Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Deandre Ayton
Washington Wizards current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER54.12025–26
NBA RANK#62of 409
PH$23.1MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN20.1governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Milwaukee Bucks2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-0.6 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN27.3
PTS12.3
REB8.0
AST0.8
STL0.6
BLK0.9
3PM0.0
FG%67.3%
3P%—
FT%63.7%
+/--0.3
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Washington Wizards
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED25.13pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G6.8 PTS · 2.6 REB · 0.2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G9 PTS · 5.6 REB · 0.2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G8.1 PTS · 3.7 REB · 0.3 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G9.2 PTS · 6.7 REB · 0.5 AST
creation↓
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring↓
COLD historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS60.1%2764/4597
2-POINT61.1%2736/4481
3-POINT24.1%28/116
FREE THROW73.9%649/878
EFFECTIVE FG%60.4%
TRUE SHOOTING%62.3%
AST / TO0.9
PTS PER 3618.76rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 198 | 30.02 | 15.94 | 10.1 | 1.37 | 0.06 | 0.72 | 1.04 |
| Away | 196 | 30.43 | 15.55 | 10.06 | 1.56 | 0.08 | 0.64 | 0.88 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.4 | +0.4 | +0.0 | -0.2 | -0.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.46 | high |
| minutes | 25.8 | 31 | 35 | 30.23 | low |
| points | 9 | 16 | 22 | 15.75 | medium |
| rebounds | 6 | 10 | 13 | 10.08 | medium |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES19248.7% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | vs PHX | 30 | 23.93 | +25.4% | 10 | 4/8 | 4/8 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +19.0 | 56% |
| 2026-04-09 | @ GSW | 31 | 22.84 | +35.7% | 21 | 9/11 | 9/11 | 0/0 | 3/4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +19.0 | 82% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs OKC | 23 | 20.4 | +12.7% | 3 | 1/4 | 1/4 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -26.0 | 31% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ OKC | 20 | 21.43 | -6.7% | 8 | 4/7 | 4/7 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -23.0 | 57% |
| 2026-03-31 | vs CLE | 28 | 21.85 | +28.2% | 18 | 8/13 | 8/13 | 0/0 | 2/3 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +10.0 | 63% |
| 2026-03-30 | vs WAS | 22 | 23.26 | -5.4% | 12 | 5/5 | 5/5 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +9.0 | 102% |
| 2026-03-27 | vs BKN | 22 | 24.54 | -10.3% | 9 | 3/3 | 3/3 | 0/0 | 3/4 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +5.0 | 95% |
| 2026-03-23 | @ DET | 27 | 26.81 | +0.7% | 13 | 5/6 | 5/6 | 0/0 | 3/4 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6.0 | 84% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ ORL | 29 | 27.61 | +5% | 9 | 3/4 | 3/4 | 0/0 | 3/6 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +2.0 | 68% |
| 2026-03-19 | @ MIA | 29 | 27.76 | +4.5% | 6 | 3/5 | 3/5 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | +13.0 | 60% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS18.8%13/69 games
10+ REBOUNDS39.1%27/69 games
5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/69 games
2+ THREES0.0%0/69 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | LAL | 69 | 27.3 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 0.8 | 67.3% | — | 63.7% |
| 2024–25 | POR | 39 | 30.2 | 14.5 | 10.1 | 1.6 | 57.0% | 20.0% | 66.7% |
| 2023–24 | POR | 54 | 32.3 | 16.7 | 11.1 | 1.6 | 56.9% | 10.0% | 82.3% |
| 2022–23 | PHX | 67 | 30.4 | 18.0 | 10.0 | 1.7 | 58.9% | 29.2% | 76.0% |
| 2021–22 | PHX | 58 | 29.5 | 17.2 | 10.2 | 1.4 | 63.4% | 36.8% | 74.7% |
| 2020–21 | PHX | 69 | 30.6 | 14.4 | 10.5 | 1.4 | 62.7% | 20.0% | 76.9% |
| 2019–20 | PHX | 38 | 32.5 | 18.2 | 11.5 | 1.9 | 54.6% | 23.1% | 75.3% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | LAL | 79 | 54.1 | #62 / 409 | 23.1M | Core |
| 2024–25 | POR | 39 | 49.5 | #131 / 422 | 14.7M | Rotation |
| 2023–24 | POR | 54 | 51.0 | #103 / 409 | 17.8M | Core |
| 2022–23 | PHX | 77 | 52.9 | #73 / 408 | 21.7M | Core |
| 2021–22 | PHX | 72 | 61.6 | #15 / 423 | 26.1M | High Value |
| 2020–21 | PHX | 91 | 59.0 | #31 / 410 | 27.3M | High Value |
| 2019–20 | PHX | 53 | 52.8 | #70 / 385 | 18.1M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER54.1descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#62of 409 ranked
PH$23.1MCore
SAMPLE79observed games
Ball security60
Box defence37
Creation7
Efficiency85
Rebounding75
Scoring37
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+46.8 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+15.9 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-7.4 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY70-0.6 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
LAL
Los Angeles Lakers
EXPECTED MIN24.2
SCORING SHARE10.6%
CREATION SHARE3.1%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR78.7%
+1.32 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 49 normal-load / 7 nonparticipation games.