Final audited reference season.
Memphis GrizzliesWEST · SOUTHWEST
Memphis Grizzlies
Canonical ProbHoops team profile. Forecast and movement data are published only when the current release passes the operational governance gates.
out
30 NBA Cup-dependent regular-season matchups remain unassigned.
2026–27 · ASSIGNED SCHEDULE INTELLIGENCE
Forecast path ahead
Sum of governed win probabilities over 80 assigned games only — not an 82-game projection.
50.6% opponent expected-win rate · #1 is toughest.
Starts only after verified final detailed boxscores.
NEXT 5
Upcoming assigned games
2025–26 PERFORMANCE REFERENCE
AF-Score 33.0
Memphis Grizzlies finished the last completed season with an AF-Score of 33.0, ranked #25 of 30 in the full historical field. This describes observed team performance; it is not a 2026–27 forecast and not a win probability.
Scoring31.0
Defense24.6
Possession29.6
Creation55.8
Discipline45.9
SAME-GAMES-PLAYED EVOLUTION
How the 2025–26 profile developed
GAME 550.6
GAME 1045.9
GAME 2049.9
GAME 4151.6
GAME 6047.6
FINAL33.0
AF-SCORE HISTORY
Seven-season performance trail
2019–2051.1#16/30
2020–2159.5#8/30
2021–2269.2#2/30
2022–2363.8#4/30
2023–2429.8#26/30
2024–2560.4#10/30
2025–2633.0#25/30
All seven completed seasons now use complete 30-team, full-observed historical fields. Current 2026–27 AF-Score starts only after verified final team box scores arrive.
E67 · ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Depth, dependency and profile fit
Team Depth uses the current governed Expected Minutes allocation and the latest eligible AF-Player observations. Star Dependency combines AF-Player percentile with the player’s governed next-game What If impact percentile within this team. It is model dependency, not causal truth.
Expected-minute-weighted rated rotation.
Mechanical role split, not official bench.
Share of the governed 240-minute team accounting carrying eligible AF-Player.
Expected Minutes concentration only.
STAR DEPENDENCY
GG Jackson1 governed next-game sample77dependency-1.2 pp if OUTIsaiah Stewart1 governed next-game sample73dependency-0.9 pp if OUTCam Spencer1 governed next-game sample61dependency-0.2 pp if OUTJerami Grant1 governed next-game sample56dependency+0.6 pp if OUTKris Murray1 governed next-game sample54dependency-1.7 pp if OUTPROFILE FIT · rebounding
Statistical profile examples only. Not a trade recommendation.
Rudy GobertMIN · rebounding94Mitchell RobinsonBOS · rebounding93Donovan ClinganPOR · rebounding93Jalen DurenDET · rebounding93Kel'el WareMIL · rebounding93PLAYER ROLE & IMPACT · 2025–26
Who carried the largest pregame role?
These player rows summarize pregame-known role and workload from the last completed season. With/without values, when shown, are residualized historical diagnostics with sample-size gates — not causal injury estimates.
PLAYERJaylen Wells
EXPECTED MIN25.9
SCORING SHARE10.1%
CREATION SHARE6.1%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR86.7%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERJaren Jackson Jr.
EXPECTED MIN25.5
SCORING SHARE16.7%
CREATION SHARE6.3%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR80.2%
WITH/WITHOUT+2.91 residual pts
PLAYERC. Coward
EXPECTED MIN22.9
SCORING SHARE12.1%
CREATION SHARE9.8%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR80.3%
WITH/WITHOUT+1.10 residual pts
PLAYERSanti Aldama
EXPECTED MIN22.6
SCORING SHARE11.5%
CREATION SHARE10.1%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR77.2%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERCam Spencer
EXPECTED MIN22.1
SCORING SHARE9.8%
CREATION SHARE18.4%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR85.2%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERJock Landale
EXPECTED MIN19.2
SCORING SHARE9.7%
CREATION SHARE5.8%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR78.6%
WITH/WITHOUT-1.28 residual pts
PLAYERKentavious Caldwell-Pope
EXPECTED MIN18.1
SCORING SHARE7.4%
CREATION SHARE10.1%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR81.4%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERZach Edey
EXPECTED MIN16.0
SCORING SHARE11.4%
CREATION SHARE4.1%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR65.7%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
NBA OFFICIAL AVAILABILITY
Current player status
Checking the governed NBA Official availability state.
GAME DAY
Operational status
Checking today and upcoming NBA game state.
PLAYER MILESTONES
Conditional-on-active probabilities
Current rows stay withheld until deterministic NBA-official pre-tip availability is integrated.
MOVEMENT
Release-to-release change
Movement requires two eligible published probability releases from the same season.
Attribution rule
ProbHoops does not infer a cause from a probability delta. A movement driver can be canonical only when deterministic counterfactual provenance reproduces the observed change.