Milwaukee Bucks

EAST · CENTRAL

Milwaukee Bucks

Canonical ProbHoops team profile. Forecast and movement data are published only when the current release passes the operational governance gates.

2025–26 RECORD32–50

Final audited reference season.

CONFERENCE SEED#11

out

2026–27 SEASON PROBABILITYWithheld

30 NBA Cup-dependent regular-season matchups remain unassigned.

2026–27 · ASSIGNED SCHEDULE INTELLIGENCE

Forecast path ahead

80 official games

ASSIGNED EXPECTED WINS32.9

Sum of governed win probabilities over 80 assigned games only — not an 82-game projection.

ASSIGNED SCHEDULE SOS#9 / 30

50.3% opponent expected-win rate · #1 is toughest.

CURRENT AF-SCOREPending

Starts only after verified final detailed boxscores.

NEXT 5

Upcoming assigned games

All game forecasts

2026-10-21 · AWAY@ WAS45.0% winProjected 114–115Open What If

2026-10-23 · HOMEvs CHI57.9% winProjected 113–115Open What If

2026-10-24 · AWAY@ PHI33.3% winProjected 112–116Open What If

2026-10-26 · HOMEvs IND49.6% winProjected 113–115Open What If

2026-10-28 · HOMEvs HOU41.1% winProjected 113–113Open What If

2025–26 PERFORMANCE REFERENCE

AF-Score 29.4

#26 of 30

Milwaukee Bucks finished the last completed season with an AF-Score of 29.4, ranked #26 of 30 in the full historical field. This describes observed team performance; it is not a 2026–27 forecast and not a win probability.

Scoring48.2

Defense22.0

Possession4.6

Creation36.5

Discipline38.1

100.0% detailed coverage82/82 games with complete detail0–100 descriptive scale

SAME-GAMES-PLAYED EVOLUTION

How the 2025–26 profile developed

Compared after the same number of team games.

GAME 556.4

GAME 1049.8

GAME 2042.2

GAME 4139.7

GAME 6036.4

FINAL29.4

AF-SCORE HISTORY

Seven-season performance trail

2019–20 → 2025–26

2019–2072.5#1/30

2020–2167.9#2/30

2021–2260.3#8/30

2022–2362.1#7/30

2023–2457.6#13/30

2024–2557.7#11/30

2025–2629.4#26/30

All seven completed seasons now use complete 30-team, full-observed historical fields. Current 2026–27 AF-Score starts only after verified final team box scores arrive.

2026–27 · NBA OFFICIAL CURRENT ROSTER

Roster AF-Player ranking

11 rated · 11 pending

Roster identity is NBA Official. AF-Player / NBA rank / PH$ use the latest completed measured season (2025–26); Expected Minutes comes from the accepted operational prior. Pending is not a low rank, and cold starts or unresolved historical identities receive no invented rating.

RATED PH$ COVERAGE11/2250% of current roster linked to an eligible 2025–26 rating

RATED PH$ TOTAL142.3MRated subset only; not a salary or complete roster price

TOP-5 RATED PH$87.0MFive highest PH$ values among rated current-roster identities

