Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Bub Carrington
Washington Wizards current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER33.92025–26
NBA RANK#340of 409
PH$8.3MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN29.6governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Milwaukee Bucks2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-0.5 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN28.1
PTS10.4
REB3.5
AST4.7
STL0.6
BLK0.2
3PM2.0
FG%41.4%
3P%39.4%
FT%72.3%
+/--9.7
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Washington Wizards
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED30.65pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G11.8 PTS · 1.4 REB · 6.4 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G4.5 PTS · 0.6 REB · 2.4 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G10.6 PTS · 2.6 REB · 5.8 AST
creation↑
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring↑
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS40.5%510/1260
2-POINT46.0%256/557
3-POINT36.1%254/703
FREE THROW76.3%129/169
EFFECTIVE FG%50.6%
TRUE SHOOTING%52.6%
AST / TO2.22
PTS PER 3612.36rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 69 | 29.8 | 10.59 | 3.91 | 4.46 | 1.96 | 0.68 | 0.28 |
| Away | 71 | 28.59 | 9.46 | 3.63 | 4.49 | 1.68 | 0.63 | 0.2 |
| Home − Away | — | +1.2 | +1.1 | +0.3 | -0.0 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 2 | 4 | 7 | 4.48 | high |
| minutes | 23 | 29 | 35 | 29.19 | low |
| points | 5 | 10 | 14.2 | 10.02 | high |
| rebounds | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3.77 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES53.6% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS32.1%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | @ MIA | 27 | 30.28 | -10.8% | 11 | 4/13 | 1/5 | 3/8 | 0/1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -25.0 | 41% |
| 2026-04-01 | vs PHI | 31 | 30.26 | +2.5% | 13 | 5/14 | 2/6 | 3/8 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -33.0 | 46% |
| 2026-03-30 | @ LAL | 28 | 31.18 | -10.2% | 5 | 2/6 | 1/3 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -20.0 | 42% |
| 2026-03-27 | @ GSW | 26 | 30.7 | -15.3% | 16 | 6/10 | 2/5 | 4/5 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -5.0 | 80% |
| 2026-03-22 | @ NYK | 34 | 29.24 | +16.3% | 14 | 4/9 | 3/5 | 1/4 | 5/8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -33.0 | 56% |
| 2026-03-21 | vs OKC | 33 | 28.92 | +14.1% | 19 | 7/12 | 3/5 | 4/7 | 1/3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -7.0 | 71% |
| 2026-03-19 | vs DET | 35 | 26.59 | +31.6% | 10 | 4/11 | 3/5 | 1/6 | 1/1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -25.0 | 44% |
| 2026-03-17 | vs DET | 37 | 23.62 | +56.7% | 30 | 12/16 | 6/8 | 6/8 | 0/0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -11.0 | 94% |
| 2026-03-14 | @ BOS | 22 | 23.61 | -6.8% | 2 | 1/2 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +8.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-12 | @ ORL | 28 | 26.02 | +7.6% | 12 | 5/7 | 5/5 | 0/2 | 2/2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +11.0 | 76% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS6.0%4/67 games
10+ REBOUNDS1.5%1/67 games
5+ ASSISTS50.7%34/67 games
2+ THREES58.2%39/67 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | WAS | 67 | 33.9 | #340 / 409 | 8.3M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | WAS | 73 | 27.9 | #405 / 422 | 7.2M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER33.9descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#340of 409 ranked
PH$8.3MDepth
SAMPLE67observed games
Ball security25
Box defence17
Creation62
Efficiency35
Rebounding14
Scoring31
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-50.0 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+12.9 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGESTABLE+1.5 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY25-0.5 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
WAS
Washington Wizards
EXPECTED MIN27.3
SCORING SHARE8.8%
CREATION SHARE18.1%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR87.1%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.