Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Alex Sarr
Washington Wizards current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER52.42025–26
NBA RANK#83of 409
PH$17.7MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN0.0governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Milwaukee Bucks2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN27.2
PTS16.5
REB7.3
AST2.8
STL0.8
BLK2.0
3PM1.0
FG%48.3%
3P%33.8%
FT%69.2%
+/--7.5
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Washington Wizards
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED9.29pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G17.6 PTS · 10.4 REB · 2.8 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G0.8 PTS · 0.9 REB · 0.3 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G17.8 PTS · 8.6 REB · 2.6 AST
creation↓
efficiency↓
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS43.8%579/1321
2-POINT49.5%441/891
3-POINT32.1%138/430
FREE THROW66.2%188/284
EFFECTIVE FG%49.0%
TRUE SHOOTING%51.3%
AST / TO1.5
PTS PER 3618.94rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 50 | 27.64 | 14.72 | 6.66 | 2.68 | 1.44 | 0.78 | 1.96 |
| Away | 54 | 26.63 | 13.85 | 7.09 | 2.43 | 1.22 | 0.65 | 1.48 |
| Home − Away | — | +1.0 | +0.9 | -0.4 | +0.3 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.5 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2.55 | high |
| minutes | 24.6 | 27 | 31 | 27.12 | low |
| points | 8.6 | 14 | 19 | 14.27 | medium |
| rebounds | 4 | 6 | 9.4 | 6.88 | medium |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES2019.2% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | @ GSW | 23 | 12.52 | +83.8% | 8 | 3/10 | 2/6 | 1/4 | 1/2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -8.0 | 37% |
| 2026-03-21 | vs OKC | 22 | 14 | +57.1% | 14 | 5/12 | 3/7 | 2/5 | 2/2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | +4.0 | 54% |
| 2026-03-19 | vs DET | 21 | 11.5 | +82.6% | 2 | 1/12 | 1/9 | 0/3 | 0/0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9.0 | 8% |
| 2026-03-14 | @ BOS | 22 | 8.32 | +164.5% | 4 | 1/9 | 0/4 | 1/5 | 1/2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -25.0 | 20% |
| 2026-03-12 | @ ORL | 23 | 6.36 | +261.6% | 16 | 6/12 | 5/8 | 1/4 | 3/4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -14.0 | 58% |
| 2026-03-10 | @ MIA | 20 | 1.63 | +1126.4% | 28 | 12/19 | 8/12 | 4/7 | 0/0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -9.0 | 74% |
| 2026-02-08 | vs MIA | 26 | — | — | 12 | 6/13 | 6/12 | 0/1 | 0/2 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -5.0 | 43% |
| 2026-02-05 | @ DET | 18 | — | — | 12 | 5/10 | 3/6 | 2/4 | 0/1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2.0 | 57% |
| 2026-02-03 | vs NYK | 25 | — | — | 11 | 4/11 | 3/8 | 1/3 | 2/4 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -31.0 | 43% |
| 2026-01-30 | vs LAL | 28 | — | — | 16 | 8/14 | 8/11 | 0/3 | 0/0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -30.0 | 57% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS30.4%14/46 games
10+ REBOUNDS26.1%12/46 games
5+ ASSISTS17.4%8/46 games
2+ THREES28.3%13/46 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | WAS | 46 | 52.4 | #83 / 409 | 17.7M | Core |
| 2024–25 | WAS | 58 | 36.5 | #323 / 422 | 8.2M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER52.4descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#83of 409 ranked
PH$17.7MCore
SAMPLE46observed games
Ball security69
Box defence63
Creation37
Efficiency38
Rebounding62
Scoring73
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role
AF MOVEMENT+56.4 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-27.2 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
WAS
Washington Wizards
EXPECTED MIN19.5
SCORING SHARE15.6%
CREATION SHARE11.6%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR67.0%
-1.64 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 22 normal-load / 4 nonparticipation games.