Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Santi Aldama
Dallas Mavericks current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER49.72025–26
NBA RANK#113of 409
PH$15.5MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN35.6governed role
NEXT GAME@ Houston Rockets2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-1.7 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN27.9
PTS13.7
REB6.7
AST3.0
STL0.9
BLK0.7
3PM1.5
FG%47.5%
3P%34.4%
FT%67.3%
+/--2.2
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Dallas Mavericks
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED0.4pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G13.4 PTS · 6.8 REB · 3.2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G13.5 PTS · 7.4 REB · 3.4 AST
creation→
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding→
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS46.2%1069/2312
2-POINT57.3%683/1192
3-POINT34.5%386/1120
FREE THROW68.8%319/464
EFFECTIVE FG%54.6%
TRUE SHOOTING%56.5%
AST / TO2.11
PTS PER 3615.88rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 138 | 23.68 | 10.96 | 5.59 | 1.93 | 1.54 | 0.67 | 0.59 |
| Away | 137 | 23.19 | 9.72 | 5.31 | 2.18 | 1.27 | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.5 | +1.2 | +0.3 | -0.3 | +0.3 | +0.0 | -0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2.05 | high |
| minutes | 17 | 24 | 30.2 | 23.43 | medium |
| points | 5 | 9 | 15 | 10.34 | high |
| rebounds | 3 | 5 | 8 | 5.45 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES269.4% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS10.4%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-26 | @ HOU | 27 | 18.88 | +43% | 17 | 7/12 | 6/10 | 1/2 | 2/3 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5.0 | 64% |
| 2026-01-18 | vs ORL | 25 | — | — | 9 | 3/5 | 3/4 | 0/1 | 3/6 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +23.0 | 59% |
| 2026-01-15 | @ ORL | 30 | — | — | 18 | 6/11 | 2/7 | 4/4 | 2/3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1.0 | 73% |
| 2026-01-11 | vs BKN | 33 | — | — | 15 | 7/10 | 6/8 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +8.0 | 75% |
| 2026-01-09 | vs OKC | 29 | — | — | 15 | 6/9 | 4/5 | 2/4 | 1/2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +4.0 | 76% |
| 2026-01-07 | vs PHX | 22 | — | — | 7 | 3/8 | 3/5 | 0/3 | 1/2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -18.0 | 39% |
| 2026-01-06 | vs SAS | 24 | — | — | 10 | 3/10 | 2/4 | 1/6 | 3/3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -23.0 | 44% |
| 2026-01-04 | @ LAL | 31 | — | — | 12 | 4/13 | 4/9 | 0/4 | 4/6 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | +3.0 | 38% |
| 2026-01-02 | @ LAL | 30 | — | — | 15 | 5/12 | 2/3 | 3/9 | 2/2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +6.0 | 58% |
| 2025-12-30 | vs PHI | 36 | — | — | 15 | 6/11 | 3/5 | 3/6 | 0/0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | -10.0 | 68% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS12.2%5/41 games
10+ REBOUNDS17.1%7/41 games
5+ ASSISTS17.1%7/41 games
2+ THREES41.5%17/41 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | MEM | 41 | 49.7 | #113 / 409 | 15.5M | Core |
| 2024–25 | MEM | 70 | 53.2 | #83 / 422 | 19.8M | Core |
| 2023–24 | MEM | 61 | 40.9 | #238 / 409 | 10.7M | Rotation |
| 2022–23 | MEM | 83 | 44.6 | #182 / 408 | 13.4M | Rotation |
| 2021–22 | MEM | 61 | 31.2 | #378 / 423 | 5.6M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER49.7descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#113of 409 ranked
PH$15.5MCore
SAMPLE41observed games
Ball security76
Box defence41
Creation47
Efficiency46
Rebounding51
Scoring51
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-7.9 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-8.0 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+7.6 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY76-1.7 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
MEM
Memphis Grizzlies
EXPECTED MIN22.6
SCORING SHARE11.5%
CREATION SHARE10.1%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR77.2%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.