Final audited reference season.
Washington WizardsEAST · SOUTHEAST
Washington Wizards
Canonical ProbHoops team profile. Forecast and movement data are published only when the current release passes the operational governance gates.
out
30 NBA Cup-dependent regular-season matchups remain unassigned.
2026–27 · ASSIGNED SCHEDULE INTELLIGENCE
Forecast path ahead
Sum of governed win probabilities over 80 assigned games only — not an 82-game projection.
50.3% opponent expected-win rate · #1 is toughest.
Starts only after verified final detailed boxscores.
NEXT 5
Upcoming assigned games
2025–26 PERFORMANCE REFERENCE
AF-Score 12.8
Washington Wizards finished the last completed season with an AF-Score of 12.8, ranked #30 of 30 in the full historical field. This describes observed team performance; it is not a 2026–27 forecast and not a win probability.
Scoring20.5
Defense6.6
Possession10.2
Creation9.2
Discipline18.8
SAME-GAMES-PLAYED EVOLUTION
How the 2025–26 profile developed
GAME 537.4
GAME 1019.8
GAME 2016.4
GAME 4117.8
GAME 6016.8
FINAL12.8
AF-SCORE HISTORY
Seven-season performance trail
2019–2038.1#23/30
2020–2144.7#23/30
2021–2243.5#22/30
2022–2348.1#21/30
2023–2424.6#27/30
2024–2512.0#30/30
2025–2612.8#30/30
All seven completed seasons now use complete 30-team, full-observed historical fields. Current 2026–27 AF-Score starts only after verified final team box scores arrive.
E67 · ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Depth, dependency and profile fit
Team Depth uses the current governed Expected Minutes allocation and the latest eligible AF-Player observations. Star Dependency combines AF-Player percentile with the player’s governed next-game What If impact percentile within this team. It is model dependency, not causal truth.
Expected-minute-weighted rated rotation.
Mechanical role split, not official bench.
Share of the governed 240-minute team accounting carrying eligible AF-Player.
Expected Minutes concentration only.
STAR DEPENDENCY
Anthony Davis1 governed next-game sample88dependency-2.2 pp if OUTJustin Champagnie1 governed next-game sample73dependency-0.7 pp if OUTDeandre Ayton1 governed next-game sample70dependency-0.6 pp if OUTAnthony Gill1 governed next-game sample69dependency-1.2 pp if OUTBilal Coulibaly1 governed next-game sample40dependency-0.5 pp if OUTPROFILE FIT · creation
Statistical profile examples only. Not a trade recommendation.
Davion MitchellMIA · creation92Cam SpencerMEM · creation91T.J. McConnellIND · creation89Andrew NembhardIND · creation89Tre JonesCHI · creation88PLAYER ROLE & IMPACT · 2025–26
Who carried the largest pregame role?
These player rows summarize pregame-known role and workload from the last completed season. With/without values, when shown, are residualized historical diagnostics with sample-size gates — not causal injury estimates.
PLAYERBub Carrington
EXPECTED MIN27.3
SCORING SHARE8.8%
CREATION SHARE18.1%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR87.1%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERCJ McCollum
EXPECTED MIN25.8
SCORING SHARE15.2%
CREATION SHARE14.6%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR78.4%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERKyshawn George
EXPECTED MIN21.3
SCORING SHARE13.6%
CREATION SHARE18.6%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR68.8%
WITH/WITHOUT-1.56 residual pts
PLAYERAlex Sarr
EXPECTED MIN19.5
SCORING SHARE15.6%
CREATION SHARE11.6%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR67.0%
WITH/WITHOUT-1.64 residual pts
PLAYERT. Johnson
EXPECTED MIN18.8
SCORING SHARE11.5%
CREATION SHARE8.0%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR70.9%
WITH/WITHOUT+0.03 residual pts
PLAYERBilal Coulibaly
EXPECTED MIN18.6
SCORING SHARE9.5%
CREATION SHARE11.1%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR66.2%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERJustin Champagnie
EXPECTED MIN17.0
SCORING SHARE7.1%
CREATION SHARE4.3%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR79.3%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERW. Riley
EXPECTED MIN16.3
SCORING SHARE6.6%
CREATION SHARE5.9%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR78.5%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
NBA OFFICIAL AVAILABILITY
Current player status
Checking the governed NBA Official availability state.
GAME DAY
Operational status
Checking today and upcoming NBA game state.
PLAYER MILESTONES
Conditional-on-active probabilities
Current rows stay withheld until deterministic NBA-official pre-tip availability is integrated.
MOVEMENT
Release-to-release change
Movement requires two eligible published probability releases from the same season.
Attribution rule
ProbHoops does not infer a cause from a probability delta. A movement driver can be canonical only when deterministic counterfactual provenance reproduces the observed change.