Final audited reference season.
Utah JazzWEST · NORTHWEST
Utah Jazz
Canonical ProbHoops team profile. Forecast and movement data are published only when the current release passes the operational governance gates.
out
30 NBA Cup-dependent regular-season matchups remain unassigned.
2026–27 · ASSIGNED SCHEDULE INTELLIGENCE
Forecast path ahead
Sum of governed win probabilities over 80 assigned games only — not an 82-game projection.
50.9% opponent expected-win rate · #1 is toughest.
Starts only after verified final detailed boxscores.
NEXT 5
Upcoming assigned games
2025–26 PERFORMANCE REFERENCE
AF-Score 34.2
Utah Jazz finished the last completed season with an AF-Score of 34.2, ranked #24 of 30 in the full historical field. This describes observed team performance; it is not a 2026–27 forecast and not a win probability.
Scoring44.6
Defense10.7
Possession33.1
Creation73.8
Discipline26.3
SAME-GAMES-PLAYED EVOLUTION
How the 2025–26 profile developed
GAME 553.0
GAME 1041.4
GAME 2039.7
GAME 4138.0
GAME 6034.9
FINAL34.2
AF-SCORE HISTORY
Seven-season performance trail
2019–2051.8#15/30
2020–2169.9#1/30
2021–2263.7#5/30
2022–2344.8#23/30
2023–2435.7#25/30
2024–2525.7#27/30
2025–2634.2#24/30
All seven completed seasons now use complete 30-team, full-observed historical fields. Current 2026–27 AF-Score starts only after verified final team box scores arrive.
E67 · ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Depth, dependency and profile fit
Team Depth uses the current governed Expected Minutes allocation and the latest eligible AF-Player observations. Star Dependency combines AF-Player percentile with the player’s governed next-game What If impact percentile within this team. It is model dependency, not causal truth.
Expected-minute-weighted rated rotation.
Mechanical role split, not official bench.
Share of the governed 240-minute team accounting carrying eligible AF-Player.
Expected Minutes concentration only.
STAR DEPENDENCY
Kyle Filipowski1 governed next-game sample84dependency-2.0 pp if OUTJaxson Hayes1 governed next-game sample77dependency-1.1 pp if OUTJusuf Nurkić1 governed next-game sample77dependency-1.7 pp if OUTBrice Sensabaugh1 governed next-game sample70dependency-1.9 pp if OUTJaren Jackson Jr.1 governed next-game sample54dependency-0.8 pp if OUTPROFILE FIT · creation
Statistical profile examples only. Not a trade recommendation.
Davion MitchellMIA · creation92Cam SpencerMEM · creation91T.J. McConnellIND · creation89Andrew NembhardIND · creation89Tre JonesCHI · creation88PLAYER ROLE & IMPACT · 2025–26
Who carried the largest pregame role?
These player rows summarize pregame-known role and workload from the last completed season. With/without values, when shown, are residualized historical diagnostics with sample-size gates — not causal injury estimates.
PLAYERKeyonte George
EXPECTED MIN27.9
SCORING SHARE19.9%
CREATION SHARE21.5%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR77.1%
WITH/WITHOUT+0.21 residual pts
PLAYERIsaiah Collier
EXPECTED MIN23.7
SCORING SHARE9.0%
CREATION SHARE23.6%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR86.4%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERLauri Markkanen
EXPECTED MIN23.7
SCORING SHARE22.6%
CREATION SHARE7.3%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR66.1%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERA. Bailey
EXPECTED MIN21.9
SCORING SHARE9.2%
CREATION SHARE5.5%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR78.3%
WITH/WITHOUT-4.99 residual pts
PLAYERKyle Filipowski
EXPECTED MIN21.0
SCORING SHARE8.2%
CREATION SHARE7.3%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR85.8%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERBrice Sensabaugh
EXPECTED MIN20.1
SCORING SHARE11.0%
CREATION SHARE4.9%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR82.0%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERSvi Mykhailiuk
EXPECTED MIN18.1
SCORING SHARE7.3%
CREATION SHARE6.3%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR72.2%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
PLAYERJusuf Nurkic
EXPECTED MIN17.6
SCORING SHARE9.7%
CREATION SHARE15.6%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR66.5%
WITH/WITHOUTsample not qualified
NBA OFFICIAL AVAILABILITY
Current player status
Checking the governed NBA Official availability state.
GAME DAY
Operational status
Checking today and upcoming NBA game state.
PLAYER MILESTONES
Conditional-on-active probabilities
Current rows stay withheld until deterministic NBA-official pre-tip availability is integrated.
MOVEMENT
Release-to-release change
Movement requires two eligible published probability releases from the same season.
Attribution rule
ProbHoops does not infer a cause from a probability delta. A movement driver can be canonical only when deterministic counterfactual provenance reproduces the observed change.