Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
CJ McCollum
Atlanta Hawks current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER45.62025–26
NBA RANK#169of 409
PH$16.6MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN20.7governed role
NEXT GAME@ Orlando Magic2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-1.1 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN29.6
PTS18.3
REB3.3
AST3.8
STL0.8
BLK0.5
3PM2.5
FG%45.0%
3P%36.9%
FT%76.8%
+/-+0.9
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Atlanta Hawks
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED30.21pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G11.6 PTS · 2.2 REB · 2.8 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G16.2 PTS · 2.6 REB · 4.6 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G15.1 PTS · 2.3 REB · 3.5 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G17.9 PTS · 3.1 REB · 4.6 AST
creation↑
efficiency↓
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring↓
COLD historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS45.1%3563/7906
2-POINT49.7%2216/4457
3-POINT39.1%1347/3449
FREE THROW75.9%954/1257
EFFECTIVE FG%53.6%
TRUE SHOOTING%55.7%
AST / TO2.47
PTS PER 3622.47rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 229 | 33.49 | 21.23 | 4.16 | 4.7 | 3.15 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| Away | 220 | 33.79 | 20.75 | 3.94 | 4.6 | 2.85 | 0.91 | 0.49 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.3 | +0.5 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.3 | -0.0 | +0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 3 | 4 | 6 | 4.65 | medium |
| minutes | 29.3 | 34.2 | 38 | 33.64 | low |
| points | 14 | 21 | 27 | 21 | medium |
| rebounds | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4.05 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES173.8% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS112.5%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | vs CLE | 24 | 31.13 | -22.9% | 29 | 11/16 | 5/8 | 6/8 | 1/2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +22.0 | 86% |
| 2026-04-08 | @ CLE | 32 | 31.03 | +3.1% | 12 | 6/16 | 6/13 | 0/3 | 0/0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -4.0 | 38% |
| 2026-04-06 | vs NYK | 35 | 30.88 | +13.4% | 17 | 7/19 | 4/11 | 3/8 | 0/0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4.0 | 45% |
| 2026-04-01 | @ ORL | 34 | 29.13 | +16.7% | 9 | 4/13 | 3/9 | 1/4 | 0/1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +21.0 | 34% |
| 2026-03-30 | vs BOS | 30 | 28.99 | +3.5% | 14 | 6/17 | 4/11 | 2/6 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +11.0 | 41% |
| 2026-03-28 | vs SAC | 30 | 28.36 | +5.8% | 22 | 9/17 | 7/10 | 2/7 | 2/4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1.0 | 59% |
| 2026-03-27 | @ BOS | 34 | 27.56 | +23.4% | 21 | 8/20 | 5/10 | 3/10 | 2/3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2.0 | 49% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ DET | 35 | 27.41 | +27.7% | 27 | 10/21 | 5/9 | 5/12 | 2/2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -16.0 | 62% |
| 2026-03-23 | vs MEM | 22 | 28.23 | -22.1% | 15 | 5/11 | 2/6 | 3/5 | 2/2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +31.0 | 63% |
| 2026-03-21 | vs GSW | 29 | 28.22 | +2.8% | 23 | 10/16 | 9/11 | 1/5 | 2/4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +30.0 | 65% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS40.5%30/74 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/74 games
5+ ASSISTS29.7%22/74 games
2+ THREES64.9%48/74 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | WASATL | 74 | 29.6 | 18.3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 45.0% | 36.9% | 76.8% |
| 2024–25 | NOP | 56 | 32.8 | 21.1 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 44.4% | 37.3% | 71.7% |
| 2023–24 | NOP | 65 | 32.6 | 20.1 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 45.8% | 43.1% | 82.6% |
| 2022–23 | NOP | 75 | 35.4 | 20.9 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 43.7% | 38.8% | 76.9% |
| 2021–22 | NOPPOR | 62 | 34.6 | 22.1 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 46.1% | 38.8% | 68.2% |
| 2020–21 | POR | 47 | 34.0 | 23.1 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 45.8% | 40.2% | 81.2% |
| 2019–20 | POR | 70 | 36.5 | 22.2 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 45.1% | 37.9% | 75.7% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | ATL | 80 | 45.6 | #169 / 409 | 16.6M | Core |
| 2024–25 | NOP | 56 | 47.0 | #167 / 422 | 15M | Core |
| 2023–24 | NOP | 71 | 51.6 | #94 / 409 | 20.7M | Core |
| 2022–23 | NOP | 76 | 45.5 | #168 / 408 | 16.8M | Core |
| 2021–22 | NOP | 70 | 51.4 | #94 / 423 | 21.6M | Core |
| 2020–21 | POR | 54 | 54.7 | #60 / 410 | 22.1M | Core |
| 2019–20 | POR | 76 | 46.4 | #132 / 385 | 19.2M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER45.6descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#169of 409 ranked
PH$16.6MCore
SAMPLE80observed games
Ball security74
Box defence28
Creation47
Efficiency40
Rebounding15
Scoring76
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+17.8 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-1.8 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-9.1 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY44-1.1 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
WAS
Washington Wizards
EXPECTED MIN25.8
SCORING SHARE15.2%
CREATION SHARE14.6%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR78.4%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.
ATL
Atlanta Hawks
EXPECTED MIN27.2
SCORING SHARE15.9%
CREATION SHARE13.5%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR85.6%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.