Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Marvin Bagley III
Denver Nuggets current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER61.22025–26
NBA RANK#15of 409
PH$20.7MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN27.0governed role
NEXT GAME@ Oklahoma City Thunder2026-10-22WHAT IF IMPACT-0.2 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN20.3
PTS10.6
REB6.2
AST1.5
STL0.4
BLK0.7
3PM0.3
FG%62.4%
3P%45.5%
FT%66.1%
+/--3.5
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Denver Nuggets
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED21.1pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G10.4 PTS · 7.4 REB · 0.4 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G2.6 PTS · 0.9 REB · 0.3 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G9.9 PTS · 6.4 REB · 0.4 AST
creation↓
efficiency↓
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS53.8%1248/2320
2-POINT58.2%1139/1956
3-POINT29.9%109/364
FREE THROW68.3%449/657
EFFECTIVE FG%56.1%
TRUE SHOOTING%58.5%
AST / TO0.92
PTS PER 3618.73rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 137 | 21.48 | 11.2 | 6.27 | 0.83 | 0.41 | 0.39 | 0.53 |
| Away | 137 | 21.37 | 11.09 | 6.25 | 1.09 | 0.39 | 0.47 | 0.59 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.0 | -0.3 | +0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.96 | high |
| minutes | 15 | 22 | 29 | 21.43 | medium |
| points | 6 | 11 | 16 | 11.15 | high |
| rebounds | 3 | 6 | 9 | 6.26 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES4516.4% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | @ POR | 27 | 19.76 | +36.7% | 26 | 11/14 | 8/9 | 3/5 | 1/4 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | +6.0 | 83% |
| 2026-03-21 | vs LAC | 25 | 16.52 | +51.4% | 17 | 7/8 | 5/6 | 2/2 | 1/3 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -9.0 | 91% |
| 2026-03-18 | vs ATL | 16 | 14.55 | +10% | 2 | 1/2 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -12.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-13 | vs CLE | 27 | 11.21 | +140.8% | 4 | 2/5 | 2/4 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -9.0 | 40% |
| 2026-03-10 | @ ATL | 21 | 12.3 | +70.7% | 7 | 3/7 | 2/5 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +8.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-08 | @ TOR | 20 | 10.95 | +82.7% | 6 | 2/6 | 2/5 | 0/1 | 2/2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -16.0 | 44% |
| 2026-02-26 | vs SAC | 29 | — | — | 10 | 5/6 | 5/6 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -2.0 | 83% |
| 2026-02-24 | @ BKN | 20 | — | — | 22 | 10/13 | 10/13 | 0/0 | 2/4 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +5.0 | 75% |
| 2026-02-20 | @ MIN | 24 | — | — | 15 | 5/9 | 4/7 | 1/2 | 4/4 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -5.0 | 70% |
| 2026-02-12 | @ LAL | 20 | — | — | 7 | 3/7 | 3/6 | 0/1 | 1/2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -18.0 | 44% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS8.2%4/49 games
10+ REBOUNDS10.2%5/49 games
5+ ASSISTS4.1%2/49 games
2+ THREES4.1%2/49 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | WASDAL | 49 | 20.3 | 10.6 | 6.2 | 1.5 | 62.4% | 45.5% | 66.1% |
| 2024–25 | MEMWAS | 30 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 52.4% | 16.7% | 65.7% |
| 2023–24 | WASDET | 50 | 21.0 | 11.7 | 6.2 | 1.1 | 58.6% | 39.1% | 76.2% |
| 2022–23 | DET | 42 | 23.6 | 12.0 | 6.4 | 0.9 | 52.9% | 28.8% | 75.0% |
| 2021–22 | DETSAC | 48 | 23.9 | 11.3 | 7.0 | 0.8 | 50.4% | 23.7% | 66.3% |
| 2020–21 | SAC | 42 | 26.0 | 14.0 | 7.4 | 1.0 | 50.3% | 34.3% | 56.6% |
| 2019–20 | SAC | 13 | 25.7 | 14.2 | 7.5 | 0.8 | 46.7% | 18.2% | 80.7% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | WAS | 49 | 61.2 | #15 / 409 | 20.7M | Core |
| 2024–25 | MEM | 33 | 51.6 | #101 / 422 | 12.7M | Rotation |
| 2023–24 | DET | 50 | 56.5 | #51 / 409 | 18.8M | Core |
| 2022–23 | DET | 42 | 47.4 | #134 / 408 | 13.5M | Rotation |
| 2021–22 | DET | 61 | 44.3 | #188 / 423 | 12.2M | Rotation |
| 2020–21 | SAC | 42 | 46.7 | #156 / 410 | 13.2M | Rotation |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER61.2descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#15of 409 ranked
PH$20.7MCore
SAMPLE49observed games
Ball security53
Box defence38
Creation25
Efficiency87
Rebounding82
Scoring53
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+39.0 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+20.3 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+6.7 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY55-0.2 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
WAS
Washington Wizards
EXPECTED MIN13.2
SCORING SHARE8.6%
CREATION SHARE5.4%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR66.0%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.
DAL
Dallas Mavericks
EXPECTED MIN17.1
SCORING SHARE10.5%
CREATION SHARE4.9%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR70.2%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.