DOUBLE-DOUBLES266.7% of games

TRIPLE-DOUBLES10.3% of games

10+ ASSISTS102.6%

10+ BLOCKS00.0%

Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.

GAME LOG · 2025–26

One log, the window you choose

10 games

Date	Opp	MIN	EXP MIN	MIN Δ	PTS	FG	2P	3P	FT	OR	DR	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	+/-	TS%
2026-04-12	vs ATL	22	34.42	-36.1%	5	2/9	1/3	1/6	0/0	0	10	10	8	1	0	3	1	+10.0	28%
2026-04-09	@ TOR	28	34.77	-19.5%	15	6/12	3/7	3/5	0/0	0	4	4	4	0	0	1	5	-2.0	63%
2026-04-07	@ TOR	30	35.23	-14.8%	14	5/8	4/4	1/4	3/4	0	5	5	6	0	0	1	2	-12.0	72%
2026-04-01	vs BOS	40	31.67	+26.3%	18	5/15	1/5	4/10	4/4	0	3	3	7	0	1	3	5	-11.0	54%
2026-03-30	vs PHI	42	29.85	+40.7%	30	12/24	9/14	3/10	3/5	0	4	4	3	1	2	3	2	+18.0	57%
2026-03-29	@ IND	36	29.46	+22.2%	31	12/22	7/9	5/13	2/2	1	2	3	4	0	0	0	1	-11.0	68%
2026-03-27	@ CLE	31	29.35	+5.6%	11	4/13	3/9	1/4	2/2	1	2	3	5	0	0	1	3	-23.0	40%
2026-03-25	@ CLE	30	29.58	+1.4%	18	6/11	2/3	4/8	2/2	0	2	2	4	3	0	2	1	+21.0	76%
2026-03-23	vs SAS	26	26.7	-2.6%	18	6/11	4/5	2/6	4/4	0	5	5	2	0	1	2	0	-19.0	71%
2026-03-21	@ HOU	39	21.46	+81.8%	25	10/22	8/13	2/9	3/3	0	6	6	4	1	0	0	0	+12.0	54%

All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.

HISTORY

Season and milestone evidence

DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26

How often did the threshold occur?

historical frequency

These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.

20+ POINTS56.7%17/30 games

10+ REBOUNDS3.3%1/30 games

5+ ASSISTS43.3%13/30 games

2+ THREES70.0%21/30 games

SEASON HISTORY

Regular-season production

accepted player-safe games

Season	Team(s)	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%
2025–26	MIA	30	31.3	20.3	4.7	4.2	48.0%	38.6%	91.4%
2024–25	MIA	74	35.5	23.8	5.2	5.5	46.9%	37.5%	87.5%
2023–24	MIA	42	33.5	20.8	5.3	4.5	44.1%	39.6%	85.6%
2022–23	MIA	67	34.9	20.1	5.4	4.2	43.9%	37.8%	93.4%
2021–22	MIA	64	32.7	21.0	5.1	4.0	44.8%	39.9%	87.1%
2020–21	MIA	54	30.3	15.1	5.0	3.4	43.9%	36.0%	80.3%
2019–20	MIA	55	27.4	13.5	4.1	2.2	42.8%	38.9%	87.0%

AF-PLAYER HISTORY

Season by season

Season	Team	G	AF-Player	Rank	PH$	Band
2025–26	MIA	31	52.1	#86 / 409	16.2M	Core
2024–25	MIA	80	55.4	#58 / 422	24.8M	Core
2023–24	MIA	49	45.4	#165 / 409	14.1M	Rotation
2022–23	MIA	70	43.6	#190 / 408	14.9M	Rotation
2021–22	MIA	77	46.4	#154 / 423	17.5M	Core
2020–21	MIA	61	40.5	#259 / 410	10.8M	Rotation
2019–20	MIA	77	38.4	#251 / 385	11.7M	Rotation

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.

CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY

Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.

governed identity

Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.

Open team profile

IMPACT

Rating and role context

AF-PLAYER

Measured production, 2025–26

#86 OF 409

AF-PLAYER52.1descriptive index, not a win probability

NBA RANK#86of 409 ranked

PH$16.2MCore

SAMPLE31observed games

Ball security

Box defence

Creation

Efficiency

Rebounding

Scoring

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.

E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE

Distinct signals, side by side

descriptive · current role + historical rating

Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.

VALUE OVER ROLE+1.7 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct

AF MOVEMENT-7.3 pp2024–25 → 2025–26

ROLE CHANGESTABLE+3.1 min vs latest observed MPG

STAR DEPENDENCY83-2.0 pp next-game What If impact

Player movement Opportunities Compare players

Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.

PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26

Pregame role and with/without context

descriptive · not causal

Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.

MIA

Miami Heat

EXPECTED MIN17.7

SCORING SHARE19.1%

CREATION SHARE11.2%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR53.3%

With/without sample did not qualify for publication.