CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE

Nikola Jokic

Denver Nuggets current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.

Denver Nuggets · current teamCSerbiaMega Basket

Photo: Erik Drost · Wikimedia Commons · CC BY 2.0

AF-PLAYER79.32025–26

NBA RANK#1of 409

PH$28.4MHigh Value · fictional game currency

STATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status

EXPECTED MIN42.0governed role

NEXT GAME@ Oklahoma City Thunder2026-10-22 WHAT IF IMPACT-2.4 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual

REGULAR-SEASON GAMES497

Player-safe accepted corpus.

CAREER PPG · CORPUS26.0

2019–20 through 2025–26 window.

CAREER RPG · CORPUS12.0

Historical window, not full NBA career.

CAREER APG · CORPUS8.9

Historical window, not full NBA career.

LATEST COMPLETED SEASON

2025–26

60 games

MIN34.9

PTS28.3

REB12.6

AST10.5

STL1.4

BLK0.9

3PM1.8

FG%57.4%

3P%38.9%

FT%83.5%

+/-+8.1

NEXT GAME

Current context

2026–27 · Denver Nuggets

Assigned schedule

NBA Official roster

2026-10-22 · AWAY@ Oklahoma City Thunder33.0% winProjected 112–117

2026-10-24 · HOMEvs New Orleans Pelicans67.3% winProjected 113–118

2026-10-26 · HOMEvs Golden State Warriors63.1% winProjected 113–117

2026-10-28 · AWAY@ New Orleans Pelicans53.9% winProjected 115–115

2026-10-30 · AWAY@ Phoenix Suns44.6% winProjected 114–115

E66 · PLAYER PROJECTION

Loading next-game projection…

PTS / REB / AST / 3PM use a separately validated player-stat model. Game Win, projected team score, Form and milestones keep their own authorities.

Current team Open Player What If

MINUTES + FORM

Role-adjusted performance

CURRENT FORM · 2026–27

Waiting for completed player boxscores

PRESEASON / NO SAMPLE

ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.

LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26

Historical Minutes Intelligence

DESCRIPTIVE · NOT CURRENT

Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.

LATEST ACTUAL18minutes

EXPECTED37.21pregame reference

DEVIATION-51.6%low minutes deviation

LAST 5

ALL OBSERVED5 G19.6 PTS · 6 REB · 5.4 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G27.6 PTS · 13.8 REB · 11.8 AST

LAST 10

ALL OBSERVED10 G17.9 PTS · 7.7 REB · 6.4 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G27 PTS · 14.5 REB · 12 AST

creation→

efficiency↓

minutes→

rebounding→

scoring↓

MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.

SPLITS + EFFICIENCY

How the production is built

EFFICIENCY

Shooting, derived from the box score

CAREER · 497 GAMES

2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.

FIELD GOALS57.7%4923/8531

2-POINT63.1%4267/6761

3-POINT37.1%656/1770

FREE THROW82.4%2401/2915

EFFECTIVE FG%61.6%

TRUE SHOOTING%65.7%

AST / TO2.66

PTS PER 3627.28rate, not projection

HOME / AWAY

Where the games were played

250 HOME · 247 AWAY

Split	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	STL	BLK
Home	250	34.48	26.32	12.16	9.46	1.29	1.48	0.75
Away	247	34.04	25.6	11.78	8.36	1.35	1.32	0.73
Home − Away	—	+0.4	+0.7	+0.4	+1.1	-0.1	+0.2	+0.0

Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.

CONSISTENCY

What the average hides

497 GAMES

Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.

Category	Floor	Median	Ceiling	Mean	Volatility
assists	6	9	12	8.91	medium
minutes	30.4	35	38	34.26	low
points	19	26	33	25.96	medium
rebounds	9	12	15	11.97	medium

Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.

DOUBLE-DOUBLES

Observed frequency across the corpus

497 GAMES

DOUBLE-DOUBLES40481.3% of games

TRIPLE-DOUBLES16533.2% of games

10+ ASSISTS21443.1%

10+ BLOCKS00.0%

Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.

