Final audited reference season.
Denver NuggetsWEST · NORTHWEST
Denver Nuggets
Canonical ProbHoops team profile. Forecast and movement data are published only when the current release passes the operational governance gates.
playoff direct
30 NBA Cup-dependent regular-season matchups remain unassigned.
2026–27 · ASSIGNED SCHEDULE INTELLIGENCE
Forecast path ahead
Sum of governed win probabilities over 80 assigned games only — not an 82-game projection.
50.0% opponent expected-win rate · #1 is toughest.
Starts only after verified final detailed boxscores.
NEXT 5
Upcoming assigned games
2025–26 PERFORMANCE REFERENCE
AF-Score 67.2
Denver Nuggets finished the last completed season with an AF-Score of 67.2, ranked #6 of 30 in the full historical field. This describes observed team performance; it is not a 2026–27 forecast and not a win probability.
Scoring98.6
Defense39.8
Possession50.2
Creation89.3
Discipline61.5
SAME-GAMES-PLAYED EVOLUTION
How the 2025–26 profile developed
GAME 565.7
GAME 1076.9
GAME 2072.4
GAME 4164.1
GAME 6065.9
FINAL67.2
AF-SCORE HISTORY
Seven-season performance trail
2019–2059.5#9/30
2020–2166.0#4/30
2021–2257.7#11/30
2022–2365.1#3/30
2023–2468.3#3/30
2024–2568.6#4/30
2025–2667.2#6/30
All seven completed seasons now use complete 30-team, full-observed historical fields. Current 2026–27 AF-Score starts only after verified final team box scores arrive.
E67 · ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Depth, dependency and profile fit
Team Depth uses the current governed Expected Minutes allocation and the latest eligible AF-Player observations. Star Dependency combines AF-Player percentile with the player’s governed next-game What If impact percentile within this team. It is model dependency, not causal truth.
Expected-minute-weighted rated rotation.
Mechanical role split, not official bench.
Share of the governed 240-minute team accounting carrying eligible AF-Player.
Expected Minutes concentration only.
STAR DEPENDENCY
Nikola Jokić1 governed next-game sample100dependency-2.4 pp if OUTJamal Murray1 governed next-game sample73dependency-0.4 pp if OUTSpencer Jones1 governed next-game sample64dependency+0.9 pp if OUTMarvin Bagley III1 governed next-game sample55dependency-0.2 pp if OUTZeke Nnaji1 governed next-game sample48dependency-0.5 pp if OUTPROFILE FIT · box defense
Statistical profile examples only. Not a trade recommendation.
Paul ReedDET · box defense80Mitchell RobinsonBOS · box defense79Ausar ThompsonDET · box defense75Robert Williams IIIPOR · box defense71Goga BitadzeORL · box defense70PLAYER ROLE & IMPACT · 2025–26
Who carried the largest pregame role?
These player rows summarize pregame-known role and workload from the last completed season. With/without values, when shown, are residualized historical diagnostics with sample-size gates — not causal injury estimates.
PLAYERJamal Murray
EXPECTED MIN32.2
SCORING SHARE20.5%
CREATION SHARE25.3%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR82.0%
WITH/WITHOUT+1.18 residual pts
PLAYERNikola Jokic
EXPECTED MIN30.2
SCORING SHARE22.5%
CREATION SHARE35.8%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR77.8%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERTim Hardaway Jr.
EXPECTED MIN25.6
SCORING SHARE11.2%
CREATION SHARE4.7%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR85.8%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERCameron Johnson
EXPECTED MIN24.1
SCORING SHARE9.3%
CREATION SHARE8.0%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR72.5%
WITH/WITHOUT-2.55 residual pts
PLAYERBruce Brown
EXPECTED MIN23.5
SCORING SHARE6.3%
CREATION SHARE7.3%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR87.4%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERPeyton Watson
EXPECTED MIN21.9
SCORING SHARE13.1%
CREATION SHARE7.5%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR70.1%
WITH/WITHOUT-1.43 residual pts
PLAYERChristian Braun
EXPECTED MIN21.7
SCORING SHARE9.1%
CREATION SHARE9.1%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR63.1%
WITH/WITHOUT-1.22 residual pts
PLAYERSpencer Jones
EXPECTED MIN17.5
SCORING SHARE4.3%
CREATION SHARE2.6%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR73.2%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
NBA OFFICIAL AVAILABILITY
Current player status
Checking the governed NBA Official availability state.
GAME DAY
Operational status
Checking today and upcoming NBA game state.
PLAYER MILESTONES
Conditional-on-active probabilities
Current rows stay withheld until deterministic NBA-official pre-tip availability is integrated.
MOVEMENT
Release-to-release change
Movement requires two eligible published probability releases from the same season.
Attribution rule
ProbHoops does not infer a cause from a probability delta. A movement driver can be canonical only when deterministic counterfactual provenance reproduces the observed change.