Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Utah Jazz current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER46.82025–26
NBA RANK#148of 409
PH$15.2MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN28.8governed role
NEXT GAME@ Memphis Grizzlies2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-0.8 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN30.3
PTS19.4
REB5.7
AST1.9
STL1.1
BLK1.4
3PM1.8
FG%47.6%
3P%35.7%
FT%80.3%
+/--1.3
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Utah Jazz
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED0.35pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G22.4 PTS · 6 REB · 2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G21.6 PTS · 6.1 REB · 1.8 AST
creation↑
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding→
scoring↑
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS46.4%2699/5820
2-POINT52.7%1963/3726
3-POINT35.1%736/2094
FREE THROW79.5%1503/1890
EFFECTIVE FG%52.7%
TRUE SHOOTING%57.4%
AST / TO0.82
PTS PER 3623.79rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 195 | 28.83 | 18.76 | 5.75 | 1.48 | 1.8 | 1.05 | 2.17 |
| Away | 201 | 29.52 | 19.79 | 5.63 | 1.7 | 1.92 | 1.03 | 1.7 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.7 | -1.0 | +0.1 | -0.2 | -0.1 | +0.0 | +0.5 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1.59 | high |
| minutes | 25 | 30 | 33.2 | 29.18 | low |
| points | 13 | 19 | 25 | 19.29 | medium |
| rebounds | 3 | 6 | 8 | 5.69 | medium |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES317.8% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-11 | vs SAC | 22 | — | — | 23 | 8/13 | 7/10 | 1/3 | 6/7 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +27.0 | 72% |
| 2026-02-09 | @ MIA | 25 | — | — | 22 | 7/19 | 5/12 | 2/7 | 6/7 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +15.0 | 50% |
| 2026-02-07 | @ ORL | 25 | — | — | 22 | 9/17 | 7/12 | 2/5 | 2/2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | +6.0 | 62% |
| 2026-02-02 | vs MIN | 31 | — | — | 30 | 8/17 | 5/11 | 3/6 | 11/11 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +7.0 | 69% |
| 2026-01-30 | @ NOP | 34 | — | — | 16 | 6/19 | 4/9 | 2/10 | 2/2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6.0 | 40% |
| 2026-01-28 | vs CHA | 33 | — | — | 26 | 10/20 | 6/11 | 4/9 | 2/2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -8.0 | 62% |
| 2026-01-26 | @ HOU | 32 | — | — | 17 | 8/17 | 7/12 | 1/5 | 0/0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -10.0 | 50% |
| 2026-01-23 | vs NOP | 32 | — | — | 26 | 7/18 | 5/10 | 2/8 | 10/11 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4 | +1.0 | 57% |
| 2026-01-21 | vs ATL | 32 | — | — | 17 | 6/12 | 5/8 | 1/4 | 4/5 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | +7.0 | 60% |
| 2026-01-18 | vs ORL | 30 | — | — | 17 | 7/15 | 5/11 | 2/4 | 1/1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +17.0 | 55% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS43.8%21/48 games
10+ REBOUNDS6.3%3/48 games
5+ ASSISTS2.1%1/48 games
2+ THREES60.4%29/48 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | UTAMEM | 48 | 30.3 | 19.4 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 47.6% | 35.7% | 80.3% |
| 2024–25 | MEM | 73 | 29.8 | 22.3 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 49.0% | 38.0% | 77.8% |
| 2023–24 | MEM | 66 | 32.2 | 22.5 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 44.4% | 32.0% | 80.8% |
| 2022–23 | MEM | 63 | 28.4 | 18.6 | 6.8 | 0.9 | 50.6% | 35.5% | 78.8% |
| 2021–22 | MEM | 78 | 27.3 | 16.3 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 41.5% | 31.9% | 82.3% |
| 2020–21 | MEM | 11 | 23.5 | 14.4 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 42.4% | 28.3% | 83.3% |
| 2019–20 | MEM | 57 | 28.4 | 17.4 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 46.9% | 39.4% | 74.7% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | MEM | 48 | 46.8 | #148 / 409 | 15.2M | Core |
| 2024–25 | MEM | 79 | 53.8 | #76 / 422 | 22.4M | Core |
| 2023–24 | MEM | 66 | 48.8 | #131 / 409 | 17.5M | Core |
| 2022–23 | MEM | 69 | 53.8 | #64 / 408 | 20.9M | Core |
| 2021–22 | MEM | 90 | 45.1 | #178 / 423 | 16.4M | Core |
| 2019–20 | MEM | 59 | 48.2 | #113 / 385 | 17M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER46.8descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#148of 409 ranked
PH$15.2MCore
SAMPLE48observed games
Ball security48
Box defence59
Creation17
Efficiency48
Rebounding32
Scoring77
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+1.7 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-18.2 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGESTABLE-1.6 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY54-0.8 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
UTA
Utah Jazz
EXPECTED MIN9.6
SCORING SHARE19.0%
CREATION SHARE9.0%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR51.2%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.
MEM
Memphis Grizzlies
EXPECTED MIN25.5
SCORING SHARE16.7%
CREATION SHARE6.3%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR80.2%
+2.91 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 42 normal-load / 3 nonparticipation games.