GAME LOG · 2025–26

One log, the window you choose

10 games

Date	Opp	MIN	EXP MIN	MIN Δ	PTS	FG	2P	3P	FT	OR	DR	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	+/-	TS%
2026-04-12	@ SAS	18	37.21	-51.6%	23	7/12	6/10	1/2	8/8	4	4	8	1	0	1	0	1	+6.0	74%
2026-04-06	vs POR	43	36.68	+17.2%	35	15/31	14/26	1/5	4/4	7	7	14	13	5	2	6	2	+5.0	53%
2026-04-04	vs SAS	44	34.61	+27.1%	40	13/25	12/20	1/5	13/15	1	7	8	13	0	3	0	4	+12.0	63%
2026-03-29	vs GSW	36	35.13	+2.5%	25	10/20	6/12	4/8	1/1	3	12	15	8	1	0	2	3	+16.0	61%
2026-03-27	vs UTA	39	35	+11.4%	33	13/16	11/14	2/2	5/8	4	11	15	12	1	0	7	0	+13.0	85%
2026-03-24	@ PHX	35	35.31	-0.9%	23	9/16	9/15	0/1	5/7	3	14	17	17	0	0	2	3	-5.0	60%
2026-03-20	vs TOR	37	34.41	+7.5%	22	9/14	8/12	1/2	3/5	2	6	8	9	1	1	2	5	-2.0	68%
2026-03-18	@ MEM	39	34.6	+12.7%	29	11/19	9/15	2/4	5/8	2	12	14	9	1	3	10	4	-4.0	64%
2026-03-17	vs PHI	25	35.53	-29.6%	8	4/7	4/6	0/1	0/0	0	7	7	14	0	0	5	4	+14.0	57%
2026-03-14	@ LAL	43	35.11	+22.5%	24	10/19	8/13	2/6	2/2	2	14	16	14	5	1	4	2	+6.0	60%

All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.

HISTORY

Season and milestone evidence

DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26

How often did the threshold occur?

historical frequency

These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.

20+ POINTS90.0%54/60 games

10+ REBOUNDS71.7%43/60 games

5+ ASSISTS96.7%58/60 games

2+ THREES51.7%31/60 games

SEASON HISTORY

Regular-season production

accepted player-safe games

Season	Team(s)	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%
2025–26	DEN	60	34.9	28.3	12.6	10.5	57.4%	38.9%	83.5%
2024–25	DEN	70	36.8	29.6	12.7	10.2	57.7%	41.8%	80.0%
2023–24	DEN	79	34.6	26.4	12.4	9.0	58.3%	35.9%	81.7%
2022–23	DEN	69	33.7	24.5	11.8	9.8	63.2%	38.3%	82.2%
2021–22	DEN	74	33.5	27.1	13.8	7.9	58.3%	33.7%	81.0%
2020–21	DEN	72	34.5	26.4	10.8	8.3	56.6%	38.8%	86.8%
2019–20	DEN	73	32.0	19.9	9.7	7.0	52.8%	31.4%	81.7%

AF-PLAYER HISTORY

Season by season

Season	Team	G	AF-Player	Rank	PH$	Band
2025–26	DEN	66	79.3	#1 / 409	28.4M	High Value
2024–25	DEN	84	81.9	#1 / 422	29.7M	High Value
2023–24	DEN	91	79.3	#1 / 409	29.8M	High Value
2022–23	DEN	89	80.2	#1 / 408	29.8M	High Value
2021–22	DEN	79	79.3	#1 / 423	29.1M	High Value
2020–21	DEN	82	77.8	#1 / 410	29.8M	High Value
2019–20	DEN	92	66.4	#6 / 385	29.4M	High Value

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.

CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY

Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.

governed identity

Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.

Open team profile

IMPACT

Rating and role context

AF-PLAYER

Measured production, 2025–26

#1 OF 409

AF-PLAYER79.3descriptive index, not a win probability

NBA RANK#1of 409 ranked

PH$28.4MHigh Value

SAMPLE66observed games

Ball security

Box defence

Creation

Efficiency

Rebounding

Scoring

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.

E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE

Distinct signals, side by side

descriptive · current role + historical rating

Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.

VALUE OVER ROLE+4.8 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct

AF MOVEMENT0.0 pp2024–25 → 2025–26

ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+6.7 min vs latest observed MPG

STAR DEPENDENCY100-2.4 pp next-game What If impact

Player movement Opportunities Compare players

Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.

PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26

Pregame role and with/without context

descriptive · not causal

Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.

DEN

Denver Nuggets

EXPECTED MIN30.2

SCORING SHARE22.5%

CREATION SHARE35.8%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR77.8%

With/without sample did not qualify for publication.