Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Julian Strawther
Denver Nuggets current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER39.32025–26
NBA RANK#266of 409
PH$8.1MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN0.0governed role
NEXT GAME@ Oklahoma City Thunder2026-10-22WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN14.9
PTS7.1
REB2.0
AST1.1
STL0.4
BLK0.1
3PM1.0
FG%46.1%
3P%37.1%
FT%80.9%
+/-+0.7
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Denver Nuggets
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL34minutes
EXPECTED10.49pregame reference
DEVIATION+224.1%expanded minutes
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G8.4 PTS · 1.4 REB · 1 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G6 PTS · 1.4 REB · 1 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G5.6 PTS · 1.2 REB · 1 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G9 PTS · 1.8 REB · 1.3 AST
creation→
efficiency↓
minutes→
rebounding→
scoring↓
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS42.6%421/989
2-POINT52.7%237/450
3-POINT34.1%184/539
FREE THROW79.9%151/189
EFFECTIVE FG%51.9%
TRUE SHOOTING%54.9%
AST / TO1.65
PTS PER 3615.73rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 81 | 16.49 | 7.17 | 1.79 | 1.19 | 1.09 | 0.46 | 0.14 |
| Away | 85 | 15.98 | 7.01 | 1.91 | 1.06 | 1.13 | 0.48 | 0.19 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.5 | +0.2 | -0.1 | +0.1 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.12 | high |
| minutes | 8 | 17 | 24 | 16.23 | high |
| points | 0 | 6 | 12 | 7.09 | high |
| rebounds | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1.85 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | @ SAS | 34 | 10.49 | +224.1% | 25 | 9/19 | 5/11 | 4/8 | 3/4 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +2.0 | 60% |
| 2026-04-06 | vs POR | 19 | 8.32 | +128.2% | 11 | 4/5 | 3/3 | 1/2 | 2/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4.0 | 94% |
| 2026-04-04 | vs SAS | 11 | 8.98 | +22.5% | 6 | 2/5 | 0/1 | 2/4 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8.0 | 60% |
| 2026-03-29 | vs GSW | 18 | 7.06 | +154.9% | 7 | 3/7 | 2/4 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +7.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-27 | vs UTA | 5 | 7.04 | -28.9% | 0 | 0/2 | 0/1 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4.0 | 0% |
| 2026-03-24 | @ PHX | 8 | 8.63 | -7.3% | 7 | 2/3 | 1/2 | 1/1 | 2/2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +12.0 | 90% |
| 2026-03-18 | @ MEM | 6 | 10.06 | -40.4% | 2 | 1/2 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-17 | vs PHI | 13 | 10.99 | +18.3% | 5 | 2/7 | 1/5 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.0 | 36% |
| 2026-03-12 | @ SAS | 15 | 17.34 | -13.5% | 10 | 4/6 | 2/2 | 2/4 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -11.0 | 83% |
| 2026-03-11 | vs HOU | 8 | 18.96 | -57.8% | 6 | 2/3 | 0/1 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3.0 | 100% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS5.9%3/51 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/51 games
5+ ASSISTS2.0%1/51 games
2+ THREES27.5%14/51 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | DEN | 53 | 39.3 | #266 / 409 | 8.1M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | DEN | 74 | 32.2 | #376 / 422 | 6.8M | Depth |
| 2023–24 | DEN | 53 | 28.3 | #388 / 409 | 5.5M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER39.3descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#266of 409 ranked
PH$8.1MDepth
SAMPLE53observed games
Ball security68
Box defence23
Creation26
Efficiency49
Rebounding19
Scoring47
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role
AF MOVEMENT+24.1 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-14.7 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
DEN
Denver Nuggets
EXPECTED MIN10.0
SCORING SHARE4.9%
CREATION SHARE3.0%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR65.3%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.