TOP-3 CONCENTRATION40%Share of rated PH$ carried by the top three rated values

TEAM RANK#1

PLAYERKel'el WareC · #9 · accepted role prior

AF-PLAYER56.0

NBA RANK#46

PH$22.2MCore

EXPECTED MIN42.0

TEAM RANK#2

PLAYERTyler HerroG · #11 · accepted role prior

AF-PLAYER52.1

NBA RANK#86

PH$16.2MCore

EXPECTED MIN34.5

TEAM RANK#3

PLAYERKevin Porter Jr.G-F · #7 · accepted role prior

AF-PLAYER50.8

NBA RANK#98

PH$16.5MCore

EXPECTED MIN0.0

TEAM RANK#4

PLAYERRyan RollinsG · #13 · accepted role prior

AF-PLAYER48.0

NBA RANK#132

PH$18.1MCore

EXPECTED MIN0.0

TEAM RANK#5

PLAYERJericho SimsC · #00 · accepted role prior

AF-PLAYER46.4

NBA RANK#155

PH$12.8MRotation

EXPECTED MIN23.4

TEAM RANK#6

PLAYERMyles TurnerC-F · #3 · accepted role prior

AF-PLAYER44.7

NBA RANK#186

PH$14.0MRotation

EXPECTED MIN0.0

TEAM RANK#7

PLAYERPete NanceF · #35 · accepted role prior

AF-PLAYER44.2

NBA RANK#190

PH$9.8MDepth

EXPECTED MIN39.6

TEAM RANK#8

PLAYERKyle KuzmaF · #18 · accepted role prior

AF-PLAYER43.8

NBA RANK#196

PH$13.3MRotation

EXPECTED MIN0.0

TEAM RANK#9

PLAYEROusmane DiengF · #21 · accepted role prior

AF-PLAYER33.9

NBA RANK#339

PH$6.5MDepth

EXPECTED MIN22.3

TEAM RANK#10

PLAYERCaris LeVertG · #8 · accepted role prior

AF-PLAYER32.4

NBA RANK#360

PH$6.6MDepth

EXPECTED MIN17.3

TEAM RANK#11

PLAYERGary Trent Jr.G · #5 · accepted role prior

AF-PLAYER28.8

NBA RANK#385

PH$6.3MDepth

EXPECTED MIN37.6

TEAM RANKPending

PLAYERCormac RyanG · #30 · accepted role prior

AF-PLAYER—

NBA RANK—

PH$—no eligible sample

EXPECTED MIN20.3

TEAM RANKPending

PLAYERThanasis AntetokounmpoF · #43 · accepted role prior

AF-PLAYER—

NBA RANK—

PH$—no eligible sample

EXPECTED MIN3.0

TEAM RANKPending

PLAYERAJ GreenG · #20 · cold start

AF-PLAYER—

NBA RANK—

PH$—no eligible sample

EXPECTED MIN0.0

TEAM RANKPending

PLAYERAlex AntetokounmpoF · #29 · historical identity unresolved

AF-PLAYER—

NBA RANK—

PH$—no eligible sample

EXPECTED MIN0.0

TEAM RANKPending

PLAYERBogoljub MarkovićF · #23 · cold start

AF-PLAYER—

NBA RANK—

PH$—no eligible sample

EXPECTED MIN0.0

TEAM RANKPending

PLAYERBrayden BurriesG · #0 · cold start

AF-PLAYER—

NBA RANK—

PH$—no eligible sample

EXPECTED MIN0.0

TEAM RANKPending

PLAYERJaime Jaquez Jr.G · #24 · role prior pending

AF-PLAYER—

NBA RANK—

PH$—no eligible sample

EXPECTED MIN0.0

TEAM RANKPending

PLAYERKam JonesG · #7 · cold start

AF-PLAYER—

NBA RANK—

PH$—no eligible sample

EXPECTED MIN0.0

TEAM RANKPending

PLAYERKasparas JakučionisG · #25 · cold start

AF-PLAYER—

NBA RANK—

PH$—no eligible sample

EXPECTED MIN0.0

TEAM RANKPending

PLAYERMalique LewisF · cold start

AF-PLAYER—

NBA RANK—

PH$—no eligible sample

EXPECTED MIN0.0

TEAM RANKPending

PLAYERNate AmentF · cold start

AF-PLAYER—

NBA RANK—

PH$—no eligible sample

EXPECTED MIN0.0

11 current-roster players remain Pending. They are listed after every eligible player and are never assigned an artificial low AF-Player or team rank.

E67 · ROSTER INTELLIGENCE

Depth, dependency and profile fit

descriptive + model context

Team Depth uses the current governed Expected Minutes allocation and the latest eligible AF-Player observations. Star Dependency combines AF-Player percentile with the player’s governed next-game What If impact percentile within this team. It is model dependency, not causal truth.

WEIGHTED AF-PLAYER43.3

Expected-minute-weighted rated rotation.

OUTSIDE TOP-3 AF43.06

Mechanical role split, not official bench.

RATED MINUTES90%

Share of the governed 240-minute team accounting carrying eligible AF-Player.

TOP-3 ROLE SHARE50%

Expected Minutes concentration only.

STAR DEPENDENCY

Kel'el Ware1 governed next-game sample94dependency-2.3 pp if OUT Tyler Herro1 governed next-game sample83dependency-2.0 pp if OUT Pete Nance1 governed next-game sample64dependency-0.8 pp if OUT Jericho Sims1 governed next-game sample50dependency-0.6 pp if OUT Gary Trent Jr.1 governed next-game sample28dependency-0.7 pp if OUT

PROFILE FIT · creation

Statistical profile examples only. Not a trade recommendation.

Davion MitchellMIA · creation92 Cam SpencerMEM · creation91 T.J. McConnellIND · creation89 Andrew NembhardIND · creation89 Tre JonesCHI · creation88

Open league roster intelligence

PLAYER ROLE & IMPACT · 2025–26

Who carried the largest pregame role?

historical reference

These player rows summarize pregame-known role and workload from the last completed season. With/without values, when shown, are residualized historical diagnostics with sample-size gates — not causal injury estimates.

PLAYERRyan Rollins

EXPECTED MIN30.7

SCORING SHARE14.8%

CREATION SHARE21.2%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR84.9%

WITH/WITHOUT-6.06 residual pts

PLAYERA.J. Green

EXPECTED MIN26.8

SCORING SHARE8.8%

CREATION SHARE6.9%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR82.7%

WITH/WITHOUT-4.06 residual pts

PLAYERMyles Turner

EXPECTED MIN25.1

SCORING SHARE11.0%

CREATION SHARE6.5%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR82.0%

WITH/WITHOUT+1.61 residual pts

PLAYERKyle Kuzma

EXPECTED MIN24.0

SCORING SHARE11.5%

CREATION SHARE9.3%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR82.1%

WITH/WITHOUT+7.15 residual pts

PLAYERBobby Portis

EXPECTED MIN22.0

SCORING SHARE11.8%

CREATION SHARE6.0%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR83.5%

WITH/WITHOUT-3.80 residual pts

PLAYEROusmane Dieng

EXPECTED MIN20.4

SCORING SHARE8.0%

CREATION SHARE7.8%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR82.2%

WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified

PLAYERKevin Porter Jr.

EXPECTED MIN20.3

SCORING SHARE13.9%

CREATION SHARE25.2%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR59.8%

WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified

PLAYERGary Trent Jr.

EXPECTED MIN18.1

SCORING SHARE7.0%

CREATION SHARE4.8%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR76.2%

WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified

NBA OFFICIAL AVAILABILITY

Current player status

checking

Checking the governed NBA Official availability state.

GAME DAY

Operational status

checking

Checking today and upcoming NBA game state.

PLAYER MILESTONES

Conditional-on-active probabilities

checking

Current rows stay withheld until deterministic NBA-official pre-tip availability is integrated.

MOVEMENT

Release-to-release change

checking

Movement requires two eligible published probability releases from the same season.

Attribution rule

ProbHoops does not infer a cause from a probability delta. A movement driver can be canonical only when deterministic counterfactual provenance reproduces the observed change.